The Pinkie Previews: Louisville vs. Kentucky (Cards Perspective)

 Louisville Cardinals vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday September 4th, 2010
Louisville, KY Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium
T.V.: ABC
Radio: WHAS 840 am and WKRD 790 am

It’s finally that time of year again.  It’s the first weekend in September which means college football is back.  This Saturday, the frenzy hits the Derby City with the Battle of the Bluegrass between the Louisville Cardinals and Kentucky Wildcats. 

Louisville is coming off another disappointing season, going 4-8 in 2009 and missing a bowl game for the third straight yet.  The Kragthorpe era is officially over and there is a new sheriff in town.  His name is Charlie Strong and he is here for one main reason.  To return Louisville to the BCS contender status they earned back in 2007.  Strong comes from the University of Florida where he filled the role of defensive coordinator.  In his time as a Gator, he won two national championships and was the leader of one of the best defenses in the country.  Strong brings that winning mentality to Louisville and is ready to get down to business.  Strong is a shot in the arm to the Louisville program and is exactly the type of coach that the Cardinals need.  He is all business and will not accept losing no matter what.  This is the type of attitude that the program lacked under Kragthorpe. 

The strength of this 2010 Cardinal team will be the offense.  Louisville returns nine starters from last year’s team including play makers such as receiver Doug Beaumont, running back Victor Anderson, and quarterback Adam Froman.  Last season, Froman was Louisville’s leading passer with 1,354 passing yards, six touchdowns, and five picks.  Froman is a bigger sized quarterback with good arm strength.  Last year he proved to be the best quarterback on this team with his decision making and ability to throw strikes to receivers.  His main down fall is he isn’t very mobile, so if he runs into trouble in the pocket, he will go down.  Hopefully he will learn the ability to move outside the pocket and escape the pass rush in order to turn negative plays into positive ones. 

 Beaumont returns for his senior season and should be the main target for Froman.  Beaumont was second on the team last year in receptions with 38 for 465 yards.  He is a speedster with break away ability.  He has yet to find the end zone in his first three seasons and his small size could be an issue when going up against bigger, stronger defensive backs. He is most dangerous when he uses his speed to pick up yards after catch.  You will probably see him catch balls over the middle or on short out-routes and try to make plays with his legs.   He is not a deep threat but has reliable hands which make him an effective target.

Victor Anderson returns after seeing action in just 8 games last year due to a shoulder injury.  When healthy, there is no doubt he is the best rusher on this team.  Despite four games last year, he was still the teams leading rusher with 473 yards and five touchdowns.  In last year’s battle at Kentucky, he rushed for 110 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries.  Anderson is a hard runner that is exceptional at finding holes.  He hits the holes hard and has enough speed to run away from defenses.  The only question coming into this 2010 season is if Anderson is healthy enough to last all 12 games.  If he is, he is due for a monster year.

The strength of this Louisville offense is by far the running backs.  Bilal Powell and Blayne Donnell are experienced backs that are hard, punishing rushers that can get the tough yards.  Also, with an experienced offensive line made of mostly seniors, the running game should be a major asset to this team. 

If Louisville is to beat their rivals from Lexington, it will have to be the offense that carries them.  The question marks coming into the 2010 season about Kentucky are mainly on the defensive side of the ball.  The Kentucky defensive line is led by All-SEC second teamer Dequin Evans, but the linebackers are young and inexperienced.  This is where the Cards should look to take advantage.  The secondary of Kentucky is fast and physical and outrunning them down field is out of the question.  Louisville needs to concentrate on short routes, especially of the middle and try to exploit the linebackers of Kentucky.  Let the speed of Beaumont and the size of Josh Chichester take over and help move the ball down the field in chunks.  If Louisville can consistently gain positive yardage and not get caught in second/third and longs, they will be effective.  Keep the Kentucky defense on their heels and hit them with a balanced attack of the run and pass.  The Cats won’t know what to expect next.

The problem that I see in this matchup for Louisville comes on the defensive side of things.  Louisville is replacing their two main defensive linemen in L.T. Walker and L.D. Scott.  The defensive line was terrible at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks last year and with the inexperience at the position in 2010, this could be an issue  once again.  Kentucky has an experienced quarterback in Mike Hartline, who has beaten Louisville twice, and when given time to scan the field he will find receivers.  Louisville must find a way to pressure Hartline into mistakes and maybe force a turnover or two from him.

Besides Hartline, Kentucky has weapons at both receiver and running back.  Their star receiver is Randall Cobb who let’s face it, is just a beast.  This kid has the size, speed, hands, and pretty much everything else you need to be a big play maker.  He will also be used at quarterback in the “Wildcat” formation and when given space can make big plays happen.  He is a treat to run the ball, catch the ball, and can even throw it with some consistency.  There is no telling when and how Joker will use Cobb which creates a problem for the Louisville defense.  You have to limit his touches as much as you can. 

With the inexperience and youth along the defensive front, the Louisville linebackers must step up in the holes and stop the Kentucky running game.  Star running back Derrick Locke returns and is a duel threat as he can play receiver as well.  The Cards linebackers need to eye him in the back field and not let him get loose.  The linebacking corp of the Cards is probably their only bright spot.  They return starters Brandon Heath and Antwone Canady but must replace leader Jon Dempsy.  I look for Dexter Heyman to see a lot of action as a starting linebacker and believe that he can fill the void left by Dempsy.  Heyman is a big physical player who saw action in both is Freshman and Sophomore seasons.  The linebackers must be fast from sideline to sideline to keep up with Locke and must protect the middle of the field from the likes of Randall Cobb. 

The Louisville secondary will be another weakness for the defensive group.  The Cardinals return only one starter in the secondary, CB Johnny Patrick.  Everybody else that will see action has seen little playing time on the D-1 level and will be tested early in the Kentucky game. 

This matchup comes down to the offenses.  It’s a matter of who does a better job of exploiting the other team’s defense and who can take care of the football. Turnovers are a big equalizer and may make up for the weaknesses on defense.  I think this game will be an average scoring game with the Cards coming out on top in a close one 27-24.