St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs – Series Preview

Coming off of a disappointing loss to the Rockies in which the Cubs offense stalled at the hands of ex-Cub Jason Marquis, who thoroughly out-pitched Rich Harden, the Cubbies play host to the rival St. Louis Cardinals for the first time in 2009.

The Cubs took care of business against St. Louis last year, taking 9 of 15 games, including a win last September that clinched the Central division for the second consecutive season.

The Cards are currently in first in the Central, sitting at 7-3, one game ahead of the second place Cubs. They lost 2 of 3 to perennial cellar dweller Pittsburgh to start the year, but since have won 6 of 7 against Pittsburgh, Houston, and Arizona.

When you think about the Redbirds in the 2000′s, one player should come to mind: Albert Pujols. Pujols is the best hitter in the game, bar none, and he is starting off the year like he wants to prove that. He has raced out to .364 average with 4 homers and 11 RBI’s. It doesn’t matter who you are and what kind of stuff you have, because you are going to have to make great pitches to keep him from hitting the ball hard, and even that is no guarantee.

You will notice some big differences from last year’s lineup for the Cardinals. Their major offseason acquisition was shortstop Khalil Greene. Greene was once a top level prospect out of Clemson, but he washed out San Diego after struggling with the bat in Petco Park. He’s playing every day against lefties while being spelled by Brendan Ryan against righties from time to time.

At third base, David Freese and Brandon Barden are splitting time filling in for Troy Glaus, and both are struggling with the bat (6-29 combined).

At second, Skip Schumaker is getting starts with Brendan Ryan at time. In the outfield, Tony LaRussa is juggling five options. You can pencil in Chris Duncan in left most games, but Skip Schumaker has gotten a couple starts. In center, Rick Ankiel is spelled by super prospect Colby Rasmus, who does the same for Ryan Ludwick in right field. Ludwick is the hottest Card coming in, batting over .400 so far this year.

The Cardinals have a team ERA hovering around 3, but there are issues at the back of the ‘pen. Jason Motte won the closer’s job out of Spring Training, but has an ERA of 11.25 so far this year. The Cardinals are currently defining “closer by committee”: they have three guys with saves (Ryan Franklin, Dennys Reyes, and Kyle McClennan), and decisions about who pitches the 9th will be based on mostly matchups.

Let’s look at the probable pitchers:

Game 1

St. Louis – Adam Wainwright

Wainwright is coming off a 2008 marked by injury, but he was solid anytime he took the mound. So far this year, he’s 1-0 in 2 starts with a 1.74 ERA. However, his WHIP is 1.55 because he’s struggled with walks (8 so far). The patient Cubs lineup could punish him for that. Current Cubs have hit Wainwright well, especially Aramis Ramirez and Ryan Theriot, who are both hitting .333 lifetime.

Sean Marshall

Coolcat makes his first start on the young season after appearing twice out of the bullpen. He had a great spring training, and I expect good things out of him all year. Sean has been solid on his career agaisnt the Cards, allowing only a .217 average to current Cardinals.

Advantage: Cardinals-moderate

Game 2

Kyle Lohse

Lohse enjoyed a career year last season, parlaying his success into a big contract. He was 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA, and has been even better in 2 starts this year. He’s 2-0 with a 1.18 ERA including a complete game 3 hit gem his last time out. Lohse has plenty of experience against the Cubs, not much of which has been very positive for him. Current Cubs are batting 52-132 (.394) against him.

Carlos Zambrano 

Carlos had his second straight quality start his last time out, but it was a battle. He allowed 10 baserunners in 6 innings, but escaped giving up on 3 runs before exiting without a decision. Skip Schumaker is a guy to watch against Carlos; he’s batting 7-19 lifetime against him. Watching Z and Pujols battle is always a pleasure as well. Pujols is only batting .259 in 54 lifetime AB’s against him, but does have 5 homeruns.

Advantage: Cubs-moderate

Game 3

Todd Wellemeyer

Over the last two years, the Louisville native and former Cub, has established himself in the Cardinals rotation. He broke in for 11 starts in 2007 and made 32 starts last year, won 13 games and posted a 3.71 ERA. He had a rough first start, but went 7 very strong innings to beat Arizona his last time out. Current Cubs do not have extensive experience against Wellemeyer, but look for Reed Johnson (5-12) to be in the lineup on Saturday.

Ryan Dempster

Dempster has had plenty of control issues his first two outings, with 6 walks total. He gave up 4 runs in his last start, but picked up his first win thanks to some run support in Miller Park. Current Cards have hit Dempster pretty hard (37-116 total), particularly Skip Schumaker, who is 7-18 lifetime.

Advantage: Cubs-slight

Game 4

Uncertain

Chris Carpenter was placed on the DL today with a rib cage strain that will sideline him for 4-8 weeks. The Cards have not announced a starter for Sunday night on ESPN.

Tedford Lilly

I don’t know why, but I like to call Lilly “Tedford”…I wish that was his real name. Lilly delivered the best start by a Cub so far this year his last time out, not allowing a hit until the 7th inning. He rebounded from a mediocre performance in Houston to run his record to 2-0. No Cardinal has hit Lilly well outside of Albert Pujols (9-28, 2 HR’s), but that’s nothing to be ashamed of.

Advantage: Uncertain-The St. Louis starter is unannounced, but it figures to be a fill-in, which bodes well for the Cubbies.