The Pinkie Previews: Kentucky at Louisville (Cats Perspective)

After weeks of previewing everything from quarterbacks to defensive lines to special teams, the day of reckoning is upon us.

Cats vs. Cards. Blue vs. Red. Joker vs. Strong. Hartline vs. Froman?

That is right. On Saturday at 3:30 p.m., the University of Kentucky and the University of Louisville will take to the gridiron of the remodeled Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium and kick off the 2010 season.

This is more than a rivalry game. Sure, it’s important for fans to have bragging rights. But, it is imperative for both of these teams to get off to a good start.

UK enters Saturday with a three-game winning streak over the Cardinals. If they avoid turnovers, don’t allow the big play on defense and keep everyone healthy, they should walk out of the Pizza Oven with the Governor’s Cup trophy for the fourth consecutive season.

When it was announced that Mike Hartline would be the starting quarterback on opening day, there were a lot of disappointed Big Blue fans. But, Hartline doesn’t have to throw the ball 80 yards down the field for Kentucky to beat Louisville. He needs to do what he does, and that is manage the football game. Allow the running game to get going and then take advantage and hit open receivers. That is it.

The Cardinal defense is young, small and inexperienced. Kentucky has to take advantage of this. Although, UK lost four veteran starters on their o-line, this is still a talented unit and they are led by junior Stuart Hines. While their pass protection may be a bit of a work in progress, their run blocking should be superb from the get-go. The Wildcats must capitalize on the physical mismatch up front and exploit the Cardinals’ lack of size.

The strength of this Wildcat offense are their skill guys in Derrick Locke, Randall Cobb, and Chris Matthews. Just like up front, the Cardinal secondary is young and this is a group that really struggled last year. Look for Kentucky to establish their running game early in an attempt to wear down the Cards. If Locke and company are able to have success on the ground, it will do two things. It will force Louisville to  bring an extra guy in the box to stop the run and the long drives will wear down a Cardinal defense that lacks depth. Then, expect Hartline to look for Cobb and Matthews in hopes of a big play.

Hartline has to play mistake free. Like I mentioned earlier, they don’t need him to throw the ball the length of the football field. They need him to put the ball in the playmakers’ hands and let them do the work. When Kentucky is in third-and-long situations, he can’t throw the ball over the middle in traffic. Turnovers allow teams that are less talented to stay in games. You don’t want that. Especially in a rivarly game. Especially in a rivalry game at their place.

You will see Joker go with the “WildCobb” and some other fancy plays in an attempt to keep Louisville off-balance. But, I wouldn’t expect to see Cobb line up under center as much as you did last year. I think you will see a much more balanced and traditional attack from UK this season and it will start on Saturday.

On the other side of the ball, look for the UofL o-line to have the advantage over a young UK d-line. The Cardinal offensive line is probably their most experienced unit and besides Dequin Evans, UK does not possess anyone up front with a ton of experience. Look for the Cardinals to try to take advantage of this and establish both Victor Anderson and Bilal Power in the ground game. They, however, will attempt to slow the game down with their running game in an effort to keep the Wildcat offense off the field. Oh, how things have changed.

I know this goes without saying, but the running game for both teams is going to be huge. I’m not sure how relevant this stat is, but for the last ten years the team with the most rushing yards has brought home the Governor’s Cup.

The Wildcat defense will also have to find a way to defend the spread offense, which has been something they have struggled with in the past. In the past couple of seasons the UK defense, aka Whomp Squad, would perform effectively against conventional offenses. But, so-called gimmick offenses, like the spread, or even something as simple as a running quarterback have always haunted them.

While the defense this season is young, they are a lot quicker. UK radio analyst Jeff Piecoro said yesterday on the Tom Leach Show that the first thing that you notice about this Kentucky defense is how much faster they are. They aren’t big and they don’t have a ton of experience, but their speed should make them better at defending the spread.

The key on Saturday could be OLB Danny Trevathan, who epitomizes UK’s quickness in the middle of the field. He is finally healthy and is ready for a breakout season. By year’s end he could prove to be one of the quickest and most effective linebackers in the SEC.

I mentioned that one of the keys to a Wildcat victory is preventing the big play. Kentucky’s secondary definitely has the advantage over Louisville’s receiving core. With safeties Winston Guy and Mychal Bailey, along with corners Randall Burden and Martavius Neloms, Kentucky should be able to out-physical the Cards and prevent them from going over the top.

You also have to remember that the Louisville coaching staff installed a new offense and this is the first time that the Cards have been forced to execute in a game situation. Expect U of L to make mistakes and when they do, Kentucky has to make them pay.

Kentucky wins this game unless they make mistakes and allow the Cards to hang around. I don’t expect the ‘Cats to run away with it, because they don’t have that quick-hit offense. But, they will establish the run, Locke and Cobb will make big plays and Hartline will control the game.

The ‘Cats get four strait. This time by 14 – Kentucky 31, Louisville 17