UofL Basketball: The Final Eight Games

It seems like this college basketball season has flown by, but we are only five weeks away from Selection Sunday and the Louisville Cardinals are still in a precarious position in terms of their NCAA Tournament position. As of right now, most projections have the Cards in the tournament, but there is still a lot of basketball to be played and many teams can still play their way into the Big Dance, including Louisville.

With only eight games left to play, here is where the Cards sit, numbers wise, as of Sunday, February 7:

Overall Record – 15-8
Conference Record - 6-4 
RPI – 42
Conference RPI – 2nd
Strength of Schedule – 5th
RPI Top 50 wins  – 1 (South Florida)

Looking at those numbers, it’s a good news/bad news situation. The good news is the Cards have played a very tough schedule and have a winning record in the second best conference. Louisville’s schedule will also get much better. Outside of DePaul, all of the Cards’ remaining opponents are RPI top 90 teams, including 2nd rated Syracuse twice.

I realize simply having a difficult strength of schedule can only get you so far, but it’s a good thing for Louisville because they need quality wins. And obviously, the only way to get quality wins is to play quality teams. Louisville will get multiple chances down the stretch to make their NCAA Tournament resume.

The bad news for Louisville is clear as day, they haven’t beaten anyone. The Cards’ best win is against South Florida, who is 48th in the RPI. While Louisville does have a total of four RPI top 100 wins, all those wins are good for is maybe to be a tiebreaker when comparing resumes against another potential tournament team. If Louisville does not secure that elusive signature win down the stretch, those wins are meaningless.

And let us not forget the Cards’ home losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina. Louisville will get a bit of a break with the Charlotte game due them having played that game without Jerry Smith, Preston Knowles, and Peyton Siva; the Selection Committee has factored injuries into their process many times, but only when teams have a compelling case for being in the Tournament. So again, if Louisville does not get a top shelf win, it won’t matter.

The question is who will Louisville get that signature win against? Here’s their remaining schedule:

at St. John’s
at #3/4 Syracuse
vs. Notre Dame
at DePaul
vs. #7/8 Georgetown
at Connecticut
at Marquette
vs. #3/4 Syracuse

I personally feel Louisville will secure two quality wins, at worst, to finish the season. I base that on the fact Louisville has played a very tough schedule and played with everyone. Whether it be Villanova, Kentucky, Pitt, or West Virginia, Louisville has shown the ability to play with, or outplay, some of the top teams in the country.

I am not going to get into the whole coulda, shoulda, woulda game, but I feel Louisville has done enough this season to prove they are more than capable of beating teams like Syracuse or Georgetown. They just have to do it.

I think by the time we reach the Big East conference tournament, Louisville will be safely in the Big Dance. I think Louisville will go 6-2 down the stretch. I believe they will beat Georgetown, then defeat Syracuse in the final home game for the Cards at historic Freedom Hall.

So rest easy Cardinal fans, our squad will indeed be dancing come March.