Preview (5) Louisville at Notre Dame: Bobby E’s Breakdown

Date: Thursday, February 12th
Time: 7:04 p.m. EST
Site: Joyce Center (11,418) in Notre Dame, Indiana.
Series History: UofL leads 15-8 (10-1 in L’ville, 4-4 @South Bend, 1-3 neutral)
Last Meeting: UofL 87, Notre Dame 73 in OT (Jan. 12, 2009 in Freedom Hall)
National Rankings: UL No. 5 AP, 7 ESPN/USA Today (Feb. 9)
Officials: Mike Kitts, Reggie Greenwood, J.D. Collins

Talk about two teams going in opposite directions… Coming into their last meeting, the Irish were ranked 13th in the country and were 3-1 in BIG EAST play. The Cardinals had just snuck back into the Top 25 at 23rd, and were just three games removed from a bad home loss to UNLV. Louisville won that matchup 87-73, their fourth strait of a streak that would eventually reach nine. Louisville has won 10 of 11 overall since that UNLV loss. For Notre Dame, they haven’t seen the win column since. The Irish have lost seven in a row and now sit at 12-10 overall, 3-7 in BIG EAST play.

Louisville looked less than impressive, and nothing like a Top 5, or even a Top 25 team against UConn, and struggled through the first 36 minutes Sunday at St. John’s. Defense willed the Cardinals to a 60-47 victory, despite Twill scoring only three points and Samardo Samuels, who had dominated the first half, leaving the game with two missing teeth courtesy of a Johnnie’s elbow. Louisville shot only 38.5 percent from the field (20-for-52), including 3-for-17 from 3-point range; they’re going to have to do a WHOLE lot better than that to defeat the sharpshooting Irish, regardless of how bad Notre Dame has been playing lately.

Terrence Williams will look to rebound from his three point performance in the win Sunday. Twill continues to climb the U of L career charts. Williams, 25th in career scoring at U of L with 1,386 points, needs 14 points to reach 1,400 for his career and 27 points to reach No. 24 Francisco Garcia (1,413 pts., 2002-05). He is fifth in career three-point goals (167), seventh in career assists at U of L (457) and sixth in career steals (173).

Notre Dame’s seven game skid includes the end of what was the Nation’s longest home winning streak. Connecticut beat the Irish 69-61 thus snapping their 45-game home winning streak. The downward spiral continued from there as Notre Dame lost their next game, also at home, to Marquette. Their last contest was an embarrasing 26 point shelacking at the hands of the UCLA Bruins, the last of a three game road trip.

Luke Harangody still leads the way for the Irish, averaging 24.2 points and 12.6 rebounds a game. Mike Brey basically rotates six players in and out, with Junior Guard Jonathan Peoples seeing increased minutes as of late. Along with Harangody and Peoples, its Kyle McAlarney, Tory Jackson, Ryan Ayers, Luke Zeller and Zach Hillesland. Both McAlarney (44.7) and Ayers (41.1) are deadly from beyond the arc, and with the inside game of Harangody, it should work well for the Irish; but that sure hasn’t been the case this year.

Harangody saw his streak of 52 consecutive games of scoring in double figures end when he scored only five points against UCLA, leaving the game for good with 10:34 to play. Harangody also grabbed only one rebound after having double-figure rebounds in 14 consecutive games. The 26 point loss was the worst by Notre Dame during Mike Brey’s tenure at the school, and their 7 game losing streak is the longest since the 1992-1993 season. Brey says he’s not sure who will start against Louisville. He benched his point guard, Tory Jackson, for the UCLA game and could have other changes for the Feb. 12 game against Louisville.

“I’m not sure who we’re starting and I’m not sure who our rotation will be,” Brey said after the UCLA loss. “We’ll figure that out in practice the next couple days. All spots open, baby. It’s like tryouts. We’ll have tryouts. I think that’s the atmosphere we need to be in. We’ll keep searching for the right combo.”

The BIG EAST leader in three-point goals and assists-to-turnovers ratio, Notre Dame ranks among the top 10 nationally in assists to turnovers ratio (1.82, first in the NCAA), turnovers per game (9.8, second), assists per game (17.9, sixth), three-point field goals per game (9.0, 9th) and three-point field goal percentage (.397, tenth).

Bobby E’s Gamebreaker: SHOT SELECTION/FIELD GOAL PERCENTAGE!!!

Louisville is going to have to take good shots, and when that happens your field goal success rate is usually positively effected by that. The Cards can’t expect to shoot under 40 % in the Joyce Center and come away victorious. If Jerry Smith can continue to show his sweet stroke, and McGee, Knowles and the other guards are locked in, Louisville should handle the Irish; if not, it could be the end of Notre Dame’s freefall.

The game will be televised nationally on ESPN with Brent Musburger (play-by-play) Bob Knight and Digger Phelps  (color) calling the action. Ms.Piggy will be roaming the sidelines.  You can also hear the game broadcast on WHAS (840 AM) by Paul Rogers (play-by-play) and Bob Valvano (color) or on SIRIUS satellite ch. 123.