The Pinkie Previews Kentucky at Arkansas: Guy’s Breakdown

Like I said earlier today, I’ll be handling the preview of UK’s game on Saturday at Bud Walton Arena versus the Arkansas Razorbacks. Wink is at Morehead checking out the Eagles take on the Panthers of Eastern Illinois, so he’s going to be trying his hand at post game thoughts. Fear not, though, I will still be posting my grades on Sunday with a few other stray thoughts to wrap up the weekend.

Not many more details about Courtney Fortson’s suspension have come to light. What we do know is that John Pelphrey said Fortson was not disciplined for “an isolated incident”, which means there must be some sort of pattern of behavior that is being addressed. Regardless, the important thing for UK is that they will not have to contend with the Razorback’s freshman point guard on Saturday, which is a bit of a relief if you ask me.

Arkansas’ basketball has plenty of names that are familiar to Kentucky fans. It starts with Coach John Pelphrey, who is in his second year leading Arkansas. Pelphrey was Kentucky Mr. Basketball in 1987 for Paintsville before coming to Lexington to play for then-coach Eddie Sutton in 1988. His memorable Kentucky career finished in 1992 as a member of the legendary “Unforgettables” playing for Rick Pitino. He was inducted into the Kentucky Basketball Hall of Fame in 2005 and will forever be a member of Kentucky lore.

Pelphrey spent a couple years toiling in European professional leagues before joining his former coach, Eddie Sutton, at Oklahoma State as an assistant. Pelphrey then latched on with Billy Donovan at Marshall and then Florida, eventually parlaying his success with the Gators into a head coaching gig with the Jaguars of South Alabama. Pelphrey’s 80-67 record at South Alabama, including an NCAA Tournament appearance led to him being probably the 39th choice at Arkansas after a soap opera of a coaching search. One unique piece of trivia: Pelphrey did not succeed Stan Heath as head coach, rather he replaced Creighton coach Dana Altman after his 26 year tenure in Fayetteville.

In his first matchup against his alma mater last year in Rupp Arena, UK defeated Arkansas 63-58. Last year’s win was the 8th straight for the ‘Cats in the series. Overall, UK leads the series 22-7, but the series is tied 4-4 in games played in the inhospitable atmosphere of Bud Walton Arena.

There is really not much from last year’s meeting that we can apply to this year. Both teams look a lot different than they did in 2008. Arkansas is one of the more difficult teams in the SEC to figure out. Their bipolar nature is well documented. They enjoyed wins over Big XII powers Oklahoma and Texas right before SEC play opened on their way to a 12-1 non-conference slate, but they currently occupy the cellar in the Western division with a 1-8 record, managing only a home victory over Alabama.

There is no disputing that Arkansas has talent, even without Courtney Fortson. Forward Michael Washington is among SEC leaders in both points and rebounds, leading the Razorbacks with 16.5 points and 9.7 rebound a contest. He has really emerged this year after averaging under 5 point in each of his first two years in Fayetteville. He’s shooting 56.8% from the field, so he is a very effective offensive player, and with Patrick Patterson likely on the bench, covering him becomes that much more difficult. Perry Stevenson’s athleticism matches up well with him, but Washington will likely find a way to take advantage of his slight frame, particularly on the offensive boards, where he averages 3.4 a game.

Stefan Welsh is another junior who has really stepped up his game in his third year on campus. The 6’3 185 pounder played double digit minutes each of his first two seasons, but he is now averaging 12.6 points, including 2 threes a game. He’s only a 39% shooter overall, so he has a tendency to put up some bad shots. He is a threat, though, and with his quickness and perimeter shooting, he looks a lot like the kind of player who has given UK fits all year, especially since he’s shot 10-23 from beyond the arc in his past three games. Welsh seems to be the most logical choice to guard Jodie Meeks, so that will be something to watch.

Kentucky fans know the names of Arkansas other 3 usual starters well from the recruiting trail. At one point or another, UK and Billy Gillispie were in on Fortson, guard Rotnei Clarke and forward Michael Sanchez. John Pelphrey pounced on all three and they have played immediately and a lot.

We heard all about how much of dead-eye shooter that Rotnei Clarke can be and he has not disappointed, averaging 11 points on the season. He doesn’t offer a great deal in other statistical areas, but UK has to be in his face all game long. He has scored 64 points in his last 5 games, 48 of which have come on threes. He’s another guy that is shooting under 40% from the field (39.7%, including 37.9% on threes), so if they can close on him from beyond the three point line, they should be able to limit the damage he can do.

This kid could pass for a Dookie

Michael Sanchez is a big, strong body at 6’8 240. He averages 6.1 points and 5.0 rebounds a contest. His offensive production has tailed off of late, scoring in double figures in only one of his last eleven games. He’s another guy who is not shooting well (44.7% on the season). Whoever draws Sanchez will need to provide help on Michael Sanchez.

The guy who figures to see his playing time increase the most in the absence of Courtney Fortson (who leads the team in minutes with over 32 per game) is Marcus Britt. The sophomore has started three games, and he averaged 8 points a game in his starts while only averaging 3.5 points per game on the season. He has averaged only .8 assists in his 18 minutes per game, so Fortson’s ability to create will be badly missed. Arkansas averages 13.4 assists a game and Fortson has accounted for nearly half of that production (6.5). Perhaps guys will benefit from having the ball in their hands more often, but in my opinion, Kentucky has the potential to dominate Arkansas defensively, and they are going to need to in order to make up for Patterson’s potential absence.

Arkansas has had a short bench all season. Jason Henry is the only active player I have not mentioned that plays double digit minutes. The freshman swingman is scoring 7.2 points a game to go along with 4.1 rebounds. Their short bench is made shorter by Fortson’s suspension.

Clarke and Welsh are the only guys you can call legitimate outside threats (Britt is shooting 42.1% from three, but on only 19 attempts). The team shoots only 33.8% from distance. Considering that UK has been bad defensively only when teams shoot well from three, I am encouraged. Anybody can get hot, but if UK defends Clarke and Welsh reasonably well from beyond the arc, there aren’t any other guys to beat you.

Before Fortson’s suspension, I was anticipating a dogfight out of the Hogs. Walton is always rocking when UK comes to town and a win in this game could help ease the pain of a very disappointing SEC season for Arkansas. Now, I have no idea what to expect. The crowd will be deflated by his absence, but I could see the team react very well or very badly. UK needs to get off to a good start to crush the confidence of a team that will be without its main playmaker. The longer Arkansas hangs around, the more confident they will become and the more the crowd will begin to smell a win.

Also, I’m looking forward to seeing how this team responds to playing on the road without Patterson. I think that, in some ways, supporting players may be helped by his absence. I think a lot of shots has been passed up because players don’t want to ignore the big guy. If he’s not there, guys know there are more shots to go around. Look for Darius Miller and Kevin Galloway to step up on offense and create with the ball in their hands.

I think this preview officially has started rambling, so I’ll cut it off. UK needs a win Saturday to stay on the right side of bubble talk and I look for UK to get it with some solid D, Jodie being Jodie, and balanced offense from the other guys.