The Pinkie Previews Mississippi State at Kentucky: Wink’s Breakdown

Date: Tuesday, February 3rd
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Site: Rupp Arena (23,500) in Lexington, KY
Series History: UK leads 84-19 (43-4 in Lexington, 30-12 @Starkville, 11-3 neutral)
Last Meeting: Mississippi State 69, Kentucky 64 (1/15/08 in Starkville)
National Rankings: None

On Tuesday the Cats look to end two two-game skids, as they host the Mississippi State Bulldogs at Rupp Arena.  They are on a much publicized two-game slide in SEC play but they also are also looking to end a two-game skid against the Bulldogs. MSU beat Kentucky 69-64 last season in Starkville and in 2007 they beat the Cats 84-82 in the SEC Tournament. Mississippi State has not won at Rupp since 1995.

The Bulldogs enter the UK game with a 14-7 record and they are 4-2 in conference.

In Kentucky’s last two losses the lack of defensive rebounding has been a consistent problem. They gave up 18 offensive rebounds against a South Carolina team that ranks near the bottom of the SEC in rebounding and 14 against an inexperienced Ole Miss team. Kentucky must turn the corner and keep Mississippi State off of the offensive glass. The Bulldogs are one of only two teams in the SEC that is being out-rebounded on the season. Who is the other team? South Carolina. Perry Stevenson has got to quit standing around or the Cats will be out-rebounded by a team that should not do so.

The key to the Mississippi State rebounding attack is junior Jarvis Varnado (6-9, center). UK fans remember Varnado from last year as he finished with a triple-double that included 10 blocked shots in the 69-64 victory over the Wildcats. He was the leading shot blocker in the nation a year ago with 4.6 per game and he is doing the same this year with 4.7. He already has 98 blocks on the year, which is more than Stevenson and Patrick Patterson have combined (95). Remember that Stevenson and Patterson are second and third in the SEC in blocked shots. He already has 322 blocks for his career, which means he’s 213 shy of tying Wojciech Mydra of Louisiana-Monroe’s (1998-2002) career mark of 535. To reach 535, he needs to average about 5.1 blocks an outing.

Varnado has always been a great shot blocker but this season, with the departures of Jamont Gordon and Charles Rhodes, he has become a much greater focus on the offensive end. He is second on the team in scoring with 12.7 points-per-game and he is shooting 62-percent from the field. Last season against the Cats his only real weakness was his struggles at the line. He finished 4-for-10 in the win over Kentucky and hovered around 50-percent in his first two seasons. This year he has increased his free throw percentage to 67-percent.  He is also second in the conference with 9.5 rebounds.

Twelve games ago, after their loss to a Charlotte team that is really struggling, Rick Stansbury decided to surround Varnado with four guards. Since that move the Bulldogs are 9-3. Despite their success they have been out-rebounded in ten of those 12 games. A stat that Kentucky needs to take advantage of.

With the four guards and Varnado underneath it really opens up the Bulldog offense and allows them the opportunity to drive and kick. In this set they look for the three-ball over and over, as all of the MSU guards have free reign to unload at any time. Their best shooter and scorer is sophomore Ravern Johnson (6-7, guard). Johnson is leading the team in scoring with 12.8 points and has scored in double figures in all but eight games this year. In his last eight games he is averaging 15.3 points. He has also connected on a team-leading 53 three-pointers while shooting 48-percent from deep.

Junior Barry Stewart (6-2, guard) is also averaging double-figures for the Bulldogs with 10.2 per game. Stewart has been a double-figure scorer for MSU since his freshman year when he averaged 9.8 points. He is shooting 35-percent from deep and has connected on 167 threes in his career, which is good for fourth all-time in MSU history.

Freshman Dee Bost (6-2, guard) and sophomore Phil Turner (6-3, guard) will also contribute for the Dawgs. Bost is a pure point guard who is third in the conference in assists with 4.4 per game. He scores for MSU as well with 9.8 points-per-game but sometimes struggles from the field as he is shooting only 34-percent. Turner only averaged 4.3 points in his first nine games but has turned it on since and has finished in double figures in seven of the last 12 games. He is shooting 38-percent from beyond the arc.

I know it sounds like a broken record but for the Cats to win this game they have to keep the guards out of the lane and defensive rebound with a purpose. Stevenson has got to step up and put a body on someone after the Cats make a stop. When teams consistently get offensive putbacks, it takes the winds out of the sails defensively and eventually leads to easy baskets. The Cats must win the battle on the glass and prove their toughness against a team that surrounds one true rebounder with four guards.