Consequently, I researched a little bit into how minutes were distributed for John Calipari’s last 4 teams as the head coach of the Tigers. What I found is that Calipari has been very consistent in the depth of his rotation and his starting lineup. I consider a player “in the rotation when he averages over 10 minutes per game and plays in a majority of the team’s games:

2008-2009:
-9 man rotation
-5 players started at least 27 of team’s 37 games
-Same 5 players averaged at least 25 mpg
-1 player averaged more than 30.2 minutes

2007-2008:
-9 man rotation
-5 players started at least 33 of team’s 40 games
-Same 5 players averaged at least 25 mpg
-No player played more than 29.5 mpg

2006-2007:
-8 man rotation
-5 players started at least 35 of team’s 37 games
-7 players played at least 20 mpg
-No player played more than 28 mpg

2005-2006
-9 man rotation
-6 players started at least 21 of team’s 37 games
-Each of those 6 played at least 21.1 mpg
-No player played more than 27.3 mpg

As you can see, Calipari has used a 9 man rotation in 3 of the past 4 seasons and has found a pretty consistent starting lineup by the end of each year. Calipari’s starters generally get the bulk of the minutes and the 3 or 4 players off the bench play around 15 minutes a game. Also, in 2008-2009 Calipari had 2 players play 30 minutes a game (Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier), and that was the only time he had a player play that many minutes in the last 4 seasons.

I believe we can expect basically the same the same during the upcoming season. Let’s take a look at the 9 men who I believe will fit into this rotation. Players in bold are expected starters.

John Wall – G
Eric Bledsoe – G
Darius Miller – G/F
Patrick Patterson – F
DeMarcus Cousins – F/C
Daniel Orton – F/C
Ramon Harris – F
Darnell Dodson – G/F
DeAndre Liggins – G/F

The 3 players that I do not believe will factor into the rotation are Perry Stevenson, Josh Harrellson, and Jon Hood. I think each will get chances early in the year as Calipari learns his team, but I see the rotation shaking out like this.

Some will also argue against Ramon Harris factoring in the rotation, but Calipari has reportedly liked his defense. If you look at Calipari’s last 4 Memphis teams, it has been Antonio Anderson who has led the team in minutes the past 4 years. His defense got him minutes even though he average double figures just once. For this reason, I think you will see Ramon Harris on the court this year.

I also think DeAndre Liggins will be a part of the rotation because of his ability to play point guard in case Bledsoe and Wall are on the bench and the small forward position due to his size. I see him playing 15 minutes or so per game.

I also think that it is likely that 6 players on this years roster will play at least 20 minutes a game (5 starters plus Daniel Orton). You will notice that I include only 3 natural post players in the rotation. Patrick Patterson figures to play 30 minutes a game at either the 4 or 5 (maybe even the 3 from time to time), which leaves 50 minutes at those two positions. I think Orton and Cousins will get the vast majority of those minutes.

Also, people who have not been hearing reports about the pickup games in Lexington may be surprised to see Eric Bledsoe along John Wall in my forecasted backcourt. Bledsoe has been a revelation in these games, giving John Wall everything he wants and more. I think Bledsoe and Wall will be able to play very effectively together, although you have to imagine that a lineup with Wall and Bledsoe will see plenty of zone defense. That will put pressure on Darius Miller or whoever is playing the 3 to hit the outside shot. Even so, can you imagine a bigger upgrade in ballhandling in the backcourt from last season with these 2 playing together? Bring on the ball pressure!

Let’s take a look at how I see the minutes being divvied up at each position when UK plays a close game. Expect the 3 players not listed in the rotation to steal a minute or 2 here or there, but for simplicity’s sake I have excluded them.

PG – Wall (25), Bledsoe (10), Liggins (5)
SG – Bledsoe (13), Miller (10), Wall (5) Dodson (5), Liggins (7)
SF – Miller (15), Dodson (10), Liggins (7), Harris (8)
PF – Patterson (25), Cousins (5), Orton (5), Harris/Miller (5)
C – Cousins (17), Orton (17), Patterson (6)

Comment below if you disagree with any of this!

Also, here’s an ESPN video of Andy Katz discussing the new developments:

Memphis’ argument is that they only used an ineligible player, Derrick Rose, because the NCAA Clearinghouse said he was eligible. They say that they were unable to find proof of any misconduct in Rose’s SAT test taking. They do not go so far as to deny it, but they say they have no knowledge of it taking place and had no reason to hold any suspicions. Here’s their conclusion in their investigation:

The University does not have sufficient information to conclude that (name redacted) engaged in unethical conduct in regard to a (redacted) taking of the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT). Specifically, the University has no knowledge that (redacted) did not complete the SAT entrance examination. Accordingly, the University does not know whether the information included in the allegation is substantially correct and is unable to conclude whether a violation of the cited NCAA regulations has occurred.

As Katz says, Memphis is not concerned about any future penalties in terms of scholarships or probation, but they will have to plead their case on Saturday in Indianapolis in order to hold on to their spot in the NCAA record books with their historic 2007-2008 season. John Calipari, via conference call in China, will be a part of the proceedings.

The other charge made by the NCAA against the Memphis basketball program is the illegal travel benefit to Derrick Rose’s brother. Memphis admitted to the charge in their report, but chalked up the $1,713.85 extra benefit to a clerical error. They said that Rose’s brother traveled with the team on multiple occasions and paid back the athletic department for most of the trips, but as an oversight, did not pay back Memphis for two separate trips.

While this charge is getting much less notoriety and seems to be much more minor Dana O’Neil writes that it may be the issue that ends up costing Memphis:

In its letter of response to the NCAA, the university admitted that a portion of travel expenses incurred by a player’s family member — Derrick Rose’s brother, Reggie, according to several sources — was not billed to him. Rose eventually reimbursed the university.

Although Memphis contends it was not intentional, that Rose merely forgot to pay for two trips and it was an ‘administrative error,’ the fact remains that the non-payment is an extra benefit. The university said that Rose, who traveled and reimbursed Memphis for five other trips, did not pay for $1,713.85 worth of travel.

“It will be difficult to prove that Memphis knew about or was involved in the SAT,” the source said. “But they acknowledged he wasn’t charged in regards to the other allegation. They said it ‘slipped through the cracks.’”

The source also said that even if Memphis did not know about Rose’s SAT score until after the season — Rose received letters from Educational Testing Services at his Chicago home but was on campus at Memphis, according to the university — the invalidated test score basically rendered him ineligible for the NCAA tournament.

“There’s a very good chance that the [2008] Final Four will be vacated,” the source said.

It’s kind of sad that a couple free plane rides could invalidate all the work done to get Memphis to the National Title game in 2008.

Also, in a related story, Festivus was apparently moved to June 2, because it seemed like today was the day for “airing of grievances” regarding Memphis and the SAT.

Earlier, we heard about the Illinois AD who claimed to have been aware of Derrick Rose’s SAT issues “all along”, now, Gary Parrish has reported that Georgia backed out of former Memphis star Robert Dozier’s recruitment because of “concerns that he might’ve similarly. had someone take his SAT”.

I’m not sure what to think about all of this, but it’s amazing how this kind of information comes out in waves.