First Carlos Zambrano, now Alfonso Soriano…why do I get the guys who had a bipolar 2008 season? I’ll just have to deal with it, then be made fun of for being way off on my season outlook. Today, my task is to tell you what to look for out of the Cubs mercurial left fielder (if ever the word “mercurial” were appropriate, it’s when talking about Sori) for the 2009 season.

Soriano is now entering his third year of an 8 year $136 million deal that was the largest ever given to a Cub player and the 14th largest in the history of sports. I don’t think I could imagine a player who caused me to go back and forth more often on whether the deal was a good one. For stretches of his first two years with the Cubs, Soriano has looked like an MVP. For equal stretches of that same period, Soriano has seemed like an automatic out. It can be maddening to watch him at times, but at other times he’s the most dangerous hitter in the game.

The one consistent thing I have come to expect out of Soriano is, believe it or not, his defense. The guy is going to make routine catches more difficult than they need to be, he’s going to allow an extra base every now and then, but he’s always going to lure people into thinking it’s a good idea to run on him, but it never is. He leads all left fielders in assists over the past two seasons, notching an astounding 29 total.

As fun as it is to watch Soriano slingshot people out at home, that’s not why he’s paid the big bucks. He’s paid big money for his unique combination of power and speed, and for his quick bat, arguably the quickest in the game. Soriano turns around pitches that he has no business turning around.

Soriano had respectable numbers last season, hitting .280, slugging .532, with 29 homeruns and 75 RBI’s in only 109 games. Even though those numbers are respectable, his path to those numbers was a winding one. Let’s look at his monthly splits in 2008 (minus March):

He was terrific in May and July, awful in April, June, and September, and he only had one average month: August. August was also the only month in which he really showed that he still has some 40 steal juice left in those legs.

As frustrating as Soriano’s bipolar nature with the bat is, I think the most troubling part of his 2008 season (and his ’07 season as well), is that games played number: 109. Here’s a look at Soriano’s games played numbers since his first full season in the Bronx in 2001:

Soriano’s first two years in Chicago have been the first two years in which Soriano has failed to play 145 games. I’d be lying if I told you not to worry about this. No, Soriano being headhunted by Bobby Cox last year can’t be blamed on the fact that Soriano is venturing farther into his 30’s (he turned 33 in January), but calf and hamstring issues could be.

If Soriano can’t stay healthy, his days of 20 steals in a season, let alone 40, are years behind him. He was still efficient stealing bases (19/22 last year), but he just didn’t have confidence in his legs (and the coaching staff didn’t want to risk his literally enormous bat). He and the coaching staff was confident in his running game for one full month last year (August), and Soriano batting leadoff was justifiable in that month. Unfortunately, Soriano is going to bat leadoff whether it’s justifiable or not. Soriano is a bit mentally weak, and he’s not comfortable anywhere else.

It’s not all doom and gloom for Alfonso. Soriano, like the rest of the ’08 Cubs, showed increased patience at the plate. He was a bit slower to come around than the rest of the team, but Alfonso started to catch on in August and September. In those two months, his walk rate (BB/AB) was 11.9% as opposed to 7.6% in the months prior. Thanks to that spree of pitch selection, Soriano walked 12 more times in ’08 than in ’07 despite playing 26 fewer games. A full season in which he shows that kind of patience will be a good season indeed for Soriano, especially if his legs and health with allow his running game to be at the level that we are paying him for.

To sum up, I don’t see Soriano getting back to his days of 150+ games played and 30+ steals. I see him looking a lot like he did in 2007, but with some extra run production due to a better Cubs lineup. The Cubs also have the luxury of pretty solid bats backing up Soriano in Micah Hoffpauir and Reed Johnson. Soriano will be getting his share of days off even when he is healthy: