The Pinkie Previews: #9 Louisville (20-12) vs #8 California (23-10)

NCAA South Region First Round
#9 Louisville Cardinals vs #8 California Golden Bears
Jacksonville, FL
Date: Friday March 19, 2010
Time: 9:45 pm EST
T.V.: CBS (Jim Nantz and Clark Kellog)
Radio: WHAS 840 AM

The University of Louisville men’s basketball team will be the last team to open up March Madness play when they take on the University of California Golden Bears tonight at 9:45 pm EST.  Louisville earned their trip to the Big Dance with a convincing home win over #1 Syracuse two weeks ago to close out Freedom Hall.  But the Cards come into NCAA play with many question marks.  A poor showing against Cincinnati in the first round of the Big East Tournament has many people questioning if the Cards belong in the field of 64 and if they are capable of hanging with the Pac 10 champion Bears.  Rick Pitino usually finds a way to have his team ready to play in March, and I expect the Cards to bring it tonight. 

The California Golden Bears found their way into the tournament as an at-large selection from the Pac-10 conference.  Cal was the Pac-10 regular season champion and was upset by Washington in the conference tournament championship game.  The Bears enter the game against the Cards on a bit of a hot streak as they were winners in nine of their last 11 games.  With a 23-10 overall record, including 13-5 in conference, Cal was by far the superior team in what is being labeled as a weak Pac-10.  But let me assure you, there is nothing weak about the Bears.  Cal is making their 11th appearance in the tournament and their sixth in the last 10 years.   

This is the first meeting in school history between the Cards and the Bears.  Louisville has not faired well historically against the Pac-10 conference, going 19-21.  But things have been good for the Cards lately, especially in March when Louisville has defeated Stanford, Arizona, and Washington all within the last five years. 

Meet the Golden Bears

Cal is a team built on senior leadership and experience.  The Bears start four seniors, all of which average double figures in points.  The Bears are undersized in their lineup and rely heavily on stellar guard play and three point shooting.  In fact, Cal is so good from behind the arc that three of their starters are in the top eight in school history for three’s made. 

Offensively, the Bears like to push the pace and run.  They average 78.0 points per game which is a pretty high number.  Cal doesn’t waste time in looking for their shots and will pull from about anywhere on the court, which is something the Cards need to be aware of.  Point guard Jerome Randle does a great job of protecting the ball and running an efficient offense.  Although he  stands just 5’10 he is not afraid to drive the lane, and is excellent at creating off the bounce for a  pull up jumper or dish to the wing.  The Bears will start three guards against the Cards so they will have speed all over the court.  This type of team has presented problems for Louisville in the past and Rick Pitino says Cal plays a similar style as Marquette. 

As a team, Cal does an excellent job at protecting the ball.  They average only 12 turnovers per game while dishing out 14.5 assists.  They are not easily affected by pressure which is something that the Louisville defense relies on.  As I mentioned earlier, the Bears do an excellent job of penetrating the lane and kicking to waiting shooters. 

Size is the only problem for Cal.  With the suspension of starting forward Omondi Amoke, the Bears will be even more undersized.  They are an average rebounding team at best and aren’t very good defensively in the post.  This should work to the Cards advantage.  If Louisville look inside early and often, Samardo Samuels should be able to get on track and have a big day. 

Team Comparisson

Statistical Comparison
                                 Cal              Uof L
Record ………………… 23-10          20-12
Scoring Average …….. 78.0            76.3
Points Allowed ……….. 68.4            66.6
Scoring Margin ……….. +9.6           +6.8
FG Percentage ……….. .477            .447
Opp. FG Percentage .. .433              .426
3-Pt. Percentage …….. .373             .339
FT Percentage ……….. .757             .703
Rebound Margin …….. +3.9             +1.6
Turnover Margin ……… +0.9          +1.7

Players to Watch

#3 Jerome Randle- This little 5’10 guard is absolutely amazing.  He was named the Pac-10 Player of the Year and leads Cal in both scoring (18.7) and assists (4.5).  He is the all-time leading scorer in Cal’s history, totaling 1,802 points in his four year career.  As I stated earlier, this kid is quick and fearless.  He isn’t afraid to get in the lane amongst the big men and challenge them at the rim.  He does an excellent job off the bounce and likes to hit the pull up mid range jumper.  What makes Randle even more dangerous is his three-point shooting ability.  He is Cal’s all-time leader in three’s made with 248 and is sixth on the list in three-point percentage.  When he isn’t scoring, Randle is dishing.  He currently is tied for second on the school’s all-time assists list with 521.  This kid can beat teams in so many ways it’s scary.  Edgar Sosa, Peyton Siva, and Preston Knowles are going to have an extremely tough time trying to keep up him.  If the Cards switch to zone to stop his penetration, he will knock down the long distance shot.  This is a match up that really worries me. 

# 23 Patrick Christopher- Christopher is a little bit of a taller guard than Randle but is just as effective.  Like his back court mate, Christopher was also named to the All-Pac 10 First Team.  He is second on the team in both scoring (16.0) and rebounding (5.4) and is a player that can also stroke it from deep.  Christopher ranks sixth in school history for three’s made (153) and is fourth on the school’s all-time scoring list with 1,681 points.  This is another potential match up problem for the Cards when facing Christopher.  He is an athletic shooting guard that can knock down the three, but also attacks the rim and goes after rebounds.  At 6’5, Christopher is a good three to four inches taller than the Cardinal shooting guards.  I expect him to use his size advantage to shoot over Louisville defenders and try to muscle his way to the rim. 

Keys to Victory

1) Contain Jermone Randle.  This is a lot easier to say than it is to do.  Cardinal guards must stay in his face all over the court and pressure him out on the perimeter.  He can’t be allowed to get off good looks at three because he will drain them.  If he penetrates, the Cards need to do a good job of rotating on defense and having the big man step up and contest the shot.  The Louisville defense will be on their heels a lot in this game, so they must be quick and recover in time to contest Cal’s shots.

2) Guard the perimeter.  Cal loves to shoot the three and can make them at a high rate.  Louisville must pressure Cal outside the arc and force them to look inside.  If the Cards can force the Bears into tough shots and turnovers, I like their chances.

3) Get the ball inside.  The lack of size for the Golden Bears is something Louisville needs to take advantage of.  Samardo Samuels should have no problems posting up and could have a monster day.  The Louisville guards need to find him early and often and let the big man go to work.  It’s up to Samardo to finish.

4) Louisville must score.  Cal is not a very good defensive team so the Cards will have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in the basket.  Louisville can’t go on their usual six minute droughts or the game will get out of hand.  The Cards need to stay poised, move the ball, and hit the open jumpers.  Edgar Sosa and Samuels need to limit their turnovers and take good shots.  If the Louisville offense plays to their potential tonight, they will win the game.