Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros-Series Preview

I hope you have enjoyed our series of season outlooks for the Chicago Cubs. We started those things back in February; back then, the Opening Day could not have seemed farther away. A UK coaching change, a disappointing UofL Elite Eight loss, and a little over a month later, it’s finally time for baseball, it’s finally time for the Cubs.

The Cubbies open their season in the Lone Star state against the Houston Astros, a team the Cubs last saw in Milwaukee of all places in September of 2008. The Cubs were 8-9 against the Astros last season, and the Astros were the only NL Central team that the Cubs did not have a winning record against in 2008.

Despite their play against the team with the best record in the National League last year and their remarkable rally the last two months of 2008 to nearly overtake the Milwaukee Brewers for a Wild Card berth, they are being widely discounted as contenders in the division, mostly due to the fact that their rotation and lineup are full of guys that make just kind of shrug your shoulders. They’ve got a bunch of veterans and a bunch of journeyman surrounding their ace, Roy Oswalt, and their star hitters, Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, who make up one of the best 3-4 combinations in the league when healthy.

Astros Lineup

1. Michael Bourn CF
2. Kazuo Matsui 2B
3. Lance Berkman 1B
4. Carlos Lee LF
5. Miguel Tejada SS
6. Ivan Rodriguez C
7. Hunter Pence RF
8. Geoff Blum 3B

The biggest changes from the end of last year to this year for the Astros are that Carlos Lee is now healthy, which is not a good thing for Cub pitchers, and that the Astros have added Ivan Rodriguez to play catcher. Rodriguez is past his prime, but his signing is a major upgrade from a platoon of JR Towles and Humberto Quintero both behind the dish and at the plate.

The top of their lineup features two guys with serious speed in Bourn and Matsui. Bourn has a lot of trouble getting on base (only .288 OBP last year) but when the former Philly farmhand does, you can pretty much bet he’s going to try to take the next base. He had 41 steals in 51 attempts last year. Kazuo Matsui has enjoyed a nice renaissance since getting out of New York, and he has developed into a guy who gets his hits and gets on base. He handles the bat well, and is the kind of guy you want in the 2 hole.

It’s pretty important to keep those guys at bay, because there’s a pretty good chance that the 3-7 guys are going to knock them in. The middle of the Astros lineup is on par with basically any National League team. Berkman and Lee, especially are as good as they come, and it’s tough to feel confident with them at the plate.

The two guys you can be sure to see off the bench for them are Darin Erstad in the outfield and former Red Jeff Keppinger pretty much everywhere else. Neither of these guys is flashy, but they are both professional hitters.

Probable Pitchers

Game 1-7:05 eastern, TV-CSN/ESPN2

Chicago Cubs-Carlos Zambrano (2008: 14-6, 3.91 ERA)-Check out the Pinkie’s 2009 outlook for Big Z

Carlos Zambrano’s last start against the Astros will be remembered for a long time by Cub fans as the first no hitter by a Cub since Milt Pappas in 1972. It was Zambrano’s lone return to form during a very disappointing last two months of 2008. Z is making his 5th consecutive Opening Day start for the Cubs, and hopefully there are many more ahead. Zambrano will be looking to make a solid Opening Day start for the second straight year after three bad ones. If he wants to have a good day, he will need to limit Berkman and Lee, two guys who have very different numbers against Z. Berkman just can’t seem to figure him out. He’s only 9-63 (.143) for his career against him with 18 K’s. Z needs to keep that up, and also limit Lee, who is 17-46 (.370) against Z with 4 homers and 13 RBI’s.

Houston Astros-Roy Oswalt (17-10, 3.54)

Oswalt is about as consistent as they come. He’s entering his 9th season, and amazingly, his 3.54 ERA last year was the highest of his career. I don’t like the guy (he’s always struck me as a punk) but there’s no questioning his talent. Any win you can get against Oswalt is a great one. He stumbled out of the gate last year, but was pretty much unbeatable (sub-2.00 ERA in August/September) as the ‘Stros nearly won the Wild Card. Only Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, and Aaron Miles have more than 8 AB’s against Oswalt, and among those guys, only Lee has an average of over .250 against him (.306). He’s a tough matchup, but I think Z’s going to be bringing it.

Advantage: Even

Game 2-8:05 eastern, TV-WGN

Cubs-Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96) Dempster season outlook

I don’t think many people expect Dempster to notch an ERA in the 2’s again in 2009, but I do look for him to be very, very solid all year. Dempster battled Big Z for the Opening Day start, but Big Z is the heart of this team, so he lost out. Dempster has thrown more innings against the Astros than any other team, but is only 4-10 with a 4.50 ERA in 122 innings. Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee both are batting over .400 against him, so watch out for those guys.

Astros-Wandy Rodriguez (9-7, 3.54)

Honestly, I can’t believe Wandy Rodriguez is a number two in this league. Even though he had a solid year last year, he still just strikes me as a terrible pitcher. Wandy is 4-4 against the Cubs lifetime with a 4.68 ERA in 10 starts. He’s had some good games against the Cubs, and some really bad ones. However, I look for the Cubs to knock him around a bit. Watch for Derrek Lee and Ryan Theriot to continue their success against him, they are both batting .500 lifetime.

Advantage: Cubs-moderate

Game 3-8:05 eastern, TV-CSN

Cubs-Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09) Lilly season outlook

There were plenty of raised eyebrows when Lilly was signed to a big contract before the 2007 season, but I think most are sold on Theodore Roosevelt Lilly by now. He has been the Cubs most consistent pitcher the last two years. He is a really solid lefty with sneaky good stuff and a fierce competitive streak. Lilly is now 33, so he may be leaving his prime soon, but not this season, at least I hope not. Ted has had really good success against the majority of the Astros lineup, with only Jeff Keppinger batting better than .225 among guys with 12 or more AB’s.

Astros-Brian Moehler (11-8, 4.56)

This is another guy that I can’t believe is a number 3 in an MLB rotation. The man is 37 years old and he’s not any good. I say that, though, and he had a 3.68 ERA in four starts against the Cubs lineup. He’s usually not going to go more than 5 or 6 innings deep, so the Cubs better be ready for the Astros bullpen. Even though Moehler has been around for a while, the Cubs really haven’t faced him that much. Current Cubs have a lifetime .241 average against him in 87 AB’s and nobody has numbers to write home about. He’s just the kind of garbage pitcher you think you’re going to tee off on, then 6 innings later you’re down 4-2. I’ve seen it too many times in my years as a Cubs fan.

Advantage: Cubs-strong