The Pinkie Previews South Carolina at Kentucky: Wink’s Breakdown

Date: Saturday, January 31st
Time: 3:00 p.m. EST
Site: Rupp Arena (23,500) in Lexington, KY
Series History: UK leads 41-7
Last Meeting: UK 71, South Carolina 63 (March 5, 2008 at Columbia)
National Rankings: UK No. 24 ESPN/USA Today (Jan. 26)

The state of Kentucky is familiar with South Carolina’s new head basketball coach, Darrin Horn. Horn was a standout at Tates Creek High School, where he led them to a runner-up finish in the 1991 State Tournament. He then went on to star at Western Kentucky, became an assistant under Tom Crean at Marquette, took the head job at Western in 2003 and last April replaced Dave Odom “The Professor” as the new head coach in Columbia.

Horn’s last game at Western was a loss to UCLA in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. He finished his career in Bowling Green with a 111-48 record.

He is picking up at Carolina right where he left off. The Gamecocks enter Saturday’s contest at Rupp Arena with a 15-4 overall record, including a 4-2 mark in SEC play. They are riding a three-game league winning streak, which is their longest streak since January of 2007.

Horn knew one thing for sure when he took the job at South Carolina and that was that he had a pretty good floor general. Junior Devan Downey (5-9, guard), who is in his second season at Carolina after transferring from Cincy, leads four Gamecocks averaging double figures with 19.6 points per game. On December 30 against Clemson he finished with a career-high 37. He has led the Gamecocks in scoring 16 times this season, including 18 in Carolina’s most recent win over Vandy. He ranks second in the SEC in scoring (not David Huertas who I said was second in scoring entering the Ole Miss game).  But, he doesn’t just score, he also leads the team with 4.3 assists and 3.0 steals per outing.  His three steals lead the league per game and is good for fifth in the country. He is shooting 33-percent from beyond the arc.

Senior Zam Fredrick (6-0, guard) adds 15.6 points and 2.9 rebounds for the Gamecocks and ranks second on the team in scoring. Frederick has connected on 33 three-pointers this season and is shooting 34-percent from distance. He is best recognized for his his buzzer-beater lay-up that propelled South Carolina to victory over Florida on Jan. 21. Still can’t figure out why Billy Donovan didn’t have all of his guys back and had them at the free throw line.

Junior Evaldis Baniulis (6-7, forward) joins Frederick and Downey as the Gamecocks’ best three-point threats. He leads the team with 35 threes made and is shooting an impressive 53-percent from deep. 72-percent of his field goals come from behind the arc so it is imperative to get a hand in his face and stay on him when Downey penetrates. Baniulis was key in their win over Florida as he tallied 12 points, shooting 4-of-7 from beyond the arc.

Sophomore big man Sam Muldrow (6-9, forward) is also a significant part of the Carolina game plan. Muldrow tallied eight points, while collecting four rebounds against Vandy, in his third strait start. He is averaging 5.0 points and 3.5 rebounds in just six games played. He missed non-conference play with academic issues and an injured elbow.

Junior Dominique Archie (6-7, forward) and sophomore Mike Holmes (6-7, center) have been solid in league play for Darrin Horn as well. Archie provides 11.5 points-per-game this season, while he adds 12.2 per SEC contest. He has scored in double figures in all but six games this year. In their win against Vandy he finished with 17.

Holmes has led the Gamecocks in rebounding all season and has been a constant offensive threat to opposing teams. Holmes averages 11.0 points and 8.1 rebounds. He has tallied six double-digit rebounding games this season.

The Gamecocks are very deep as they have nine guys averaging over 15 minutes per game, so keep an eye on their bench. Specifically, sophomore Austin Steed (6-8, forward), who is coming off a five-point, seven-rebound performance against Vandy and junior Brandis Raley-Ross (6-2, guard), who is averaging 6.8 points on the season and finished with 12 points in their most recent win against the Commodores.

The main question in this game is how will Kentucky respond to their first setback in SEC play? A lot of their shortfalls against Ole Miss are strengths for this South Carolina team. Downey likes to get in the lane and he often comes off of ball screens to do so. Can Kentucky contain Downey and keep him from scoring or kicking it out to Baniulis or Frederick for three?

Also, Kentucky was receiving praises all across the country for their defense. Then they allowed a struggling Ole Miss team to put up 85. How will they handle a South Carolina team who is averaging 79.9 points-per-game, which is good for second in the SEC?

This Gamecock squad also is a pretty good rebounding team and can throw number of fresh guys in there to get boards. Can the Cats keep them off the offensive glass?

It will also be interesting to see how Billy Gillispie disperses the minutes. Will Michael Porter and Ramon Harris see more minutes than they did on Tuesday or will Deandre Liggins and Darius Miller continue to get more ticks?

There are a lot of questions and it will be interesting to see how the Cats will respond. Expect South Carolina to zone Kentucky after watching them do a lot of standing around against Ole Miss. I don’t care what Gillispie says, it is absolutely imperative for Jodie Meeks to get off shots and to get off good shots. If they are struggling to get Meeks the ball he needs to handle it more like he did in games before the Ole Miss debacle. Run him off of ball screens and force defenders to decide between coming out on him or leaving Patrick Patterson or Perry Stevenson with an open lane to the basket.

Defensively and offensively the Cats must learn from their performance on Tuesday if they expect to beat a surging South Carolina team. Even if it is at Rupp. Expect Kentucky to come out with a purpose, but I think this will be a game that comes down to the final minutes. Remember, Carolina is looking to pull even with the Cats in the SEC East. Still, I think Patterson and Meeks are too much for the Gamecocks.

Cats by 5.

Football Sidenote -  According to Jody Demling of the Courier-Journal the Cats landed RB Josh Morgan, of Pasadena Community College. The 5-foot-10, 210-pound Morgan has been timed in 4.4 seconds in the 40-yard dash and ran 158 times for 1,002 yards and six touchdowns for the Lancers. He also caught 34 passes for 342 yards and two more TDs. He averaged 6.5 yards a carry and 91.4 yards a game. To read more on Morgan, click here.