2009 Chicago Cubbies Season Outlook : Carlos Zambrano

Folks, it’s that time. Pitchers and catchers reported a week ago and were nearing the first spring training games. Our Cubs coverage has been spotty at best so far, but with how good of a job we do with UK and UofL, can you really blame us? That’s out the window though, because the Pinkie is amping up its coverage for Kingdom Cub in a big way.

Here’s what were going to do. Over the next five weeks, on every weekday either Bobby E, Rolf, or I will posting a season outlook for a Cubs player. For those of you who never learned your times tables, we’ll be doing 25 season outlooks for the 25 players we anticipate making the Opening Day roster in Houston. We’ll be starting with the most important players that we know are a part of the Cubs plans, which will give us some time to see who’s playing well in Mesa. Also, you’ll notice that we’re going to be grouping players who will be battling for playing time at each position. Alright, you get the point. First up is the newly mustachioed wonder, Carlos Zambrano.

Say what you want about Big Z’s inconsistency, about Rich Harden’s phenomenal stuff, or about Ryan Dempster’s 2008 season, but Zambrano is our number 1. He’s a horse and our franchise pitcher, and I wouldn’t want anybody else out there on Opening Day.

Even if he does put together a full season that lives up to his Cy Young potential that I think we agree he possesses, it won’t be without a bump or two along the way, so not surprisingly, concerns are already popping up. His troublesome shoulder had caused him to pull out of the World Baseball Classic (I’m sure the Cubs aren’t disappointed), but the biggest issue right now is his right eye. Big Z needs corrective laser surgery to correct an astigmatism which is impeding his vision in that eye, but an infection is causing the surgery to be delayed. Zambrano is using eye drops to clear up the infection, and a decision about surgery will be made in about 2-3 weeks: “I may do it. I don’t know yet,” he said of the surgery. “There’s a small chance that I do it right now or do it during the season. Let’s see how the drops work.”

The last thing Carlos Zambrano needs is something else to think about on the mound, so this eye issue needs to get decisively resolved as soon as possible. Carlos turns 28 this season, and is coming off a season in which he failed to exceed 200 innings for the first time since becoming a full time starter. There were highs (the no hitter comes to mind), there were lows (take your pick, but I’ll go with the start against Cardinals on August 9th), and there were times when you just felt bad for him (when he was victimized by unspeakably poor defense in game 2 of the NLDS).

His ERA was 2.76 before that aforementioned start against St. Louis, and he was in contention for the Cy Young until that game. Then the shoulder flared up and Big Z was never the same. After that point, he was 2-2 with a 7.93 ERA, and that included his no hitter. He got some time off to rest his shoulder before the playoffs, and he came back pitching a lot more like he had the first four months of the season.

I am not concerned about his shoulder, simply because he has been so durable throughout his career (if his name were Wood or Prior, I would not say the same). Like I said, I hope that his eye heals up and that he gets the surgery out of the way, otherwise I don’t see him getting off to a good start. I do like the fact that he starts off against Houston, because of the positive vibes from the last time he faced them (the no hitter). He overcame his Opening Day jitters that he had suffered from his first three times taking the ball first for the Cubbies, pitching 6 2/3 stellar innings against Milwaukee.

The most positive thing I take from Big Z’s 2008 was his improved walk numbers. He walked only 3.43 BB/9, as opposed to 4.52 over his previous 2 seasons. His strikeout rate decreased significantly as well, but for Big Z that is a positive in my mind. He can rear back, fire, and get a big K when he needs it, but he’s better when he’s getting ground balls early in the count and keeping his pitch count down so he can stay in the game longer (and get more at bats).

Zambrano showed signs of growing as a pitcher last year, but everybody knows he still has some growing to do in terms of demeanor. I don’t ever expect Zambrano to stop barking at himself, at batters, at umps, at teammates, or at the hot dog guy in section 123, and I really don’t want him to. It’s that fire that makes Big Z who he is. What he needs to stop is the self-destructing when things go wrong for him.

The 7 runs he gave up against the Dodgers in October probably suggests that he did self-destruct, but I think that’s the farthest thing from the truth. I think he was the only Cub to hold things together in that series. He kept making his pitches when Mark DeRosa made an error that cost the Cubs a double play ball and when Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Ryan Theriot booted balls to complete the infield superfecta.

If there is one encouraging thing from that series for me, it’s the way Big Z conducted himself. I remember coming into work the day after that game when a coworker commented how poorly Zambrano had pitched. I became visibly and audibly angry at the comment as I refuted what he had said. I still get upset when I think about that game, because it really felt like Zambrano was fighting against his own team, against the negative energy in Wrigley, but losing.

I’m really hoping that Zambrano can bring that same attitude into 2009. It’s obviously debatable what kind of season Big Z is going to have on the mound, but I don’t think it’s debatable that Zambrano will be one the elite hitting pitchers of all time. His OPS of .892 was only bested by Aramis Ramirez, Micah Hoffpauir, Mike Fontenot, and Jim Edmonds among Cub batters.

It’s fun to watch a guy like Zambrano who cares about every facet of the game, and it’s quite an asset to have a pitcher who has to be treated like an everyday player by opposing pitchers. If you want to nitpick, you could point out that Zambrano failed to walk once all season, but, again, look to the playoffs for encouragement, when he drew his only walk in 2008. Zambrano career stats, including my projections for 2009:

CLICK HERE FOR ALL CUBBIE PLAYERS’ OUTLOOKS