The Pinkie Previews: Notre Dame (17-9 6-7) @ Louisville (16-9 7-5)

Notre Dame Figting Irish @ Louisville Cardinals
Freedom Hall Louisville, KY
Wednesday February 17, 2010
Time: 7:00 pm EST
T.V.: ESPN2
Radio: WKRD 790 AM joined in progress on WHAS 840 AM

The University of Louisville men’s basketball returns to action tonight as they look to build off their monumental upset of Syracuse this past Sunday.  The Cards return to the comfort of their home floor as they welcome the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to Freedom Hall.  Louisville is coming off a 1-1 road trip in which they experienced the low point of their season, a 17-point loss at St. John’s, and their highest point with a six-point win at #3 Syracuse.  If Louisville is going to continue to make a push to the Big Dance, tonight is a game they must win.

 Notre Dame comes in on a little bit of a slide, losing six of their last nine contests. The Fighting Irish are coming off a week in which they lost two straight, the first being a three point decision at Seton Hall last Thursday, and most recently a one point loss at home to St. John’s on Sunday.  Notre Dame had been one of the teams battling Louisville for a bubble spot in March’s tournament, but their latest struggles have the Fighting Irish on the outside looking in.  A win tonight against the Cards, could put them right back in the conversation.

 Louisville and Notre Dame have hooked up 24 times in program history with the Cards holding a 15-9 advantage.  Louisville has dominated the Irish in Freedom Hall, going 10-1 all time.  The Cards are 4-5 in South Bend and are just 1-3 on a neutral site. 

 Meet the Irish  

The major story for Notre Dame in this game is the likely absence of Luke Harangody.  He is nursing an injured knee and his status is listed as day-to-day, but word has been that he is a long shot to be in the lineup.  This is a huge loss for the Irish as Harangody seemingly always puts up big numbers against the Cards.  Harangody was selected as the Preseason Big East Player of the Year and was a National Player of the Year candidate.  He is without question the best player on this Irish team, averaging better than 24 points per game and 10 rebounds.  His 24 ppg ranks second nationally and his 10.1 rebounding average is 23^rdbest in the country.  He has also scored in double figures in every game this season and has recorded 12 double-doubles. This is a major loss that Notre Dame can’t afford. The Irish are 0-1 in his absence.

 Notre Dame is a team that is mainly built on offense.  This team does an excellent job of working the ball from the inside out.  Their strength is on the inside with Harangody, but since he draws so much attention, the outside jumpers have opened up and Notre Dame can knock them down.  Notre Dame is also a very patient team that moves the ball well and doesn’t force anything. They wait for the defense to break down then find the open shots that they knock down with consistency.  Their philosophy is to get the ball in the post to their go to guy and let him make decisions, but with Harangody possibly on the shelf with a knee injury, the entire offensive game plan might change. 

 The Irish are one of the top shooting teams in the nation and are among the Big East leaders in scoring.  The Irish are making 41% of their three’s which ranks them sixth nationally.  Their starting forward Tim Abromaitis can flat out dial it up from deep.  We will talk more about him later, but his 49% average from beyond the arc is second in the nation.  Overall, Notre Dame is shooting 47.7% from the field, which is third in the Big East, and their 79.2 points per game is fifth in the conference.  

What’s most impressive about this Notre Dame team is how well they take care of the ball.  As I mentioned, this team is patient and moves the ball well until they find the openings.  The Irish are third in the nation in assists per game (18.0) and are fifth nationally in fewest turnovers per contest (10.4).  Their assist/turnover ratio of 1.71 is tops in the country.  This is the perfect recipe against Louisville’s defense.  The Cards like to apply a lot of pressure and the best way to beat this pressure is ball movement.  Notre Dame is a very intelligent team that doesn’t make mistakes and won’t cave into the Louisville pressure easily. 

On the defensive side of things, the Irish are a little shaky.  They don’t force a lot of turnovers and allow their opponents to shoot a fairly high percentage.  Notre Dame opponents are committing only 10.4 turnovers a game, and are shooting better than 44% from the field.  The Irish field goal defense is the second worst in the 16 team Big East and their three-point defense is ranked dead last at 37.7%.  This is an advantage to the Cards who love to shoot the outside jumper.  Louisville will get several good looks in this game and need to knock them down if they are to win.  The Cards must move the ball like they did against Syracuse and make the extra pass.  This is what leads to open threes and points.  

Team Comparison

Players to Watch

#21 Tim Abromaitis-This junior forward is Notre Dame’s biggest threat.  He stands at 6’8 and can flat out shoot the rock.  As I mentioned earlier, Abromaitis ranks second nationally in three-point percentage at 49%.  Overall he converts on 52.6% from the field.  He is second on the team in scoring behind Harangody, averaging 16.9 points per game.  He also averages 4.8 rebounds per game, which is third on the team.  The Cards better be aware of this kid on the perimeter at all times.  If Louisville gives him even one ounce of breathing room, he will drain it.  Louisville has done a good job defensively on shooters so far this season, most recently against Andy Rautins of Syracuse, and I expect them to have a strong game plan for Abromaitis.   

#23 Ben Hansbrough-If the last name sounds familiar you are probably thinking in the right direction.  Ben is the younger brother of former North Carolina standout Tyler Hansbrough.  Even though he isn’t his brother, Ben has some tremendous talent.  He is the third leading scorer on the Irish squad, producing 11.8 points per game.  He is also second on the team in assists with 125 on the season, but most importantly he takes great care of the basketball.  Hansbrough leads the Big East and is third nationally in assist/turnover ratio (3.13).  He is also a weapon when it comes to shooting the ball.  Hansbrough connects on 48.5% of his shots, including 46.4% from downtown.  This kid can hurt the Cards in a variety of ways so Louisville must guard him close.  The Cards need to apply hard defensive pressure on him and force him to make difficult passes and take bad shots.  If Louisville lets him split their defense and get into the lane, he will find the open men on the perimeter or underneath and it could be a long day for the Cards. 

 Key’s To Victory

1) Guard the perimeter.  Notre Dame loves to shoot the three and can drain them.  The Cards need to be aware of where the shooters are at all time and have someone shadow Abromaitis everywhere on the court.  I expect the Cards to extend their defense a little bit further to prevent the Irish from getting good looks from deep. 

 2) Turn up the pressure.  The Cards have had some problems with their press in the last few games.  Teams are starting to get the ball up court a lot faster, thus creating easy buckets.  Louisville needs to have an effective press and apply good ball pressure in the half court sets if they want to beat Notre Dame.  The Irish don’t turn the ball over very often and do a great job of being patient.  The Cards defense needs to take the Irish out of their comfort zone and force them into tough passes and shots.  Louisville needs to find a way to create turnovers and get some easy buckets on the other end. 

 3) Look inside.  If Harangody is out, the Cards will have a huge advantage in the frontcourt.  Give the ball to Samardo Samuels and let the big man go to work.  He is much bigger and stronger than what Notre Dame will throw at him so get him the ball.  If he is effective early, the Irish might start to double down, thus creating more open looks from the outside.

 4) Make shots.  Notre Dame’s defense is not that good.  They allow teams to shoot at a high percentage and give up a lot of good looks.  Louisville must take advantage of this weakness and convert on the opportunities that are given.  The Cards did a great job of moving the ball against the ‘Cuse on Sunday and it paid off.  If Louisville is patient, finds the holes in the defense, and looks for the open man it will be lights out for the Irish.  I expect the penetration and kick by the guards to be effective in this one.