straitpinkie.com
SEC Tournament: Thursday Wrap-up, Friday Outlook | straitpinkie.com

SEC Tournament: Thursday Wrap-up, Friday Outlook

By: Guy | March 12th, 2009 | Category: Cats

It’s a rare day in March when I pick four games and get them all right. I could used to this! Dere’s a quick recap of the SEC Tournament action on Thursday:

UK 71 OLE MISS 58-Here’s Wink’s wrap-up. I was off on the deficit when I said UK 68-63, but at least I got the outcome right.

MISSISSIPPI STATE 79 GEORGIA 60-You’re welcome for telling you not to bother watching this game. The Bulldogs jumped out to a 14 point halftime lead any thoughts of a repeat of last year’s run for Georgia was over pretty quickly. I was close on the deficit in my prediction of a 65-49 State win, but I was slightly surprised to see this many points scored. Georgia was shooting around 50% most of the game, but finally went cold with about 12 minutes left, finishing at 41.9% shooting.

Sophomore forward Kodi Augustus had a career high 19 points, including 3-4 shooting from deep, in only 17 minutes. He had not played much all season until the last three games, but he’s averaged almost 20 minutes a game in the last three and 13.7 points. There won’t be much tape out on him, so South Carolina will be scrambling to try to plan for him. Jarvis Varnado also put up a double-double, scoring 14 points and grabbing 12 boards.

Terrance Woodbury led Georgia with 14 points in the last game of his career.

ALABAMA 82 VANDERBILT 75

Thanks to Vanderbilt doing a great job extending the last 1:04 second, my prediction of 80-78 ended up being pretty close to right on even though Alabama was very much in control most of the way. Alonzo Gee led the way for the Tide with 25 point on 9-12 shooting and numerous dunks. ‘Bama’s athleticism proved to be too much for Vandy, particularly AJ Ogilvy, who had a disappointing 8 points on 2-7 shooting.

Admittedly, I overhyped this game a bit. Alabama outclassed Vandy, and had an answer every time they made a run. Even so, I think this game was worth watching for the compelling coaching battle between guys who look like characters from The Office. First, Kevin Stallings as Kevin Malone:

 

Second, Phillip Pearson as Andy “Nard Dog” Bernard:

FLORIDA 73 ARKANSAS 58

No surprise in this game. Arkansas hung around for a while, but in the end, Florida was able to distance themselves.  It’s the end of a disappointing SEC year for the Hogs. Walter Hodge led four Gators in double figures with 16 points despite going 0-6 from three.

Now, here’s what you need to be watching in the games tomorrow:

W1 LSU VS. E4 KENTUCKY, 1 PM EDT, RAYCOM

Here’s my full breakdown of the game

PREDICTION: LSU 75 KENTUCKY 70

E2 SOUTH CAROLINA VS. W3 MISSISSIPPI STATE, 3:30 PM EDT, RAYCOM

Both of these times have a lot of perimeter quickness. Devan Downey and Zam Fredrick lead the Gamecocks while the Bulldogs will counter with Barry Stewart and Ravern Johnson among others. Mississippi State has played a four guard lineup most of the season, but the recent emergence of forward Kodi Augustus gives them a bit more size. State also has the best big man in the game in Jarvis Varnado, particularly on defense.

I think that these two teams are pretty evenly matched (as evidenced by a 75-70 State win in Starkville), but at this time of the year, I give the advantage to the team with the best player on the floor. In this case, that player is Devan Downey and that team is South Carolina. Both of these teams are harboring hopes of playing in the NCAA’s (but Carolina’s chances are more realistic), so it will be a hotly contested afternoon game, and I would suggest checking it out if you have a chance.

PREDICTION: SOUTH CAROLINA 81 MISSISSIPPI STATE 78

E1 TENNESSEE VS. W4 ALABAMA, 7:30 PM EDT, RAYCOM

Bruce Pearl will be looking for his first ever SEC Tournament win in a rematch of last Sunday’s buzzer-beating Alabama win. It’s not too often that you play a team in two consecutive games, but that is just what Tennessee will be doing.

Tennessee is pretty much safe for the NCAA Tournament, but the SEC Tournament will have a significant impact on their seeding. Alabama, on the other hand, has Tournament aspirations only based on potentially winning the SEC Tournament, even though they likely have played their way into an NIT berth with recent strong play.

Alabama won the first matchup 70-67 in spite of the fact that their best player, senior leader Alonzo Gee, threw up a 4-17 game from the field and failed to reach double figures for the only time since February 8. It was only the fifth time all year he has been in single digits, and it was only the second time Alabama has won when he has scored fewer than 10. This should tell you that they have become a much more solid team. This also should worry the Vols. Alonzo Gee probably will not be so quiet tomorrow.

The way the game on Sunday is about the way to expect it will go tomorrow. Neither team is a great shooting team: ‘Bama shot 43.6% and 6-15 from three, Tennessee shot 38.5% and 7-25 from three. I expect both teams to be slightly better shooting, but these numbers are pretty indicative of what each team is really capable of.

I also look for Alabama to take better care of the basketball (20 turnovers on Sunday) and to cut into the -6 rebounding margin they faced in the first game.

Crunching the numbers and thinking about the personnel of each team, I think this is going to be a tight game throughout. Even though I hesitate slightly to pick Alabama over Tennessee in a second consecutive game, I just really think Alabama is poised to make a run this year.

PREDICTION: ALABAMA 75 TENNESSEE 73

W2 AUBURN VS. E3 FLORIDA, 9:45 PM EDT, RAYCOM

So Florida was able to hold its end of the bargain and set up a showdown for a likely NCAA berth. Entering the SEC Tournament, I immediately looked ahead to this game and tried to project what I thought would happen. At first, I thought the momentum that Auburn had built would transfer, and Florida would not be able to overcome it.

However, now that the game is nearly upon us, I find my point of view changing. Auburn has impressed me with their toughness in winning 8 of 9 to close the season, however, they remain the same undersized, not very deep, and not very good shooting team they always have been. Florida is not without its flaws, but they are much deeper and more balanced, and are led by Nick Calathes.

Maybe I’m exactly the kind of doubter that has inspired Auburn during their current run, but I think it ends here.

PREDICTION: FLORIDA 78 AUBURN 71

3 Responses to “SEC Tournament: Thursday Wrap-up, Friday Outlook”

  1. [...] Straitpinkie has a tournament wrap-up and Friday preview. [...]

  2. [...] Straitpinkie has a tournament wrap-up and Friday preview. [...]

  3. [...] Also, click here for a recap of all of yesterday’s SEC Tournament action. [...]

Leave a Reply