The Pinkie Maps Out Louisville’s Path to the Final Four

The Cards enter the 2010 NCAA Tournament a 9 seed and perhaps, the most inconsistent team in the entire tournament. This Louisville squad is as schizophrenic as John Nash (main character from A Beautiful Mind) and are just as likely to win by 20 points as they are to lose by 20 points, regardless of the level of competition. With their pair of wins over Syracuse, playing 2 seeded West Virginia to a last second shot in Morgantown, and tough play against some team called Kentucky in Rupp Arena, the Cards have shown the capability to play with or defeat some of the top teams in the country. For that reason, I believe the Cards could make a run to the Final Four.

Keep in mind, I said ‘could’, not should, likely, or will. For every game in which Louisville has played with or beat a top team, they have also been defeated by a lesser team and in a few cases, by wide margins. Before I get into the potential match-ups the Cards could face, let me first explain the main reason why I think it is a possibility the Cards make a run. We often call him the Slickster, others refer to him as “that rat bastard”, but the biggest reason why the Cards have a chance to reach Naptown is Rick Pitino.

Rick Pitino has a career 38-13 record in NCAA Tournament play, good for a .745 winning percentage. Only twice in his college coaching career has Pitino lost in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament, or any postseason tournament for that matter. During his time at Louisville, Pitino is 12-6 in the Big Dance, including a 5-1 record in the opening round of NCAA Tournament play. If we factor in NIT appearances, Pitino is 7-1 in opening round play of postseason tournaments at Louisville. What does this all mean?

It means if Pitino gets time to prepare for a team, he more often than not beats them. Rick Pitino’s greatest strength, in my eyes, is his ability to scout and break down an opponent. The man can put together a scouting report so detailed it can make your head spin. I once asked a former UofL player who played under Pitino what the scouting reports are like and he instantly responded with, “it all but had the opposing teams middle school report cards on it.

Rick Pitino is also undefeated in the Sweet Sixteen, not only at Louisville, but during his entire career. Not only as Pitino won every time in the Sweet Sixteen, he has put together some impressive performances. Here are the scores of Sweet Sixteen games the Cards have played under Pitino:

2005: vs. 1) Washington 93-79
2008: vs. 2) Tennessee 79-60
2009: vs. 12) Arizona 103-64

Pitino had equally impressive performances in the Sweet Sixteen while at Kentucky, including multiple 20+ point blowouts. Basically, if Pitino gets into the Sweet Sixteen, he wins and will probably win big. I believe that is because of the same reason Pitino wins in the opening round: he has a lot of time to prepare. Having said all that, let’s now look at the match-ups the Cards could face during this NCAA Tournament.

First Round
California Golden Bears (8)

Led by former Stanford head coach Mike Montgomery, Cal comes into the tournament having won the Pac-1o regular season championship and reached their conference tournament final. Our preview specialist, Biscuit, will be here on Friday with a full preview, but here are some things to know about Cal.

The Golden Bears depend heavily on their senior guard play. Led by Jerome Randle, the Pac-1o player of the year and Cal’s all-time leading scorer, and Patrick Christopher, an all Pac-10 selection. Randle averages 18.7 points per game and 4.4 assists per game. He also is automatic from the foul line as he shoots 93.5%. Patrick Christopher averages 14.5 points per game and shoots 36% from the three-point range, which is a strength of California.

However, Cal is not very big and struggles in the post. They will also be down a starter as 6-7 forward Omondi Amoke has been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. If the Cards take advantage of their size and play any defense, I believe they win this game.

Second Round
Duke Blue Devils (1)

Barring the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history, the Cards would face the universally hated Duke Blue Devils. Duke, 29-5 and ranked third in the country, is led by their trio of Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, and Jon Scheyer, all of whom average over 17 points per game. The Dukies won a share of the ACC regular season, but won the conference tournament. While they are very good, particularly on the defensive end, they do have some areas the Cards could exploit.

First, Duke is not the most athletic team. While I would not characterize them as slow, I would say they would not be on the top level in terms of athletic teams the Cards have faced. Second, Duke does not have a dominating big man. Brian Zoubek is big at 7-1 and 260 lbs, but he is not very athletic. He averages 5.3 points per game and 7.3 rebounds per game. He is definitely someone the Cards’ big men, Samardo Samuels and Terrence Jennings, could beat up and down the floor and defend one on one.

Duke also does not have much depth and their starters have logged a lot of minutes this year. The Cards would definitely press them and take advantage of the lack of depth. The Cards struggle with small, quick teams, but Duke does not fit into that category and while they are very good, it’s not the worst match-up for Louisville.

Sweet Sixteen
Purdue (4)

In my opinion, the Boilermakers will not make it this far. They have looked extremely marginal, especially on the offensive end, after the loss of Robbie Hummel. They scored 11 points in the first half against a very mediocre Minnesota team in the Big Ten Tournament last week. If they were to make it this far, I would bet all my money on Louisville. Purdue is not highly athletic and quite frankly, if they had to play without Hummel the entire season, they would not make the field of 65.

Texas A&M (5)

This is a very dangerous team. Coached by Mark Turgeon, the Aggies are 23-9 and finished 11-5 in the Big XII, good for a second place finish. They play mostly man-to-man defense and rely heavily on their guard play. While they lost their second leading scorer, Derrick Roland, to a season ending injury back in December, the Aggies have regrouped and are playing well.

However, A&M turns the ball over frequently. For the season, they barely have more assists than turnovers. They also do not have a very deep bench and seem to have a large drop-off when forced to go to their bench for extended minutes. The Cards could utilize their pressure to force the Aggies into turnovers, as well as wear them down.

Siena Saints (13)

Fran McCaffrey brings back nearly his entire team which almost took out the Cards in the second round last year. This is an experienced, well coached team, that executes very well and plays solid defense as they have held twelve opponents to under 60 points. Only twice have they allowed a team to score 80 points. In a year which their are many flawed teams, an experienced team can make a run.

The more I look at it, the more I think the Saints could be a bad match-up for the Cards. They took a better Louisville team down to the wire last year in front of a pro-Louisville crowd in Dayton. Siena would no doubt love another shot at the team that eliminated them last year.

Elite Eight
Villanova Wildcats (2)

It is well established I love Jay Wright and he has himself a good squad this year. However, the Wildcats have limped into the tournament having lost five of their last seven games. The strength of their squad is guard play, led by Scottie Reynolds. The Cards lost to them earlier this year after having a 17 point lead in the first half. They are a guard heavy team, which could give the Cards fits.

However, ‘Nova does not have much balance offensively and the Cards definitely have an edge in the paint. These two teams are very familiar with each other and when teams who know each other face off in the tournament, a close game usually follows.

Baylor Bears (3)

The Bears possess one of the most dynamic players in the country in LaceDarius Dunn, a 6-4 junior guard. He scores just under 20 points per game and shoots 42% from deep. His backcout mate, guard Tweety Carter, also shoots over 40% from deep and averages over 6 assists per game. In the paint, they have Ekpe Udoh, the Big XII’s single season leader in blocked shots. Their three frontcourt players check in at 7-0, 6-10, and 6-10. This is a very good squad that likes to get up and down the floor. They do turn the ball over and do not have many ball handlers, outside of Carter.