The Pinkie Previews: Rutgers (11-11 2-8) @ Louisville (14-8 5-4)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Louisville Cardinals
Freedom Hall Louisville, KY
Saturday February 6, 2010
Time: 4:04 pm EST
Radio: WKRD 790 AM and 101.7 FM
T.V.: WHAS 11 (Insight Channel 4)

The University of Louisville men’s basketball team will return to action Saturday afternoon in Freedom Hall to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.  The Cards are coming off a big win on Big Monday when they defeated the UCONN Huskies 82-69.  Louisville is fighting for its tournament lives every time they step on the court and a win against UCONN was big.  It’s another must win situation this Saturday for the Cards when they take on one of the worst teams in the Big East.  A loss to Rutgers would be a damaging mark on the ol’  tourney resume. 

The Scarlet Knights have awoken from the dead over the past week and are playing their best ball of the season.  Rutgers started off the conference season going 0-8 and were in the basement of the Big East.  This past week however, Rutgers has hit a hot streak.  Well, it’s a hot streak when talking about Rutgers basketball.  The Scarlet Knights have won two straight, defeating Notre Dame 74-73 last weekend and St. John’s 84-72 Tuesday night in Madison Square Garden.  The Scarlet Knights are looking to knock off Louisville for their third straight conference win which would be the first time they accomplish this feat since 2003-2004. 

Louisville and Rutgers have met eight times in program history with the Cards dominating the series 7-1.  Louisville is 3-0 on its home court and 2-1 on the road.  The Cards are also 2-0 against the Knights at a neutral site.  In their last meeting, Louisville dominated with a 78-59 victory at Rutgers on January 21, 2009. 

Meet the Scarlet Knights 

Let’s face it, at 11-11 overall and 2-8 in the Big East, Rutgers isn’t that good of a team.  Yes, they have played better lately, but there is nothing spectacular that stands out about this team. 

Offensively, the Scarlet Knights are pretty poor.  They don’t score a lot of points and are ranked 13thin the 16 team league in scoring offense with 68.0 pts per game.  They shoot 42.9% from the field which is ranked 14th in the Big East.  They are a little bit better shooting the ball from deep as they make about 33.4% from beyond the arc which is good for 9th in the conference.

As far as taking care of the ball on the offensive end, Rutgers is one of the worst teams in the league.  Their 15.5 turnovers per game is second to last in the league and they rank dead last in turnover margin at -2.91.  Rutgers does not do a very good job of distributing the ball to each other.  They average just 13.6 assists per game which is 13th in the Big East.  With stats like this, Louisville should have an easy time setting up the press and generating turnovers.  The Cards prey on teams like this with their pressure defense.  I expect Rutgers to fold under the Cards pressure and make several mistakes which will lead to some easy buckets. 

As far as the defensive side of things, Rutgers is just as bad as they are on the offensive side of the ball.  They rank 13th in the league in points given up at 71.5 ppg.  The Scarlet Knights are second worst in the conference in scoring margin at -3.5.  Only Depaul is worse at -5.4.  Rutgers does an average job at field goal defense.  The Knights are ranked 9th in the B.E. in field goal defense and 12th in three-point field goal defense  at 42.2% and 33.4% respectively.  I don’t see Louisville having many problems in getting open looks.  It’s up to the Cards if they can knock them down or not, but the opportunities should come early and often. 

When it comes to rebounding, Rutgers is downright terrible.  They are second to last in rebounding in the Big East, getting out rebounded by -2.4 boards per game.  They give up an average of 38.6 boards per game to their opponents which is also 15thin the 16 team league.  With the size of Louisville down low in Samuels and Jennings, I don’t see how it’s possible that Rutgers will be able to compete on the boards.  Louisville should wipe the glass clean all game long.

The Scarlet Knights also don’t do a very good job in generating turnovers.  They force their opponents into just 12.6 turnovers per game and rank 13th in the conference in steals with only 5.9 per game.  If Louisville is patient and doesn’t rush things offensively, I don’t see the Rutgers defense playing a major factor.  Louisville should be able to do what they want, when they want on the offensive end.

The one positive thing I can say about this Scarlet Knight squad is they block a lot of shots.  In fact, Rutgers ranks second in the conference with an average of 7.5 blocks per game.  Center Hamady Ndiaye ranks first in the B.E. and is third nationally in blocked shots per game with an average of 4.9.  This allows the Scarlet Knight defense a little room for error.  If the Louisvlle guards are able to get by the Rutgers guards and penetrate into the lane, they still have to worry about the enforcers inside.  Ndiaye has the ability to alter several shots and could present a big challenge for the Cards inside.  This especially presents a problem for a player like Samardo Samuels.  Samuels, who has a reputation of being soft and fading away from the rim, may struggle getting his shots off against Ndiaye.  This is one aspect of the game that does concern me as a Louisville fan.  

 Statistical Comparrison

Rutgers…………………..Category ……………………………………….UofL

8.0………………Points Per Game …………………79.9

71.5 …………..Opp. Points Per Game……………69.7

.429 …………..Field Goal Percentage……………448

.422 ………..Opp. Field Goal Percentage ….. …424

.334 ……….3-Pt. Field Goal Percentage …….. .328

.333……..Opp. 3-Pt. Field Goal Percentage…. .354

.669 ………….Free Throw Percentage …………. .701

-2.4 ……………..Rebound Margin…………………..+4.5

6.4 ……………….3-Pts. Per Game …………………….7.9

6.2……………..Opp. 3-Pts. Per Game……………….6.5

7.5 ……………….Blocks Per Game  ………………….4.2

5.9 …………………Steals Per Game ………………….8.2

13.6 ……………….Assists Per Game…………………15.5

15.5……………..Turnovers Per Game …………….13.8

12.6 …………Turnovers Forced Per Game ……..16.6

Players to Watch

#3 Mike Rosario-This 6’3, 180lb sophomore guard is the Scarlet Knight’s best player.  He is their go to guy on the offensive end and he produces.  He is the leading scorer on the team, averaging 16.5 ppg which is also good for 12th in the conference.  Rosario is coming off a career high in points (33) and field goals made (13) in the Scarlet Knights last victory over St. John’s and has scored in double figures during 47 of his 54 career games.   He is also the best long range shooter on the team, connecting on 51 of his 149 attempts from beyond the arc for 34.2%.  Rosario ranks third on the team in both assists (36) and steals (20).  He is, however, very turnover prone.  He is by far the team leader in turnovers with 61 on the season.  Louisville should look to exploit this weakness in his game and force him into mistakes. 

Rosario is the type of player that just makes plays.  He is a versatile scorer that can shoot it from deep, but can also put the ball on the deck and get to the rim.  He presents a tough match up for any defense and Louisville must be careful with him. 

#5 Hamady Ndiaye-  This 6’11, 235lb senior center is the enforcer inside for the Knights.  He ranks third on the team in scoring with 9.5 ppg, second in rebounding (6.5 rpg),  and first in blocked shots (4.9 bpg).  Ndiaye currently ranks first in the Big East and third in the nation in blocked shots.  He is also second among active NCAA players in career blocks with 321.  Those 321 blocks ranks Ndiaye second in school history and his 108 blocks this season is already second most among the single season leaders in school history.  

Ndiaye is a tall, physical presence that can create a problem for Louisville.  As I mentioned earlier, Samuels is going to have a tough time scoring if he continues to fade away from the goal.  Also, if Sosa, Siva, Knowles, and Smith drive the lane past the guards, they must look to pass instead of forcing up a shot.  If they try to challenge Ndiaye their ball will wind up in the stands.  They must look for the dump down or the kick out instead of trying to score because Ndiaye is just too big of a force.   

Keys To Victory

1) Don’t be over confident.  It is clear by the stats and video that Louisville is the superior team.  Everyone knows this and it could cause a lack of focus for the Cards.  They need to come out and respect Rutgers and not think they will walk all over them.  Rutgers has been playing better lately and is not going to be intimidated by Louisville.  The Cards need to come out with some intensity and play all 40 minutes.

2) Jump on Rutgers early.  The Cards need to get out of the gates quick and build up a lead early.  Take the Scarlet Knights out of the game in the first half and don’t allow them to hang around.  Upsets happen when the underdog is allowed to hang around.  If this game is close in the second half, it becomes a Rutgers advantage.  The Knights have nothing to lose and will fight the entire game.  Louisville has a lot more riding on this game and if it comes down to the final minutes, the Cards may get tense.  The best way to fight this is to just put the Knights in their place early.

3) Move the ball.  The Cards need to move the ball on offense and knock down the open shot.  They have to be smart and not let Ndiaye control the paint defensively.  If the Cards move the ball like they did against UCONN then they will have plenty of opportunities to knock down open shots.  They just have to hit them.

4) Contain Mike Rosario.  Don’t let this kid go off for 30+ points.  If he gets into a zone then he has the capability of puting Rutgers on his back and making this a game.  Pressure him into some tough shots and force him to make mistakes like he is prone to do.  If you shut down Rosario, then you shut down Rutgers.

5) Bench play!  Rutgers is not a deep team.  They rely heavily on their starters and don’t get much production off the bench.  This is where Louisville needs to dominate.  The Cards are a deep team and have several guys that can come in and play well.  I expect the Cards to wear down the Rutgers starters with pressure defense and force the Scarlet Knights to use their bench players.  If this happens, it’s a major advantage for Louisville.