Does Anyone Want to Be a #1 Seed?

This is the best time of the year for college basketball fans. We are only a few short days away from Selection Sunday and conference tournament games are saturating televisions across the country. Bubble teams are usually the focal point of debate betwixt basketball analysts, but after watching today’s slate of conference tournament games, specifically involving teams fighting for 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, one question continually came to mind: Does anyone actually want to be a 1 seed?

Going into today’s action, the general consensus is that North Carolina and Pittsburgh have #1 seeds locked up and most people, including myself, agree. However, I think it is fair to say the final two #1 seeds are yet to be determined. Assuming there are two available #1 seeds left, let’s take a look at those remaining teams with a shot at grabbing the final and look at what they need to do to get the top line on Selection Sunday:

Connecticut Huskies - UConn has a 27-3 record, a #4 national ranking, and sit 5th in the RPI. They cannot beat Pitt, but other than the Panthers, the Huskies only slip up came against Georgetown in December. Connecticut also handily dispatched Big East champions Louisville in the Hall of Freedom. However, the Huskies did not win their regular season conference title, nor did they win their conference tournament.

The major issue for me regarding Connecticut being a #1 seed is the loss of Jerome Dyson. The Selection Committee is known to factor injuries into determining a team’s seed. In this case, they will be judging the Huskies on who they are without Jerome Dyson. They are clearly still a very good team, but whether they are #1 seed is less clear.

Bottom Line - Connecticut losing the epic game against Syracuse hurt their chances for a #1 seed. If Connecticut reached the conference finals, that would have locked up a #1, but now they have come back to the field.

Louisville Cardinals – The Cardinals have a 26-5 record, a #5 national ranking, and sit 9th in the RPI. The Cardinals beat Pitt along the way to winning the Big East conference and are clearly playing some of their best basketball here in March. And we know the Selection Committee places value on how a team plays to finish the season.

The Cardinals were also handled by UConn at home and lost to Notre Dame by 33 points. They also lost to Western Kentucky and Minnesota on neutral floors and at home to UNLV during non-conference play. If taken individually, those five losses can be explained away or dismissed. However, when added together, it doesn’t make for the prototypical profile of a #1 seed.

Bottom Line – Louisville won the Big East conference title outright and currently sit in the semi-finals of the conference tournament. If Louisville wins the Big East conference tournament in addition to the regular season title, they are a solid #1 seed. However, I believe if Louisville reaches the finals of the Big East tournament coupled with Kansas and Oklahoma losing today, they will secure a #1 seed. Bottom line for the Cardinals, reach the finals and feel good about your chances for the top line.

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Michigan State- The Spartans have a 25-5 record, a #6 national ranking, and sit 6th in the RPI. They also won the Big Ten conference title outright and have 15 wins, deemed quality wins by RealTimeRPI.com, more than any other team in the country. Michigan State also lost to Maryland on a neutral floor, got demolished by North Carolina 98-63 on a “neutral floor” in Detroit, and were defeated by Northwestern at home.

Bottom Line – The Spartans have a very good case for a #1 seed, but need to solidify their case by reaching at least the Big Ten tournament finals. My argument for Michigan State is essentially the same as Louisville, if they win their regular season conference title, then follow up with the conference tournament title, they cannot be denied a #1 seed.

I know he doesn't play anymore, but he still annoys me

Memphis- The Tigers have a 29-3 record, a #4 national ranking, and sit 7th in the RPI. I admittedly am skeptical of their case for being a #1 seed and am trying my best to be impartial. They beat Gonzaga at Gonzaga and defeated Tennessee in Knoxville. Outside of those games, their best win is at UAB during conference play.

Bottom Line – I’m in no way saying Memphis is not a good team, they definitely are, but the Tigers have ascended in the national rankings simply by not losing in conference play while other teams in better conferences have taken losses. Memphis plays in a conference that has allowed one team to win nearly 60 games in a row without a defeat. Quite simply, their conference is dreadful and the only way they can, or at least should, get a #1 seed is by default.

Oklahoma - The Sooners have a 27-5 record, a #7 national ranking, and sit 4th in the RPI. They have wins over Utah and Purdue during non-conference play. Jeff Capel’s club looked like a lock for a #1 seed until Blake Griffin’s injury during the last part of Big XII conference play. They dropped two games without him in the lineup and the injury should be taken into account when evaluating their resume. However, the Sooners did not win their conference regular season title and lost to Oklahoma State in their opening contest in the Big XII tournament.

Bottom Line - Despite Griffin’s injury, I don’t see how the Selection Committee can reward a team with a #1 seed when they did not win their conference regular season and dropped their first game in their conference tournament.

Duke- The Dukies have a 25-6 record, a #8 national ranking, and sit 2nd in the RPI. The Blue Devils have a great RPI, beat Purdue in West Lafayette, defeated Michigan on a neutral floor, and beat Xavier. They also beat Florida St. twice and Wake Forest during ACC play. However, the Dukies did not finish strong losing five games in conference play, including three losses in the final month.

Bottom Line- The Dukies will have a compelling case if they reach the ACC tournament finals and will have a fairly strong case if they win the tournament. It pains me to say this, but if Duke wins the ACC tournament they will be, and possibly should be, in serious consideration for the top line.

Hate him

Kansas- The Jayhawks have a 25-7 record, a #11 national ranking, and sit 8th in the RPI. Kansas won the Big XII regular season title, and posted non-conference wins over Tennessee and Pac-10 champion Washington. They also defeated Oklahoma in Norman and completely worked Missouri on March 1. As the season winded down, the Jayhawks were making a push toward stealing a #1 seed, but they just got bounced in their opening contest of the Big XII tournament losing to Baylor.

Bottom Line- Despite a late run, it looks like the Jayhawks won’t have enough to reach the top line. A strong run through the Big XII tournament would’ve put them squarely in the discussion, but that does not appear likely.

Rolf’s Prophecy on 3/13/09 1:24 am - I think Louisville and Michigan State will complete the sweep and win both their conference regular season and tournament titles. Therefore, your final two #1 seeds will be the Michigan State Spartans and Louisville Cardinals.