Reds/Fish Series Preview

The Cincinnati Reds roll down to the South Beach tonight for a two game series against the Florida Marlins.  The Reds come into tonight’s action winning two of their first three on a five game road trip, and improved their major league best road record to 9-4.  The Reds have won all four of their road series’ this season, and look to make it five straight in Miami.  This will not be an easy task however, as the Marlins come into action tonight atop the standings in the NL East with a record of 14-11.  The Reds find themselves battling in the NL Central as they currently sit in a second place tie with the Chicago Cubs at 13-11.   The Reds hold an overall edge in the all-time series against Florida with a record of 77-58, and have won 9 of their last 11 at Dolphin Stadium.  Here is a closer look at how these two teams match up going into tonight.

At the Dish: The Florida offense has been just about as dismal as Cincinnati’s this season, and that’s saying a lot.  The Marlins come into play ranked 27th in the majors in batting average with a .242 mark.  This is only one spot ahead of the Reds who are 28th in major league baseball at .241.  Florida does hold a decisive advantage over Cincinnati in runs scored ranking 12th in the majors with 123.  Marlin players have touched the plate 30 more times than the Reds, who rank 28th with 93 runs scored.   The Reds still rank dead last in hits at 186, while the Marlins are 21st with 207.  Neither team is big on the long ball as both rank in the lower half in home runs.  Florida has sent 25 souvenirs into the outfield seats, while the Reds have pleased the fans 19 times. 

The Marlin offense is led by 1B Jorge Cantu.  Cantu leads the team in average (.333), home runs (7), and RBI’s (25).  His 25 RBI’s are  also fourth best in the major leagues.  The Marlin’s have the potential to be a very dangerous offensive team with the likes of Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez in the lineup.  They both have struggled thus far in the season, but they have proven before what can happen if they get hot.  Hopefully, it won’t be this series. 

The Reds offense continues to be led by its stud first basemen Joey Votto.  He is batting a team best .363 at the plate, and leads Cincinnati in RBI’s at 22.  Other Reds hitters who have been slumping are now starting to come around.  Jay Bruce has upped his average to a respectable .253 and now leads the team in home runs at 6.  Brandon Phillips has been on a roll over the last week, and now has his average up to .207, which is a drastic improvement from where he was.   Reds fans are finally starting to see some light at the end of the dark tunnel that this Reds offense was in.  If they start hitting like they are capable of doing, this team could be tough to beat.

On the Hill: What the Reds lack offensively, they more than make up for it in their pitching.  Cincinnati comes into play tonight with the seventh best team ERA in the major’s at 3.91.  The Marlins however find themselves in the bottom half of the league at 4.68, which is good for 18th.  Florida pitching has given up 24 more earned runs than Cincinnati has, and opponents are batting .258 against them.  This is 12 points higher than Reds pitchers who are being hit at a .246 average.  Reds pitchers have combined to throw three shutouts in their past four games.  The Reds bullpen also has a decisive advantage in the late innings with David Weathers and Arthur Rhodes.  Both have combined to throw 16.1 scoreless innings this season while setting up closer Francisco Cordero.  All Cordero has done is convert 7/7 save opportunities, and for the second straight season, the Reds will be the last team to blow a save chance.  A major advantage goes to Reds pitching in this series. 

Projected Florida Marlin Lineup

1. 3B Emilio Bonifacio  .257  1 HR    6 RBI
2. C John Baker               .302   2 HR   10 RBI
3. SS Hanley Ramirez   .280    2 HR   12 RBI
4. 1B Jorge Cantu           .333     7 HR   25 RBI
5. 2B Dan Uggla              .212      4 HR   18 RBI
6. LF Jeremy Hermida  .235    3 HR   10 RBI
7. RF Cody Ross               .222     4 HR   15 RBI
8. CF Cameron Maybin  .252     2 HR    7 RBI

Pitching Probables

Game 1  Monday May 4  7:10 pm EST   T.V. FSN Ohio Radio: 700 WLW

RHP Aaron Harang (2-3 3.09) vs RHP Josh Johnson (2-0 2.60)

Aaron Harang looks to shake off a bad start in his last outing against Houston.  He lasted only five innings and gave up six runs (five earned).  Harang is 3-2 in eight career starts against the Fish with a 6.70 ERA.  Harang has been very inconsistent this season, and tonight he must be on his A game.  The defense didn’t help him much in his last start either as they booted the ball three times.  The first few innings will be the sign if Harang is on.  If he gets in trouble in the first or second, it usually means a bad night for the right hander. 

Johnson has been very impressive for Florida this year.  He is coming off a no decision against the New York Mets and Johan Santana.  He allowed three runs, nine hits, and threw for six innings.  In his quality start, he struck out a season low three batters.  Before that, he hadn’t struck out any less than six.  Johnson has made only one appearance against the Reds in his career as a reliever.  In that only appearance, he picked up a victory.

Game 2 Tuesday May 5  7:10 pm EST  TV: FSN Ohio  Radio: 700 WLW

RHP Edinson Volquez (3-2 4.45) vs RHP Chris Volstad (2-0 2.67)

Edinson Volquez is coming off his best outing of the season and quite possibly the best outing of his career.  Against Houston last Wednesday, Volquez threw eight shutout innings, giving up only one hit, and struck out six.  At one point, he sat down 17 Astros in a row.  That is the kind of performance that Reds fans have come to expect from last year’s All-Star.  Volquez went 2-0 against Florida last year with a 3.00 ERA.  If Volquez has good control  against Florida in game 2, he will be lights out.  Very few teams can beat this guy when he pitches up to his potential. 

Volstad has been the best pitcher on the Marlin’s staff so far this year.  In his last outing against the Cubs, Volstad threw seven innings, giving up three hits, and struck out five.  He did however give up back to back jack’s in earning a no decision.  He has proven to be very efficient and extremely effective on the mound, and the Reds will have their hands full with this youngster.  This game has all the makings of a classic pitcher’s duel.

My Thoughts:  This will be a very difficult series for the Reds.  They face two extremely tough pitchers with an offense that ranks toward the bottom of the league.  The Reds however have proven to be tough on the road so far this year, and are throwing their top two pitchers.  Both of these games are shaping up to be pitcher’s duels.  The Marlin’s have the edge offensively in this series, but the Reds get the nod with their pitching.  I predict that both games will be low scoring with the series ending in a split.  Harang and the Reds will reel in the fish in game one, but Volstad  will be too tough to overcome in game 2.  Hopefully I am wrong and the Reds will come home with a sweep, and 4-1 record on this road trip.