2009: Kragthorpe’s Last Stand?

As we roll into summer we get closer and closer to the start of football season. The Louisville football program faces a challenging and pivotal season in 2009. With a tough schedule and unproven talent, head coach Steve Kragthorpe must not only try to put a competitive team on the field, he must do so with his job status very much in jeopardy. I am going to go through some scenarios in which I believe will determine whether or not Krags stays or is let go. Let’s take a look at the 2009 schedule:

9/05/09 vs Indiana State
9/19/09 at Kentucky
9/26/09 at Utah
10/02/09 vs Pittsburgh
10/10/09 vs Southern Mississippi
10/17/09 at Connecticut
10/24/09 at Cincinnati
10/31/09 vs Arkansas State
11/07/09 at West Virginia
11/14/09 vs Syracuse
11/21/09 at South Florida
11/27/09 vs Rutgers

Just looking at the schedule right now, I count two wins, six losses and four TBD. The two wins are obviously Indiana St. and Arkansas St., both schools I was not aware had football programs. The six losses are Utah, Pitt, Cincinnati, West Virginia, South Florida, and Rutgers. That leaves the four TBD games, and those are Kentucky, Southern Mississippi, Connecticut, and Syracuse.

To be clear, I am not saying those four games are toss ups and the teams are evenly matched. What I am saying is, at this point, those four teams do not appear to be strong enough to overwhelm Louisville like the games I have marked as losses. Here are the scenarios:

3 or fewer wins - If Krags goes 3-9, that will put him at a 14-22 in three years at Louisville and with that record he cannot be brought back for a fourth year. Looking at Louisville’s team and schedule, three wins could be a stretch. That is quite sad for a program who did not go on probation and is only three years removed from winning the FedEx Orange Bowl. Therefore, three wins or less, HE’S GONE.

4 wins, several blow out losses - Here’s where it gets interesting. Looking at the schedule, four wins means Krags has to win at least two games against teams he should not beat. However, if he does that, but also gets completely blown out of the water in other games, I do not see how that could be viewed as adequate enough progress to retain him. Four wins with several blow outs, HE’S GONE.

4 wins, several close losses- This is where I think the borderline stands. If Krags ends up 4-8, as I mentioned earlier, he will have won two games he was not supposed to win. Those wins, coupled with several close losses against teams they were supposed to lose to, I think a reasonable person can take that as progress and make a case for him returning. However, a case for retaining Krags at 4 wins can be made only if Louisville has a good recruiting class for 2010.

Currently, coach Kragthorpe has received 5 commitments for the class of 2010. This is a big deal because the Louisville program has never had this many football commitments this early. In previous years, the staffs at Louisville have taken the philosophy of closing late which resulted in securing commitments later in the process.

This year, perhaps because he knows he needs to score a good recruiting class to bolster his job status, Krags has gone out and closed on kids early. As a Louisville fan, it is exciting because it appears kids are buying into the message coach Kragthorpe and his staff are selling. While nailing down a good 2010 recruiting class is important, it becomes much bigger if Kragthorpe can land Tim Patterson and Stephan Robinson, two highly touted players from Louisville Central.

Receiver Stephan Robinson

Patterson, a linebacker and #1 football recruit in Kentucky, is a Louisville fan. Kragthorpe needs to get him. Landing him can only help in landing his teammate, receiver Stephan Robinson, who is also heavily interested in Louisville. Securing commitments from these two will be huge for Krags when the time comes to determine whether or not he’s the guy for the job at Louisville. Therefore, 4 wins with several close losses and a good recruiting class, HE STAYS.

Linebacker Tim Patterson and perhaps the key recruit for Kragthorpe

5 wins- This one is easy. Louisville won five games last season with a more experienced and talented group. If Krags pulls out five wins in 2009, that alone signifies progress and therefore, HE STAYS.

Ultimately, at the end of the 2009 season, if the decision is made to retain Kragthorpe, then another decision must be made as well: You must extend his contract. For the most part, contract extensions are meaningless, especially since coaches (Bobby Petrino) will sign them, then break them at will (Bobby Petrino). There are also many examples of schools signing coaches to extension only to fire the coach months later.

The benefit of extending Kragthorpe, if he’s retained after 2009, is that he can go into a recruit’s home and show the player he will be the coach for x amount of time. It does Kragthorpe and the Louisville program no good, to keep Krags, but working on the remaining two years left on his contract. Other schools can then come in and say, Kragthorpe only has two years left so he won’t be there for your time at Louisville. Negative recruiting is used quite frequently and a coach’s job status is always easy material. If Kragthorpe is retained, he must be extended as well.

Coaches who practice negative recruiting need to be sent this shirt

Hopefully, this article will spark debate amongst Louisville fans regarding the future of our football program. However, if not, then it is at least an excuse to post my favorite Kragthorpe photog ever.

Cracks me up every time