The Pinkie Previews: Cincinnati (17-14, 7-11) vs. Louisville (20-11, 11-7)

A big chunk of the Pinkie crew is marooned down in Florida with a temporarily virus-infested computer, so I’m going to be stepping in to do a quick preview of this evening’s matchup between the Louisville Cardinals and Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati Bearcats (11) vs. Louisville Cardinals (7)
Madison Square Garden New York, NY
Wednesday March 10, 2010
Time: 9:00 pm EST…but probably later
T.V.: ESPN

Last Meeting: UofL 68, Cincinnati 60 (Jan. 24, 2010 in Freedom Hall)

The University of Louisville Cardinals open second round play in the 2010 Big East Tournament against the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Bearcats entered the Tournament as the 11 seed and had to survive a 69-68 nailbiter to knock off Rutgers for their first ever win in the Big East Tournament. Lance Stephenson hit the go ahead free throw with 1.8 seconds left just hours after being named Big East Freshman of the Year.

Having defeated Syracuse for the second time this season in their farewell to Freedom Hall, the Cards play their first game of the season as NCAA Tournament locks. Even so, UofL stands to gain quite a bit this week by winning a couple games in Madison Square because the Cards would likely be destined for the dreaded 8/9 game in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today.

Meet the Bearcats

Cincinnati is a team that focuses on two things: Defense and Rebounding. The Bearcats are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation, ranking in the top 40 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Yancey Gates leads a frontline that pursues the ball very well off the glass.

Rebounding is the main reason why Cincinnati survived the first round, even though they shot just 37% from the field. They held a 44-28 advantage on the boards, including 19 offensive. We all know that the Cards are awful at closing out possessions on the defensive glass, so this is a major area of concern. UofL was able to stay within four boards of Cincinnati the last time around. If that repeats itself, I believe Louisville will advance.

The last time the teams met, the game looked like it would have major implications for the NCAA futures of both teams. Cincinnati entered the game 13-6 with a 4-3 Big East record, while UofL was 12-7 and 3-3. It turns out that that’s exactly what happened. Beginning with the UofL game, Cincinnati has finished the season 4-8, falling completely out of the running for an at-large bid, while UofL is 8-4 since that game and assured of a bid to the Big Dance.

The Bearcats are led by former Cardinal assistant (2001-03) and Pitino disciple, Mick Cronin. Slick Rick is 4-1 against Mick, with the lone loss coming in 2008 when the Cardinals fell 58-57. Pitino is 23-6 all-time against his former assistants.

Players To Watch

#5 Deonta Vaughn- Senior guard is averaging 11.2 ppg and has connected on 53 of 159, including just 9 of 40 (22.5%) the last 11 games. He drained 4 of 7 threes against UofL, but those were his only points. Cincinnati is most effective when he distributes the ball, but his assist numbers are down big in Big East play.

#33 Lance Stephenson- The aforementionedBig East Freshman of the Year is averaging 12.0 ppg and 5.4 rpg for the Bearcats this year. Stephenson is a physical scorer with NBA skills and could be a matchup nightmare for anyone at this level, particularly the Cards. In addition to his scoring, he is aggressively attacking the offensive glass in recent games, which is a bit frigtening for Ricky P and company.

#34 Yancy Gates- Sophomore forward averages 10.5 ppg and 6.0 rpg and is one of the top post players in the conference. Gates is foul prone however, and struggles to stay on the court and out of foul trouble. He was a revelation at the start of the season, notching two double-doubles in his first four outings. However, he has just two such performances since.

Keys To Victory

1) Rebounding – I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Cincinnati’s best option for beating UofL is making it hard on the Cards to score, closing out possessions with defensive boards, and attacking missed shots on the offensive glass. If UofL can limit Cincinnati’s second chance opportunities, the Bearcats are very capable of a brickfest.

2) Shot Selection – The Bearcats just don’t turn you over that much.
A rushed shot is an absolute gift to them because they are probably going to clean up the miss. UofL has to explore the defense, whether they are in zone or man, and make them defend for extended periods of time.

3) Samardo Samuels – Samuels, first of all, has got to pull his weight on the glass. If he doesn’t find a body to block out, Yancy Gates and company are going to have a field day. It would also be a bonus if Samuels could anchor himself in the post and get some of the Bearcat bigs in foul trouble.

4) Force Mistakes – UofL was able to dig out from a first half 11 point deficit in the two teams’ last matchup because of 11 steals and 17 forced turnovers. Stevenson, Vaughn, and Cashmere Wright are all extremely capable of trying to do too much. If Knowles, Sosa, Delk, Siva, and the ascendant Kyle Kuric can wreak some backcourt havoc, the Cards can get some baskets before the Bearcats can set their defense.