The Pinkie Previews: Louisville (13-7 4-3) @ West Virginia (16-3 5-2)

Louisville Cardinals @ West Virginia Mountaineers
WVU Coliseum Morgantown, WV
Saturday January 30th, 2009
Time: 12:00 pm EST
T.V.: ESPN
Radio: WKRD 790 AM or 101.7 FM

The University of Louisville men’s basketball team returns to the site where they clinched the Big East Championship last season as they travel to Morgantown, WV Saturday to face the Mountaineers.  The Cards are coming off a hard fought victory, 68-60 over conference rival Cincinnati last Sunday at Freedom Hall.  That win snapped a three game skid that saw the Cards drop from first in the Big East to seventh.  Now Louisville looks to build on that momentum as they travel into a very hostile environment in coal country. 

The Mountaineers are putting together one of their best seasons in recent memory with a record of 16-3.  They have won three straight and are coming off a throttling of Depaulin their last meeting, 62-46 on Tuesday night.  Last weekend, West Virginia took down one of the Big Ten’s best, #21 Ohio State Buckeyes, in Morgantown 71-65. 

The Cards andMountaineers have met nine times in program history, withLouisville holding a 7-2 advantage.  The last meeting between the two came on the last day of the season a year ago with the Cards winning 62-59 in Morgantown.  Louisville is 3-1 on their home court against WVU and 2-1 in Morgantown.  The Cards are 2-0 in meetings on a neutral court. 

Meet the Moutaineers 

At 16-3, West Virginia is one of the top teams in the country.  They are ranked ninth in both the AP and USA Today polls and seventh  in RPI.  West Virginia has also played the 10th most difficult schedule in America and has had tremendous success.  This proves that the Mountaineers are indeed a Final Four contender.

West Virginia is a team that doesn’t put up overly impressive numbers on the offensive and defensive sides, but they don’t make mistakes.  That combined with rebounding has been the key to West Virginia’s success.  The Mountaineers rank 13th in the nation in assists per game (16.6 apg) and only commit 11.9 turnovers per game.  This means their assist/turnover ratio of 1.4 is 12th best in the nation. 

The Mountaineers also do a tremendous job on the boards.  They don’t average a tremendous amount of rebounds, only 38.2 per game, but they do an exceptional job of holding their opponents off the glass.  The Mountaineers are eighth in the country in rebounding margin (+8.2) and are ranked first in the Big East in defensive rebounding with 30.3 per game.  WVU limits their opponents on the offensive end to only one shot which helps cut their opponents possessions.  When a team only gets one shot and can’t force WVU into many turnovers, their opportunities to score are very few.  This is what the Mountaineers key on and take advantage of.

Offensively, WVU is very balanced.  They have four starters that average double figures in scoring led by senior guard Da’SeanButler with 15.9 ppg.  Once you get outside of the starting lineup, WVU lacks depth.  Bob Huggins doesn’t like to go to his bench very much and this could cost WVU against the Cards.  Louisville has a very deep and experienced bench that is capable of putting up some good numbers.  If two or three of the starters have off nights, the Mountaineer offense could struggle. 

WVU Stats and Big East Ranking

Scoring Offense (8th) …… 73.5
Scoring Defense (2nd) ….. 61.5
Scoring Margin (4th) ……. +12.1
Free Throw Percentage (8th) ….. 68.1
Field Goal Percentage (10th) …….. 44.5
Field Goal Percentage Defense (13th) …… 43.2
3-Point Field Goal Percentage (6th) …….. 35.8
3-Point Field Goal Percentage Defense (5th) …….. 31.8
3-Point Field Goals Made (6th) ……… 7.7
Rebounding (9th) ………… 38.2
Rebounding Defense (1st) ……… 30.3
Offensive Rebounds (3rd) ………. 15.7
Rebounding Margin (2nd) …….. +7.9
Blocked Shots (9th) ……… 4.22
Assists (3rd) ……… 16.6
Steals (12th) ……… 6.4
Turnover Margin (4th) …….. +2.74
Assist/Turnover Ratio (3rd) ………. 1.40

Players to Watch

1) #1 Da’Sean Butler-  Butler is a 6’7, 230lb senior guard that leads the Mountaineers in scoring with just under 16 points a game.  He currently ranks 6th on the school’s all-time scoring list and holds the school record for most double figure scoring games in a career with 92.  Butler also leads this year’s Mountaineer squad in assists (66), assist/turnover ratio (2.0), and minutes played (33 min per game).  He is the do it all player on this Mountaineer team.  He is a great ball handler that can take the ball to the rim or kick it to a teammate.  He is also a three-point threat as he leads WVU in three’s with 30 on the season.  He shoots 35% from deep.  To go along with his 15.9 ppg, Butler also averages 6.4 rebounds per game, and 3.5 assists.

2) #3 Devin Ebanks-Ebanks is a 6’9, 215lb sophomore that is a huge inside presence for WVU.  Ebanks is a versatile scorer that can put the ball in the hole in many ways.  He is third on the team in scoring with an average of 11.5 ppg.  For his size, he is a very athletic and very quick.  He plays with great confidence and will take his man off the dribble to finish at the rim, but isn’t afraid to step back and knock down the outside jumper.  Ebanksis a physical player for his size that will bang around in the post and dominate the boards.  He leads the team in rebounding with 8.0 boards per game which also ranks seventh in the Big East.  Ebanks also leads WVU in free throw percentage (83%) and defensive rebounding (5.3 per game). 

3) #5 Kevin Jones- Jones is a 6’7, 245lb senior forward that is an outstanding offensive player.  He is secondon the team in scoring with 14.1 ppg and is second in rebounding with 7.8 rpg.  When Jones gets the ball in his hands, he usually finds a way to score.  He leads WVU in field goal percentage at 55.4% which also ranks ninth in the Big East.  Jones is also a tremendous outside shooter, converting on 43% of his attempts from beyond the arc.  He is not only a good rebounder, but specifically a great offensive rebounder.  He ranks third in the conference in offensive rebounding, collecting 4.11 per game. 

Keys To Victory

1) The Cards must play big.  WVU has a very big lineup with only one starter under 6’7.  Jennings and Samuels will once again get the start together for Louisville and both must be effective.  The Card’s big men need to match WVU in physicality and quickness.  Jennings and Samuels need to controll the boards and not let WVU have their way like they are used to.  If the Cards can limit WVU on the glass and pick up some offensive boards of their own, they will have a chance to win.

2) Wear down the Mountaineers.  This means press, press, and more press.  WVU isn’t a very deep team.  The Cards must pressure them all over the court and attempt to wear the starters down.  If Louisville can get Huggins to use his bench, the Cards will have the advantage.  Also, WVU doesn’t make a lot of mistakes and doesn’t turn the ball over.  Louisville must apply extensive pressure to generate these turnovers and throw West Virginia out of their rhythm. 

3) Hit shots.  The Cards are going into a tough atmosphere and they may get flustered.  They can’t let this happen.  Louisville must remain poised and not make mistakes on the offensive end.  They must play smart basketball and work from the inside out.  This has been Louisville’s strength when executed properly.  The Cards will have plenty of open opportunities against the WVU defense, so they must connect.  If Louisville is flustered and can’t make shots, they will get blown out.