The Pinkie Previews: Villanova (14-1, 3-0) at Louisville (12-4, 3-0)

Villanova Wildcats @ Louisville Cardinals
Freedom Hall Louisville, KY
Monday January 11, 2010
Time: 7:03 pm EST
T.V.: ESPN
Radio: WHAS 840 AM as well as ISP/Westwood One Radio

The University of Louisville Men’s Basketball team will battle the Villanova Wildcats tonight in a match-up of conference unbeatens.  The game has been declared a “White Out” with all Cardinal fans encouraged to wear white for the game.  The game will be shown in prime time on ESPN at 7:00 as part of Big Monday.  

It will be an incredibly tough challenge for the Cards as Villanova is arguably the second toughest opponent (Kentucky being first)  the Cards will face this year.  Louisville is playing some of its best basketball lately and is coming off a 75-68 victory against St. Johns this past Saturday.  The Cards have won seven of their last eight contests. 

Villanova, like Louisville, is coming off of short rest.  The Wildcats barely hung on this past Saturday with a 78-76 victory at home against Marquette.  It was the second time Villanova has defeated Marquette in the past week as they snuck out another two point victory in Milwaukee on January 2nd. 

‘Nova is 14-1 on the season with their only loss coming at the hands of Temple on December 13th. Villanova and Louisville are two of the three unbeaten teams in Big East play.  Pittsburgh is also undefeated at 3-0. 

Louisville and Villanova have matched up 14 times in program history with the Cards leading the overall series 8-6.  Louisville is 2-1 on their home floor and 2-4 on the road.  On a netural site, the Cards hold a 4-1 advantage. 

Meet the Wildcats

Villanova is flat out impressive in just about every area of the game.  The strengths of their team are their offensive play and their depth.  The ‘Cats have five McDonald’s All-Americans on their roster and four of their five starters average double figures with the other starter averaging 9.2 ppg. 

As I mentioned, ‘Nova is outstanding on the offensive end.  They rank ninth nationally in scoring offense with an average of 84.3 ppg.  The Wildcats have scored 70+ points in 13 of its 15 games this season including eight games of 80+ points and five over 90.  During their current five-game winning streak Villanova is shooting 53-percent from the field and 41.3-percent from behind the arc.  Nova has several guys on their team that can bomb it from deep as five different players have hit 10+ three’s this season.  It will be incredibly tough for Louisville to slow this team down.

Not only are the Villanova starting five nearly impossible to stop, but their bench play has been good as well. The Wildcat bench has outscored their opponents bench in 12 of 15 contests this season.  In their three Big East games, they have produced 85 points for an average of 28.3 points per game.  The Cats have nine different players that have started at least one game this season and on 12 times a bench player has scored in double figures. 

As if extraordinary offense and bench play aren’t enough, Villanova is among the nation’s elite in rebounding.  The Wildcats are out-rebounding opponents by a +7.7 margin.  This is good for 12th nationally.  Louisville is ranked 25th in rebounding with a +7.5 average.  It’s going to be a battle on the boards that Louisville must win. 

If there is a downfall to this Villanova team it is on the defensive side.  In their last three games, ‘Nova is allowing opponents to score 73.3 ppg. and they have allowed their last three opponents to shoot 38-percent from downtown.  On Saturday, Marquette was able to hang 57 points on the Wildcats in the second half.  Villanova will score a lot of points but will also give a lot up.  I expect this match-up to be a high scoring affair that comes down to who can hit the outside shot. 

Nova Statistics

 Points per game- 83.7 ppg  (9th nationally)
Opponents points per game-69.2 ppg
Field Goal %- 46.4%
Opponent Field Goal %- 39.9%
3-pt Field Goal %- 37.6%
Opponent 3-pt %- 34.8%
3-pt’s made per game- 8.2
Free Throw %- 76.3% (11th nationally)
Rebounds per game- 40.5
Rebound Margin- +7.7 (12th nationally)
Assists per game- 15.0
Turnovers per game- 13.1
Turnover’s Forced- 15.9
Turnover Margin- +2.9
Assist/Turnover Ratio- 1.1
Steals per game- 8.1
Blocks per game- 3.5

Key Players

There are so many talented players on this Villanova team that every one of their guys can be a major factor in this game.  As I mentioned earlier, four of Nova’s five starters average double figures.  They are lead by senior guard Scottie Reynolds with 17.7 ppg.  Others that average double figures are junior guard Corey Fisher (12.9 ppg), senior guard Reggie Redding (12.4 ppg), and junior forward Antonio Pena (12.0 ppg).  The other starter, junior guard Corey Stokes, is averaging 9.2 ppg.  Sophomore forward Taylor King also averages double figures with 10.7 ppg off the bench. 

Reynolds, Stokes, King, and Fisher are the Wildcats biggest threats from downtown.  Each one of these kids shoot better than 35-percent from distance with King being their most consistent threat, shooting shooting 46-percent. 

Entering the season there was concern over who would replace ’Nova’s All Big East performer on the inside in Dante Cunningham. Antonio Pena has done more than answer the bell. He is the Wildcats’ leading rebounder, pulling down 8.1 boards per game.  Both Redding and King also average better than 6 .4 rebounds per game. 

Fisher is leading Villanova in assists with 67 dimes on the year compared to just 27 turnovers.  That’s good for 4.5 assist per game average and an impressive 2.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.  He is excellent at getting their plethora of shooters good looks.

The heart and soul of the Villanova attack is Reynolds.  He was named the 2009 NCAA East Regional MVP in the NCAA tournament last year and was named to the All Big East Honorable Mention team.  This season, Reynolds was named as a preseason All Big East First Team selection, as well as one of 30 finalists for the Wooden Award.  His is being mentioned as an All-American Candidate. 

Reynolds is their go-to, do-it-all type of player.  Not only does he lead the team in scoring, he is also second on the team in assists.  On the season he is shooting 48-percent from the field and 39-percent from deep.  Over his last seven games, Reynolds is averaging 21.9 ppg and connecting on 57-percent from the field, including 49-percent from deep.  

He is very versatile with the ball in his hands because he can take his man on the dribble and finish and shoot it from outside. He is effective at shooting off of the bounce or coming off a screen.  Reynolds also creates havoc on defense and is tied for the team lead in steals with 23.  Fisher is the other player who shares the top spot in steals. 

One negative thing that the Cards need to exploit about Reynolds is his turnovers.  He is prone to make mistakes and give the ball away.  He is by far the team leader in turnovers, giving up the ball 44 times on the season. I believe that if Louisville can generate enough pressure on this kid, he will try to force things and make mistakes.  Louisville must take advantage of this. 

Keys to Victory

1) Slow down the Villanova offense.  I know this task might seem impossible with the way the Wildcats can score, but the Cards must do their best to try to slow down Nova’s attack.  This means that the Louisville guards must be quick on the press and force the ‘Nova guards to make mistakes.  The Cats start four guards that can all handle the ball and will be tough to press, but Louisville must match their quickness and not let them run up and down the court.  The Cards need to do a good job in their traps and force Nova to turn the ball over.

2) Guard the perimeter.  Villanova is arguably the best three-point shooting team the Cards will face all season.  They have so many weapons, it’s unreal.  Louisville needs to get out on the shooters quickly from their zone and not let the Cats get open looks.  If Louisville allows Villanova to bomb away from deep, the Cards will lose.

3) Bench play will be key.  As I said earlier, Villanova is a very deep team with big time players on their bench.  Louisville’s role players such as Siva, Buckles, Kuric, Jennings, and Knowles have to play at their best.  Nova relies on their bench outscoring their opponents bench, so the Card reserves need to come out and send a message.  If Louisville can somehow get an advantage from bench play, they should put themselves in a position to win. 

4) Rebound the basketball.  Despite ‘Nova’s heavy reliance on guards, they still rebound the basketball well. The Cards need to take advantage of their size underneath and win the battle of the boards. They have to limit Nova’s second and third chance opportunities, and give themselves more chances on the offensive end.  ‘Nova has too many scoring threats to allow them multiple chances. If you do, they will convert.

5) Score, score, and score some more!  Louisville has to knock down their shots and put up some points.  ‘Nova will give the Cards some good looks and it’s up to Sosa, Smith, Delk, Knowles, and Marra to knock them down.  The Cards should also have a size advantage on the inside, so Samuels needs to convert around the rim.  If Louisville hits their shots, they will be in the game at the end.  If they have an off night, they will get blown out of Freedom Hall.  It’s that simple.  This game will be a shootout. So, the Cards need the offense to come through and outscore Jay Wright’s Wildcats. 

Basically, beat Villanova at their own game.