Reds/Brew Crew Preview

The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers will hook up for a two game set in Cincy tonight and tomorrow. Cincinnati is coming off of a 3-2 road trip andreturns home to a place that has not been to kind.  The Reds are just 4-7 at Great American Ballpark this season.  The Brewers currently sit in second place in the NL Central witha mark of 15-12.  The Reds sit just behind them in third with a 14-12 tally.  Cincinnati went to Milwaukee three weeks ago and took 2 of three from the Brewers.  They hope to repeat that success at home.  Here is how the teams match up.

Offense The Brewers come into play ranked 23rd in the major in hitting with a .249 average.  This is 4 points higher than the 26th ranked Reds who are struggling at .245.  The Brewers are also ranked 22nd in hits (222) and 17th in runs (121).  The Brewers can however hit the long ball.  They currently sit 5th in the league in homers with 32.  The Brewers offensive numbers are great, but they are better than the Reds who rank 27th in hits (211), 27th in runs (102), and 25th in home runs (25).  Reds pitchers have to be careful against this Brewer lineup, because one mistake and the ball ends up in the seats. 

PitchingThe Brewers hold the edge in the offensive categories, but the Reds hold an advantage in pitching.  The Reds currently lead the league in team ERA at 3.61.  The Brewers currently rank 11th at 4.17.  Milwaukee pitching has given up 118 runs this season while Cincy has given up just 103.  The Reds also hold the major league lead in shut outs pitched.  The pitching staff will be key to the Reds success in this series.

Milwaukee will be led by a host of stars.  Left fielder Ryan Braun leads the team in batting average with a .308 clip.  Micheal Cameron and Rickie Weeks share the club’s home run lead at six, while Prince Fielder has a team best 20 RBI’s.  This lineup in packed with players that  can do damage.  All of them are capable of beating the Reds on any given night. 

Brewer’s Lineup

1. 2B  Rickie Weeks                       .266   6 HR   19 RBI
2. RF Cory Hart                              .287   3 HR   10 RBI
3. LF Ryan Braun                          .308    5 HR   18 RBI
4. 1B Prince Fielder                     .250    4 HR   20 RBI
5. CF Mike Cameron                    .293    6 HR    16 RBI
6. SS J.J. Hardy                             .195    3 HR   1 2 RBI
7. 3B Bill Hall                                  .293   3 HR       8 RBI
8. C Jason Kendall                       .208    0 HR     7 RBI

Pitching Probables

Game 1   May 6     7:10 pm EST    TV: FSN Ohio     Radio:700 WLW

RHP Bronson Arroyo (4-1 4.91) vs LHP Manny Parra (0-4 5.33)

Arroyo is coming off a spectacular performance his last time out in Pittsburgh.  He went eight scoreless innings while giving up just four hits in the 4-0 victory.  He is 8-5 career vs the Brew Crew with a 3.45 ERA.  This includes a win earlier this year in Milwaukee where he pitched 6.1 innings and giving up only one run. 

Manny Parra is looking for his first win of the season for Milwaukee.  He is coming off his best start of the year against Arizona when he threw six strong innings of one run baseball.  He ended up taking a no decision in that game.  He has faced this Redlegs ball club once this year in Milwaukee and suffered a loss.  The Reds tagged him for three runs on three hits over six innings.  The Reds look to jump on him again and keep him winless on the season. 

Game 2 May 7  7:10 pm EST    TV: FSN Ohio   Radio: 700 WLW

RHP Micah Owings (1-3 4.84) vs RHP Braden Looper (2-1 3.10)

Owings reverted back to his old ways in his last start.  Two outings ago he was dominant against the Atlanta Braves.  His last time out was dreadful.  He allowed four runs in the first, and the Reds could not climb out of that hole.  He finished his day throwing 5.2 innings, giving up five earned runs, and nine hits.  More importantly, he failed to strike out a batter.  He looks to turn things around tomorrow night against the Brewers in which he is a lifetime 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA.  His first start of this season came against Milwaukee and he was tagged with a loss.  Milwaukee got em with four runs over five innings, en route to a 9-3 Brewer win.  Owings thus far has not been the solid starter out of the five slot that the Reds had hoped for. 

Looper suffered his first loss as a Milwaukee Brewer in his last outing against Arizona.  Reds fans may remember Looper as a St. Louis Cardinal where he has spent the last three years of his career.  Against Arizona, Looper took a n0-no into the fifth, but hit a wall.  He finished the night going seven innings, allowing four runs, and six hits.  Against the Reds on April 15, Looper thew six innings of three run baseball.  He also gave up six hits and struck out five in earning the victory. 

My Thoughts:  The Reds took two of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee last month.  I am here to tell you that this is a different Brewer team.  They are playing their best baseball right now, and will present a tough challenge for the Reds.  If Cincinnati is going to be successful, they need Arroyo to give them his second straight quality start.  The Reds also need Micah Owings to pitch like he did against Atlanta, and become a solid number five starter.  The Reds offense has woken up slightly over the past few games, especially Brandon Phillips who drove in six runs last night.  The Reds should be able to escape game one with a victory over a struggling Parra, especially with the way Arroyo has been throwing the ball lately.  Game two may be a different story.  Owings has been prone to running into big innings and digging the Reds into a hole.  Against this Brewer offense, he can’t make mistakes or the ball will be in souvenir city.  I predict that this series will be a split, with the Reds coming out on top in game 1, but dropping the finale tomorrow night.