The Pinkie Previews: Kentucky (25-1, 10-1) at Vanderbilt (20-5, 9-2)

The last time the ‘Dores and the ‘Cats tangled, Kentucky was coming off of their first, and only, loss of the season. With the second best team in the SEC coming into Rupp Arena, there were thoughts of possible back-to-back losses. But, the Wildcats rebounded, literally, against the Commodores, handing them their first conference loss of the season.

After being outrebounded by an undersized South Carolina team, Kentucky dominated the glass, 39-21. On the offensive glass their numbers were even more impressive as they had 18 to Vandy’s 3. Even when the Commodores guarded, they couldn’t find ways to close out possessions. For the Pinkie’s full recap of Kentucky 85-72 victory over the ‘Dores, click here.

Since the loss to the Wildcats, the Commodores are 3-1, with their lone defeat a 72-58 loss at Georgia.

Despite the fact that this is a team that the Wildcats have already defeated handily once, Vanderbilt affords them less margin for error than any other opponent in the conference, especially at the much heralded Memorial Gym. Vandy has had some good teams in recent years, but this is the deepest, most talented that Kevin Stallings has had in his tenure.

The ‘Dores lack a go to guy that is a liable to go for 30 pretty much any time out like they had in a Shan Foster or Derrick Byars, but they have a team full of guys that you better account for. They have a ten man rotation, nine guys who play at least 10 minutes a game, and six guys who play at least 20 minutes a game. They don’t have a guy who scores more than 14.8 points per game, but they have four double figure scorers. The ‘Dores average 78.4 points-per-game, which ranks third in the SEC.

The best known player on the Vandy roster is Aussie big man AJ Ogilvy. He’s only a junior, but wow does it seem like he’s been around for a while. Ogilvy took the league by storm as a freshman, averaging 17 points and nearly seven rebounds on a very good Vandy team. He dealt with injuries and defenses centered around stopping him during his sophomore campaign and was a little disappointing.

His junior season got off to another slow start, failing to reach double figures in four of his first nine games. However, he has scored in double figures in 15 of their last 16 games and is averaging 15.6 points in SEC play. In there last contest, an 82-78 win at Ole Miss, he finished with 27 points on 8-of-10 shooting.

Ogilvy is a player with a variety of post moves, but no one is going to mistake him for a power player. He’s nearly 7 feet tall, but he averages just 6.0 rebounds per game. He struggled in his first contest against Kentucky’s bigs, finishing with 12 points, but eight of those came from the line. A lot of his points came late and he was essentially a no factor. For Vanderbilt to upset Kentucky, the big Aussie with highlighted hair has to be a factor.

Sophomore Jeffrey Taylor enters the game averaging 13.9 points, which is second on the team. He has great size for his position and NBA-type athleticism, the kind of athleticism that you aren’t used to seeing in Vandy’s black and gold. He had an outstanding freshman season and continuing to improve this year.

He has the ability to put the ball on the floor and often takes advantages of mismatches at the four-spot. He has a smooth jump shot along with ability to attack the rim. When he attacks, he does it aggressively and forces the referee to blow his whistle. He gets after it on defense and attacks the boards as well, averaging 5.3 per game.

Like Ogilvy, Taylor was a non-factor in their first game against Kentucky, finishing with 10 points and five turnovers. Still, Taylor is the Commodore that most concerns me. If one position has given Kentucky troubles defensively this season, it is the three-spot. Slashers with versatile games have been troublesome for the ‘Cats (think Landry Fields of Stanford). Deandre Liggins emergence at the three has improved Kentucky’s defense at the wing, but whoever is guarding Taylor cannot allow him to get off and gain confidence.

On the home court you have to expect Ogilvy and Taylor to have better games this time around. If both of them are effective, it is going to take a stellar performance from the ‘Cats to pull off the victory.

The floor general for Vandy is another guy who has been around forever, senior Jermaine Beal. Beal had some struggles to start the season. His shot wouldn’t fall and even had a four turnover game. For a guy who has averaged 1.5 turnovers for his career, that’s pretty bad. During SEC play he has really turned it on, averaging an impressive 17.1 points-per-game. His recent strong play also makes him the team’s overall best scorer at 14.8 on the season. In 11 SEC games he has only turned the ball over 18 times.

He’s the only senior contributor on the roster and he’s playing like it. He barely leaves the floor, playing nearly 32 minutes a game. He is also a real threat beyond the arc. On the season he has knocked down 56 threes, which is only two less than all of last season and he is shooting 39-percent from deep. In SEC play he has knocked down less than two three’s only once and that was their last contest at Ole Miss. He has connected on four three’s three times, one of which was the last time out against Kentucky.

Beal’s back court mate and backup point guard is sophomore Brad Tinsley. Tinsley came in as a freshman and played over 30 minutes a game, scoring 11 points per game, but his offensive role has diminished this year. He also shot over 40% from three last year, but has struggled to shoot 30% this year. He’s a serviceable shooting guard and backup point guard, but he is more turnover prone than Beal, and I expect him to see some serious on the ball pressure when he’s running the show. I also expect whichever UK guard he is matched up with on defense to attack him and I’m not sure if he can stick with Wall or Bledsoe.

The final Vandy starter is forward Andre Walker at the four, who does a little bit of everything in his 25.3 minutes on the floor. He’ll score (6.0 points), rebound (5.6 boards), and distribute (2.6 assists). However, I’m just not sure he has the size to match up with a Patrick Patterson.

Vandy has plenty of size on the bench though. Festus Ezeli (6-11, 255) is AJ Ogilvy’s backup and has really developed offensively. He’s still raw, but provides some solid depth and a defensive presence. Vandy’s backups at the forward position are Steve Tchiengang (6-9, 240) and Darshawn McClellan (6-7, 240). Neither averages double figure minutes, but expect to see these guys a lot in an effort to match up with UK’s size.

Another guy you will see at the wing positions is Lance Goulbourne. He’s got some size and a decent stroke from the outside, but don’t expect to see much from him.

Those of you who know Vandy well are probably thinking “Dude, what about John Jenkins?” You’re thinking about right. There isn’t a sixth man of the year award in the SEC, but if there were, he would win it. He plays over 20 minutes a game and is the fourth leading scorer on the team (10.4 points) in spite of starting just one game.

Jenkins is probably the best recruit Vandy has landed in Stallings time at Vandy and is one of, if not the top incoming shooters in this year’s freshman class. He is a lock for the SEC All Freshman team and would be a contender for newcomer of the year honors in any other season. This kid can flat out light it up from deep. He has knocked down 48 threes this season and is shooting 46-percent from beyond the arc.

After missing two games with a stomach illness, he had eight points in 23 mintues against Ole Miss.

Vandy is an excellent offensive ball club, but UK has a huge quickness advantage in the back court and a size and strength advantage on the inside. Both of which were apparent in the last contest. Still, I expect a tight battle this time around. Partly because Memorial Gym is a tough place to play but also because this is a very talented squad. They are positioning themselves towards a top four seed in the NCAA tournament.

I think UK wins this game if Eric Bledsoe and John Wall play within themselves, take what’s given to them, and get the ball to Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins. Also, UK should again do some damage on the boards against a marginal Vandy rebounding team.

Kentucky 82, Vanderbilt 78