UK-UofL: Top Five Things to Watch

Well, it’s about that time. You know it by the increased chatter between Cards and ‘Cats fans at work. You know it by the fact that local sports radio is entirely ignoring pretty much any other topic. You know it by the way that Rick Pitino and John Calipari are talking to the media.

Saturday’s Dream Game just feels like the climax of this year’s non-conference slate for both teams. UK has passed its share of tests against some strong opponents, and some not so strong ones. UofL had some early struggles, but has put together its most solid stretch of play over the past five games leading up to this one.

Even though both teams have had newsworthy seasons thus far, their non-conference schedules will both be defined by what happens on Saturday.

A UK win is a perfect cap to a perfect start. A UK loss makes that excellent start a lot less significant.

A UofL win makes those three early losses nothing but a footnote, Rick Pitino will have his team where he wants it. A UofL loss leaves the Cards without a signature win and facing a lot of work to do in Big East play to make the Tournament.

Obviously, I could list 100 things that we will be closely watching, but let’s take at the five most important things to keep an eye on in Rupp on Saturday.

5 – Ricky P in Rupp

Once John Calipari was hired and the whole Karen Sypher thing broke, Rick Pitino figured to face the most hostile away atmosphere on January 2, 2009 he had encountered since coaching his first game in Rupp as UofL head coach. That hasn’t changed.

As a UK fan, I am frightened by the prospect of what ‘Cats fans might do or say filled with the confidence of a 14-0 start and armed with the scandal that Pitino has faced. John Calipari feels the same way, encouraging UK fans to “make it about the players” and “show class” against Louisville.

In an ideal world, UK sets the Rupp attendance record, doesn’t let a single UofL fan in (unless Eric Wood shows up in a John Wall jersey), and keeps it classy on the way to a big ‘Cats win.  Unfortunately, I don’t think UK fans are going to be able to resist going after Pitino.

4 – Foul Trouble

The most likely candidates for foul trouble in any game are the big men. This game is no different. In fact, with the way that the big guys for UK and UofL play, foul trouble is probably ever more of a likelihood for them.

According to Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, DeMarcus Cousins (third) and Samardo Samuels (fifth) are among the top five players in the nation at drawing fouls. They both know how to get in positions where their defender is forced to foul. Add to that the fact that DeMarcus Cousins (and front court mate Daniel Orton) is very susceptible to fouling, committing 7.4 fouls per 40 minutes, and you can pretty much be sure of the fact that someone is going to miss time with fouls.

However, it’s not foul trouble in the post that I am most worried about as a UK fan. It’s backcourt foul trouble. I would take both John Wall and Eric Bledsoe over any of UofL’s four main guards (Smith, Knowles, Siva, and Sosa), but UofL has four guys to throw at UK’s two. If John Wall gets tired by the intensity of a bunch of fresh players and fouls, UK would be in trouble, because UK is not even close to the same team without John Wall.

However, news is circulating today that Peyton Siva could miss tomorrow’s game with a stomach flu, meaning that we may never get the chance to see the Wall-Siva matchup that so many have talked about.

3 – Rebounding

Offensive rebounding is a major strength for both UK and UofL. Both rank in the top ten nationally in offensive rebounding rate (UK-first, UofL-ninth). Both teams are accustomed to rebounding well over 40% of their own misses on the offensive end. Based on that, you would think there would be some extended possessions on both sides of the floor.

However, I wouldn’t be telling the full story if I didn’t mention defensive rebounding as well. UK is an above average defensive rebounding team (62nd in the country); UofL is a decidedly average offensive rebounding team (175th in the country).

If UK holds its own on the defensive boards and dominates the offensive boards as they have to this point in the season, it could be a very long day for the Cards tomorrow.

2 – Three Point Shooting

Quite frankly, the only way I think UofL can win tomorrow is by outshooting UK significantly from three point range.

If UofL continues to hit at their current rate of 32.1%, UK is going to get way too many opportunities in transition, especially when you consider that almost 40% of UofL’s field goal attempts on the season have been threes. Also, UK has forced its opponents into shooting a very high volume of three pointers to this point in the season, which will multiply this further, as will the Cards lack of penetration from the wing positions.

Even though UK has been one of the best three point shooting teams in the nation (42.2%), you have to figure that Rick Pitino is going to take the same approach as most UK opponents to this point in the year: make UK hit the outside shot. Even though UK has shot well, this game is going to be just a bit different, so it’s no guarantee that UK’s shooters won’t be a bit tight.

1 – Pitino vs. Cal

For both Rick Pitino and John Calipari, this is the most significant game of this regular season. They both want it BADLY.

Many will focus their attention on the less that affectionate personal relationship between the two coaches, but I’m more much interested in the impact that relationship will have on the way that this game is coached. Cal and Pitino are both going to be pulling out all the stops to win this game. Neither will be afraid to alter his traditional coaching style to get a win.

I don’t think we’ll be too surprised by the way Cal and his team attack UofL. They will show some full court pressure and mix in some occasional zone, but for the most part, they will be in man. On offense, Cal is not going to be shy about beating the ball inside, particularly when Jared Swopshire is trying to guard Patrick Patterson. The ‘Cats are also going to run anytime the opportunity is there, whether its off of a turnover, a rebound, or broken full court pressure.

However, I’m really not sure what to expect out of Pitino. UofL has shown more man to man than they have at any point in recent years, but you have to believe UofL will show more of that extended 2-3 zone. Also, I believe that Pitino will want to play a much slower game than he normally plays.

My big question, though, is just how much Rick Pitino will try to press UK. This week, Pitino said that John Wall was possibly the first “unpressable” guard he had ever played against, even though much of that can be chalked up as token Ricky P hyperbole.

The Cards are going to show some press, I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. However, I don’t know if it will be the Black or White press. I do think we can be sure that Pitino will force Eric Bledsoe or whatever secondary ball handler is on the floor to handle the ball a lot. Bledsoe is reportedly ready to start tomorrow, but a healthy Bledsoe is key.

Bledsoe has had a propensity to try to do way too much this year, and Pitino will want to test both his ankle and his decision making. If I had to pick one player about whom I would say “if he has a good game, UK will win”, I would pick Bledsoe. I’m not saying UK can’t win if he doesn’t play well, but if he plays within himself, hits some outside shots, and can provide some rest for John Wall, I think UK wins comfortably.

My Prediction

I just have a feeling that UofL is going to come out playing and shooting well, much like Indiana did a few Saturdays ago. However, I think the ‘Cats will weather the storm and grab a lead for good early in the second half. They will lead by five to seven points most of the second half, make a few clutch free throws at the end, and give UK a victory.

Final: UK 73 – UofL 65