The Pinkie Previews: Louisville (15-8 6-4) @ St. John’s (12-10) (2-8)

University of Louisville @ St. John’s University
Madison Square Garden New York, New York
Thursday February 11, 2010
Time: 7:00 pm EST
T.V.: ESPN2
Radio: WHAS 840 AM

 The University of Louisville men’s basketball team will try and extend it’s current winning streak to three tonight as the Cards travel to NYC to take on the St. John’s Red Storm.  Louisville has had their backs against the wall the past few weeks and are starting to respond.  Louisville has won two straight over conference opponents which include UCONN and most recently a 76-60 victory over Rutgers last Saturday. 

The Cards are once again faced with a must win situation at the Garden.  Louisville really doesn’t have a signature win so a  loss tonight against a bad team would not help the cause.  Louisville must win the games they are supposed to win, and then pull of an upset or two down the stretch against a highly ranked opponent.

St. John’s comes into this contest ranked 13th in the 16 team Big East.  The Johnies are currently rididng a five game losing streak which includes a loss to an absurdly bad Rutgers team by 12.  In their last outing, the Red Storm got waxed on their home court by West Virginia 79-60.  In that game, St. John’s held a 16 point second half lead and let it get away. 

The Cards and Red Storm are no strangers to each other.  The two teams met back on January 9th at Freedom Hall in a game that saw Louisville pull out a seven point victory 75-68.  That game was a lot closer than people may think.  In fact, St. John’s held a four point halftime lead against the Cards before Louisville took control in the second half.  St. John’s had four players score in double figures during the first meeting , led by star D.J. Kennedy’s 20 points.  Louisville was led by Jerry Smith’s 16 points and Jared Swopshire’s 15. 

Meet the Red Storm…..Again

On paper, St. John’s looks like a pretty average team.  They don’t put up extraordinary numbers offensively, averaging only 67 points per game, but they do the small things to keep themselves in a position to win.  The Red Storm are an ok shooting team.  They make 41% of their shots from the field, including 32.6% from deep.  These numbers aren’t spectacular and the Johnnies can’t rely on their offensive to win.  This means the Red Storm need to play to their strengths which include taking care of the ball, rebounding, and great passing.  

The Red Storm also do a pretty good job on the defensive end.   They apply good pressure to their opponents and force them to make mistakes.  They are forcing opponents into nearly 15 turnovers per game and average seven steals.  They also play long and contest a lot of shots.  The Red Storm average just over four blocks per contest, the same as Louisville.  St. John’s also does a good job of holding their opponents to just 65 points per game.  As explosive as Louisville’s offense is, the Red Storm are going to have to have one of their best defensive efforts.  If they can keep Louisville in the 60’s, they have a great chance to win.

Also, against the pressure Louisville defense, St. John’s will need to be smart and take care of the basketball.  They have done a decent job of that so far this year, committing only 13 TO’s per contest, and will need to keep up that kind of play to have a chance against the Cards.

The Red Storm are also a pretty good rebounding team.  St. John’s averages 37 boards per game, and are outrebounding their opponents by 1.5 rebounds per contest.  Louisville averages slightly better numbers on the glass, but should face a tough challenge tonight. 

A major disadvantage for the Red Storm is their size.  The tallest player in their starting lineup is just 6’8.  Against the monsters that Louisville with throw at them in Samuels and Jennings, St. John’s will have a tough time.  Louisville needs to exploit this weakness and take advantage on the inside. 

 Statistical Comparison

Players to Watch

#1 D.J. Kennedy-   The Red Storm is led by Junior Forward D.J. Kennedy.  Kennedy is a flat out stat stuffer.  He  leads St. John’s in pretty much every statistical category including scoring (15.0ppg), rebounding (6.6 rpg), assists (3.1 apg), steals (1.2 spg), and minutes played (31.2 min per game) .  Kennedy is phenomenal on the offensive end.  He is the St. John’s go to player withgood reason.  He is shooting 45% from the field including 35% from downtown.  Kennedy has scored in double figures 18 times this season and 53 times in his career.  He has been named to the Big East Honor Roll four times this season and is the most recent member of St. John’s 1,000 point scoring club.  As I said, this kid can do it all on both ends of floor.  He can shoot it from long range, but is also athletic enough to take his man off the dribble and finish at the rim.  In the first meeting against Louisville this year, Kennedy finished with a game high 20 points and collected 8 rebounds to go along with 2 assists. 

#12 Dwight Hardy-  Hardy is a junior guard that has started just two games this season and mainly comes off the bench.  Despite coming off the pine, he puts up starter like numbers.  He is second on the team in scoring with 11.8 ppg.  Hardy is also St. John’s best three-point shooter as he bombs it in at a 39% clip.  He has scored in double figures 14 times this year, including a career high 19 point performance against Cincinnati earlier this season. Hardy produced a 12 point, 2 rebound performance earlier this season against the Cards in which he shot 5-10 from the field. 

Other players of note include #23 Paris Horne who averages 8.4 points per game as the starting point guard.  He poured in 15 points against the Cards back in January.  Also, starting forward #5 Sean Evans was the fourth double digit scorer for St. John’s against Louisville earlier this year when he netted 10.  On the season, Evans is averaging 7.0 points and 6.3 rebounds. 

Keys to Victory

1)  Don’t let D.J. Kennedy beat you.  The Cards need to force other St. John’s players to play their best games of the season in order for the Red Storm to get a win.  Louisville can’t let Kennedy go nuts all over the court.  This includes, scoring, rebounding, assists, and defensively.  Louisville must force him into some tough shots and make him pass the ball away from the basket.  Louisville’s pressure defense has been effective this year against some great players and this should be no different.  Force Kennedy into mistakes and take him out of his element.  The Cards must also keep him off the glass and limit his second chance opportunities.  D.J. Kennedy cannot be the reason Louisville loses this game.

2) Turn up the pressure.  St. John’s has done a great job this year protecting the basketball.  Louisville must make their guards feel uncomfortable and force them into mistakes.  This will lead to some fast breaks and more opportunities at the offensive end for the Cards.  If St. John’s gets rattled early, it will be tough for them to get back in it.

3) The Cards must score.  St. John’s has done a good job holding teams to low scoring outputs this season.  They are giving up only 65 points per game.  Louisville likes to play an uptempo style which includes shooting a lot of threes.  The Cards must hit their shots, get run outs, and convert on some easy opportunities.  If the St. John’s defense holds the Cards in the low 60’s, chances are Louisville could lose. 

4) Pound the ball inside.  Let Samuels go to work all day against the smaller front line of St. John’s.  Samuels has really improved his game since conference play and I look for him to be a beast again tonight.