Early favorites for the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby

As promised, it’s time to breakdown the early favorites to win the Roses. I’ll be the first to admit I know little-to-nothing about the intricacies of the sport of horse racing; however, I have cashed a winning Derby ticket the past three years (courtesy of Big Brown, Street Sense and Barbaro).

Now that I’ve jinxed my 2009 pick, let it be known the only other horses I have correctly selected to win were Fusaichi Pegasus (2000), Strike the Gold (1991) and Sunday Silence (1989). I recall picking a horse in the 1988 Derby, so I’m gonna say that was my first Derby prediction, which gives me a record of 6-15 in 21 years of action.

This year is shaping up to be the year of the ‘underhorse’ as the three horses everyone is talking about all have issues both on, and off the track.

California’s strongest candidate, Pioneerof the Nile, has never run on dirt, and apparently Nicholas Sparks has whispered to him and relayed the fact that he does not like the surface.

Florida’s finest, and my initial pick based on name alone, Quality Road, has a quarter crack in his right hind hoof, and Triple Crown races, or any races for that matter, are no place to have foot problems.

New York’s best, I Want Revenge, according to pundits, has not beaten anyone of note, and came east from Cali because he was only the fourth-or-fifth-best horse out West.

Anyhow, on to my Top 10 for this years race:

10. Hold Me Back – Trained by hall-of-famer Bill Mott, that’s gotta be worth something, no?

9. Chocolate Candy – Is a late runner, and if the track stays fast, watch out DOWN THE STRETCH!!!!

8.  Dunkirk – Florida Derby runner-up. Has shown flashes of brilliance in his short three-race career.

7. Papa Clem – Won the Arkansas Derby and finished a half-length behind Pioneerof the Nile and a length ahead of I Want Revenge in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes back in February. Arkansas derby winners have a good KY Derby history….

6. Musket Man – Winner of the Illinois Derby, his only loss in six starts was to General Quarters, the victor in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland this past Saturday.

5.  Friesan Fire – Has won all three of his races this year and has looked good since winning the Louisiana Derby on March 14.

4.  Desert Party – John Asher has this guy to win…. and he knows a little bit more about things than I do.

3. I Want Revenge – Only three victories in eight starts. Two of those in the Gotham and the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He came east after winning just once in six races in California. His trainer, Jeff Mullins, has stated the colt did not like the synthetic surface and needed dirt, and though he seems to be correct (I Want Revenge is 2-for-2 on dirt, overcoming adversity to win the Wood with style) he hasn’t really beaten anyone in doing so.

2. Pioneerof the Nile – Since taking over trainer duties in November, three-time Derby champ, silver-haired Bob Baffert has led this colt to a 4-0 record, most recently in the Santa Anita Derby. Last year, Colonel John was Cali’s best and stumbled out of the gates on the dirt, finishing sixth. The only thing that bugs me about this horse is there is no space betwix ‘Pioneer’ and ‘of’…..my OCD doesn’t do well with that.

1. Quality Road – Won the Florida Derby by a 1 3/4 lenghts (watch here) and looked impressive in doing so. Not much experience, winning three of the four races he has been entered into.

Quality Road’s trainer, Jimmy Jerkens (again, whatta name!), noticed a quarter crack in his horse’s right hind hoof in the winner’s circle at Gulfstream Park. He has since had the hoof patched, and seems to be healing well.

So as of today, my pick is Quality Road. I’ll have to wait and see post positions and jockeys before finalizing my order.  I’ll be back next Friday with an updated rundown of my Top 10, and then on Friday May 1st, Oaks Day, I’ll be posting my final Derby picks for 2009.