135th Kentucky Derby Favorites

Last week I brought you my initial Top 10 for the 135th Run for the Roses next Saturday. With the big race only a week and a day away, it is time to get serious and really start breaking down who has a chance to win this thing.

I’ve been following James Scully’s Derby Report to keep up with how the horses are doing in their workouts.

For my inital Top 10 list, check here. My top three remains the same this week, with the big mover being Hold Me Back, jumping from tenth last week all the way up to sixth.

Bobby E’s Top 10 Derby Favorites as of 4/23/09

10. Chocolate Candy – There is something wrong with the fact that this horse is owned by the Sid & Jenny Craig Trust – yes, THAT Jenny Craig. You implore millions of people to eat healthy and lose weight and then go and name your horse Chocolate Candy? That’s just wrong.

9. Musket Man – Winner of both the Illinois and Tampa Bay Derbys, there isn’t much flash here. Musket always runs hard though and has yet to put in a sub-par effort.

Venezuelan jockey Eibar Coa is coming off his best Derby finish last year aboard fourth-place finisher Tale of Ekati.

8.  Dunkirk – Trained by Todd Pletcher, who despite saddling a record five horses in the 2007 Derby, Pletcher has never won a Kentucky Derby. He did have runner-ups in 2006 with Bluegrass Cat and 2001′s Invisible Ink.

Will be ridden by Edgar Prado, the last jockey to ride the horse that captured the world’s heart, Barbaro. Check out Prado’s book entitled: My Guy Barbaro.

7. Papa Clem – Papa won the Arkansas Derby, and as previously mentioned Arkansas Derby winners have a good track record at Churchill on the first Saturday in May.

This will be the fifth Run for the Roses for jockey Rafael Bejarano, who has finished unplaced in his previous four efforts.

6. Hold Me Back – Trained by HOFer Bill Mott (the all-time winningest trainer at Churchill) and ridden by three-time Derby winner Kent Desormeaux. Surrounded by too much talent not to move up.

5.  Friesan Fire – His last remaining horse this year, Larry Jones, a native of Hopkinsville, Kentucky, has finished second in the Kentucky Derby for the past two years, with Hard Spun in 2007 and the ill-fated Eight Belles in 2008. Obviously he knows how to train a horse to get to the front, will the third time be the charm for this KY boy?

Will also be mounted by jockey Gabriel Saez, the same jockey that rode Eight Belles last year. Fire could be the best story in the race, and the sentimental favorite.

4.  Desert Party – John Asher has still got this horse crossing the finish line in first. And John Asher still knows more than I do.

3. I Want Revenge - Has looked good in workouts at Churchill thus far. He will be the fastest horse in the field based on Speed ratings. And he was super impressive in his two prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. If the weather remains nice, watch out for Revenge!

My main concern here is jockey Joe Talamo, just 19 years old and riding in his first Kentucky Derby, less than two years removed from his apprentice status…

2. Pioneerof the Nile – As mentioned last week, Bob Baffert has led this colt to a 4-0 record, and you should never doubt the silver-haired one. Pioneer ran well at Churchill on Tuesday and has shown nothing unusual that would drop him down this list.   

I don’t know much about what this number means, but apparently it is good: Pioneerof the Nile breezed through five furlongs in a sharp 1:00 4/5 under exercise rider Joe Steiner.

And again, please, get a space betwix ‘Pioneer’ and ‘of’…..URGH!

1. Quality Road – Jimmy Jerkins will have this horse ready to run. Despite the foot problems, hoof specialist Ian McKinlay insists that he’s completely healed from the setback.

This will be John Velazquez’s 11th Kentucky Derby, with his best finish being a second aboard Invisible Ink in 2001.

So there you have it. There were some shake ups in my order, but Quality Road is still my pick to take the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby.

FOR MY FINAL PREDICTIONS, HEAD ON OVER TO http://www.straitpinkie.com/sports/135th-kentucky-derby-final-predictions/