It will be three weeks tomorrow since John Calipari was officially introduced as the head coach of the University of Kentucky. Is it just me, or does that seem like a really long time ago? That’s probably due to a combination of me being really busy and John Calipari being even busier.

Seriously, reflect on all the activity of the last three weeks.

UK has held three weeks worth of practice with current Wildcats to determine who has a future with the program. Only Michael Porter is gone for sure, while the statuses of Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson are uncertain due to the NBA and the statuses of Josh Harrellson and AJ Stewart are uncertain for other reasons. Handicapping it, I would say that Jodie will be back. Regarding Patrick Patterson, the sentiment that Patterson has played his last game in UK blue is growing. I think he’ll end up staying in the draft. Harrellson and Stewart will both end up gone in my opinion.

Calipari is also staging a cleanup effort in terms of UK commitments. GJ Vilarino, Konner Tucker, Dakotah Euton, Michael Avery, and Dominique Ferguson are all gone, and all but Ferguson are gone for good. Calipari is still pursuing Dominique.

The only commitments left are Daniel Orton (whose father just affirmed a 100% UK commitment), Jon Hood (also 100%), and Vinny Zollo. Zollo’s status is still up in the air because, frankly, talking to him is not a priority for John Calipari at the moment.

The reason why Coach Cal hasn’t had time for Zollo is because his activity on the recruiting trail has been unreal. You can knock Billy Gillispie all you want, but I will not question his effort in the area of recruiting. However, John Calipari is making that look like child’s play.

Calipari has sold two UK commitments on staying in the fold (Orton and Hood), gotten a new LOI out of 5 star F/C DeMarcus Cousins, and is in the running for two more top 2009 kids: John Wall and Xavier Henry. That’s not even counting the 2010 or 2011 kids that Coach Cal has had conversations with.

There will be plenty of time to talk about those sophomores and juniors, but the collective eyes of Big Blue Nation are on the recruitment of Wall and Henry. ‘Cat fans spend a lot of time trying to figure out exactly what’s going on, which is tough, becuase no one really knows. Both situations are complicated, but I’m going to take a shot at breaking it down for you.

John Wall

Wall’s viable options (as I see it) are UK, Duke, NC State, UNC, and the NBA. Most of what I have heard lately leads me to believe that UNC is still not involved, and it looks like it may stay that way. It’s my belief that Roy Williams does not like losing highly public recruiting battles, and if he overcomes his issues with Wall’s AAU coach, Brian Clifton, and offers Wall, I believe that Williams still thinks he will lose out.

I also think that NC State is a long shot. Their main selling point is location, and I don’t think that matters as much as NBA preparation and competing for a national title on the biggest stage possible.

That leaves UK, Duke, and the NBA.

When it comes down to it, I don’t think attempting to enter the NBA Draft is worth it for John Wall. Maybe you can make an argument that he can sneak in the Draft, but it would be against the spirit of the “one and done” rule, and you can be sure that David Stern and the NBA are going to fight it tooth and nail. When you fight David Stern, you stand a pretty good chance of losing the fight. If Wall loses his fight to enter the Draft, where does that leave him? I’m not going to college would be an option, so would he head to Europe where he would disappear from the spotlight? Ask Brandon Jennings how things have worked out for him. Wall wants to keep his hype level high, and the best place to do that is playing one year of college ball on a team that will be on TV ALL THE TIME and competing at a high level.

Presumably, UK and Duke both fit the bill. However, the recent buzz is that Duke junior Gerald Henderson is going to enter the draft, and if that happens, I’m not sure I’m convinced Duke would compete for a national title, even with Wall. Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly are nice (although detestable) players, but I don’t think they’re any different than the Duke players who have gotten smacked around in March.

A UK team with Wall at the point has an almost unlimited ceiling. UK’s frontcourt (with or without Patterson) will be formidable, and the possibility of a Meeks and Wall backcourt is pretty exciting, and I have to think John Wall recognizes that. Add that to the Derrick Rose/Tyreke Evans selling point that Calipari has, and I don’t think Wall is going to be able to say ‘no’ to UK.

Probabilities: UK 65%, Duke 25%, other 10%)

Xavier Henry

Xavier’s options are Kansas and Kentucky, with Memphis lurking. His situation is as complicated as Wall’s, if not moreso, but for different reasons.

Xavier wants to play with his brother, CJ, next year. CJ was at Memphis with Calipari, and will need a waiver from the NCAA in order to avoid a redshirt and play next year. I think the NCAA is more likely to grant such a waiver to CJ if he’s at UK because CJ signed with Kansas out of high school before signing a contract with the New York Yankees. CJ also has a relationship with Calipari, and likely could play more at UK, because UK is thinner in the backcourt. Overall, I think CJ benefits UK’s chances.

Also, Xavier’s divorced parents both attended KU, and presumably would like their sons to follow in their footsteps. Xavier’s mother seems more deadset on this notion, while his father, Carl, recognizes the selling points that Calipari boasts. There was a ton of hemming and hawing from the Henry camp about the planned visit for this weekend. It seems to me that the visit will not happen (partially due to Xavier’s senior prom on Friday), but that does not preclude Xavier and CJ from choosing UK.

Whether the visit happens or not, I expect a decision by the end of this weekend from the Henry’s because they are ready to be done with all of this. In the end, I don’t think that Xavier will say ‘no’ to Kansas a second time.

The only way Memphis hangs on to the Henry’s is if CJ is denied his waiver request and Xavier decides that playing with his brother is THE most important factor in his decision.

Probabilities: Kansas 65% Kentucky 30% Memphis 5%