The Pinkie Previews: Louisville (18-10 9-6) @ UCONN (17-11 7-8)

University of Louisville Cardinals @ University of Connecticut Huskies
Gampel Pavilion Storrs, Connectiuct
Sunday February 28, 2010
Time: 2:06 pm EST
T.V.: CBS (Gus Johnson and Bill Raftery)
Radio: WHAS 840 AM

The University of Louisville men’s basketball team faces an extremely important road test tomorrow afternoon when they travel to Storrs, Connecticut to battle the UCONN Huskies.  The Cards are firmly on the bubble as of now and are looking for quality wins down the stretch to put them over the top.  A win against fellow bubble team UCONN is exactly what this team needs.  Louisville missed out on a chance to beat a quality opponent this past Tuesday when they fell to #11 Georgetown 70-60 at Freedom Hall.  Louisville led by five at the half, but Austin Freeman’s 24 second half points helped the Hoyas dominate the second half.  Before the Georgetown loss, the Cards had been playing well.  They had won three straight, including victories over #2 Syracuse and a double OT win against fellow bubble team Notre Dame.  Louisville needs to put together another Syracuse like effort if they have any chance of beating the Huskies on the road. 

UCONN is a team that is hard to figure out.  Everybody in America, including myself, had written the Huskies off earlier this month.  They had lost at home to Cincinnati 48-60 on February 13th in what Jim Calhoun called the most embarrassing loss of his career.  The Cincy lossleft UCONN with a 14-11 record, including a 4-8 Big East record.  Nobody thought the Huskies had a chance to make the Big Dance.  Since that bad loss at home, UCONN has transformed itself into a brand new team.  Over the past two weeks, the Huskies have been the hottest team in the conference, if not the country.  UCONN has picked up victories over #3 Villanova on the road and #8 West Virginia at home, as well as a thrashing of Big East bottom feeder Rutgers.  The three straight victories have re-energized the Huskies and have experts now have them back in the tournament conversation.

This will be the second time the Cards and Huskies meet on the hardwood this season.  Louisville claimed an 82-69 victory back on February 1st in Freedom Hall where four Cardinals scored in double figures, led by Edgar Sosa’s 15.  These two teams haven’t met in Connecticut since 2008 when the Huskies escaped with a two point victory.  Louisville and UCONN have battled eight times in program history with the Huskies holding a 5-3 advantage.

Meet the Huskies….again

The Huskies are a very athletic team that builds itself around defense.  UCONN leads the nation in blocked shots (8.1 bpg) and are 13th nationally in field goal percentage defense (.383).  The Huskies are very quick and use their athleticism to erase mistakes on the defensive end.  It will be difficult for Cardinal guards to drive past their Connecticut counterparts and if they do get in the lane, Stanley Robinson and the rest of the Huskie front court will be there to swat their shots into the stands.  The best chance Louisville has to attack this UCONN defense is ball movement.  The Cards need quick passes to catch the Huskie defense on their heels and make them scramble a bit.  If Louisville can move the ball effectively, they should be able to get some open looks around the perimeter.  Samardo Samuels is going to be a key factor in this Louisville offense.  He needs to learn that when he gets the ball inside tomorrow, that he can’t force up his shots.   If he does try to score every time, his shots will be erased into the stands or miss badly.  He needs to take what UCONN gives him and look to pass it back out to the guards.  If Louisville can run an effective inside-out game they will get good shots and score.  I’m not saying Samuels shouldn’t look for his shots in the paint, but he must be patient and look at other options. 

 On offense UConn is led by a trio of stars: Senior guard Jerome Dyson, who has scored 1,549 career points, leads the Huskies in scoring and has produced 20 or more points in 12 games this season (18.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.6 apg).  Sophomore guard and Dyson’s backcourt mate KembaWalker is second in the BIG EAST in assists with 5.5 apg and contributes  14.1 points per game.  And Senior forward Stanley Robinson (15.6 ppg, 7.5rpg), a career 1,000-point scorer, has scored in double digits in 33 straight games.  

 UCONN is effective on the offensive end because of its athleticism.  The Huskies are probably the quickest team Louisville has faced this season and in the first meeting, the Huskie guards raced up and down the court right past an ineffective Cardinal press.  Dyson and Walker do an exceptional job of penetrating the lane and finishing at the rim.  The same can be said for Robinson who has one of the most unbelievable vertical hops I’ve ever seen.  For Louisville to stop UCONN, they are going to have to do a better job of stopping the dribble drive.  This has been a problem for the Cards over the past few weeks and UCONN is a team that will exploit this weakness.  Walker and Dyson not only have the ability to drive and score, but can also knock down the long distance shot.  I look for Walker to drive and kick several times during the game tomorrow to Dyson on the perimeter or Robinson underneath.  Louisville will need to rely on its help defense to get into the passing lanes and not allow this to happen.

 Team Comparison

Keys to Victory

1) Contain the UCONN guards.  Walker and Dyson are one of the best back courts in the country.  Both have extreme quickness and can score.  Louisville needs to contain them on the drive and force them to shoot from the outside instead of in the paint.  Also, Louisville must keep up with them on the press.  Last time these two teams met, Dyson and Walker just flew right through the press which lead to easy layups and buckets in the paint.  The Louisville guards are going to need to play fast if they want to stop this UCONN double threat. 

2)  Ball movement.  UCONN does a great job on fiedgoal defense.  Louisville is going to have to find a way to get some open looks.  This is done by ball movement.  With UCONN’s quickness, they can close out on shooters in a hurry and recover when they get burned.  If for some reason the UCONN guards do get beat, the Huskies have an athletic frontline that can erase shots.  Louisville needs to move the ball quickly and look for shots by going inside out.  Put the UCONN defense on their heels and force them to start scrambling around.  If the Cards do this, open perimeter shots should be available.  Sosa, Delk, Smith, and Knowles are going to have to knock them down. 

3) Rebound the rock.  UCONN is a pretty good rebounding team and can out jump the Cards any day of the week.  Louisville needs to do a good job of blocking out and putting a body on a body.  If Louisville doesn’t block out, Robinson and Gavin Edwards will attack the ball off the rim and stick it back in.  The Cards can’t give up second chances or they will get beat.

4) SamardoSamuels is a key all by himself.  He needs to come out with a purpose tomorrow and not be intimidated.  The past two games it looks as if Samuels has been afraid.  First it was Mac Koshwal of Depaul that dominated Samuels and most recently was Greg Monroe.  Samuels needs to play solid interior defense and play physical.  On offense, he needs to make better decisions and take what the defense gives him.  He should always look to score, but realize when the shot is not there and kick it out.  Samuels has been forcing a lot of shots recently and this must stop.

5) Play with a sense of urgency.  The Cards must realize that their tournament lives are at stake these last three games and play with a purpose.  Lately the Cards haven’t showed this sense of urgency.  I expect Louisville to finally wake up tomorrow and win a big game that they need.