The Pinkie Previews SEC Tournament Championship W1 Mississippi State vs E1 Kentucky

I’m on the road back from Florida doing this preview on my MyTouch, so we’ll make this quick. I mentioned before the start of the tourney that an SEC title would be nice but obviosly the ultimate goal is to win six strait starting next week. Yesterday the Cats played like they had no intention of leaving Nashville without the ‘ship.

Mississippi State is playing for tourney life. Some prognosticators have them in, some don’t and some are strait annoying. The Bulldogs would much rather win their second strait SEC tourney and leave it out of the committee’s hands.

Mississippi State has the bodies and the beast underneath to play with Kentucky as evidenced by their overtime defeat to the Cats in starkville. They lock you down defensively and they have the ability to slow down the game, milk the clock and knock down big perimeter shots.

Early this season the biggest concern for the Wildcats was their perimeter defense. The Bulldogs of MSU want to bring that deficiency back to the forefront because they rely on the shot from deep as much as anyone in the country. They have ranked in top ten threes made in country and over 40 percent of their shots are from deep. If the Bulldogs are knocking down shots, they will stay in the game. If not, they will struggle.

My phones dying so all of the below numbers are prior to the last UK MSU game.

Ravern Johnson, a 6’7″ junior, is their best threat from deep and one of the best three-point shooters in the country. He is leading the team in scoring with 13.7 points and has connected on 67 three’s this season, shooting 43-percent. In non-conference play he knocked down at least two three-point shots in all but one game. In SEC play, however, his shooting has suffered a bit. In ten games he is shooting just 28-percent (15-54) and four times he has failed to connect on two three’s.

When he is not knocking down shots, he is pretty much nonexistent on offense. He is long and lean and looks like he should have the ability to get into the lane but he isn’t a threat to score at the rim.

They will also rely on shooting from Dee Bost and Barry Stewart. Dee Bost, a 6’2″ sophomore who is averaging 12.0 points-per-game, has started every game of his career at MSU. Despite his lack of size, he is a strong finisher at the rim. He has struggled with his shooting throughout SEC play but went off in their last contest against Auburn. In the win over the Tigers, he led the Bulldogs with a career-high 32 points and shot 7-for-12 from deep. He entered the Auburn game with a total of just seven threes in SEC play.

He is also the best distributor of the basketball for the Bulldogs and is a good rebounder for his size. He leads the team in assists with 5.2 and averages an impressive 4.6 boards.

Barry Stewart is their second best shooter from deep behind Johnson. A 6’3″ senior, he knocked down at least 60 threes in his first three seasons and is on pace to do it again. He is averaging 11.4 points and has connected on 36-percent of this three-point attempts.

Defensively the Bulldogs rank atop the SEC in both scoring defense and shooting percentage, allowing just 62.6 points and 37-percent shooting. The key to their defensive attack is the play of the 6’9″ senior Jarvis Varnado. Kentucky fans are well aware of his abilities. The last time the Wildcats faced the Bulldogs in Starkville, he finished with 10 blocks to go along with 10 points and 12 rebounds, as he controlled the game and led MSU to victory.

The Wildcats aren’t the only team that Varnado has harassed with his ability to block shots. In fact, he is going to end his career as the all-time leading shot blocker in NCAA history. He enters the UK needing only 16 blocks to claim that record. He is averaging a ridiculous five blocks a game this season.

He is a great off the ball defender, but if there is an issue surrounding his game, it is his size. He is not the thickest defender and opponents have found success against him when they go right at him. Look for DeMarcus Cousins and the rest of the UK bigs to body up Varnado underneath in an attempt to get him off-balance and out of position to redirect shots.

On occasion, because Varnado is such a successful shot blocker, the Mississippi State defense will relax and break down on penetration when he is not available to challenge. A couple times against Auburn the baseline would be wide open when Varnado’s man pulled him out to the elbow.

Against UK look for MSU to implement the 2-3 zone the majority of the game. This defense allows them the best opportunity to limit Wall and Bledsoe’s penetration, forces them into perimeter shots, along with keeping Varnado underneath to challenge shots.

Varnado has always been a great defender but In the last two years he has developed more of an offensive game in the post. He is averaging a career-high 13.3 points along with a career-high 11.3 rebounds, clearly indicating his improvement on the other end of the court. He is especially effective at coming left from the right side with the jump hook from his right hand.

On offense they will often run a four-out-one-in set, which means they surround Varnado with four perimeter shooters. When defenses collapse on Varnado underneath, he is very effective at kicking out to shooters. Late in the shot clock he will step out to the top of the key and set screens. More often than not, he will slip the screen and roll to the basket.

One weakness that Kentucky must exploit is Mississippi State’s lack of depth as 83-percent of their point production comes from their five starters. That lack of depth can be attributed to the loss of Elgin Bailey to an ankle injury Just four games into the year and Renardo Sidney’s still pending eligibility issues.

If the Wildcats can limit MSU’s effectiveness from deep and keep Johnson, Stewart or Bost from catching fire, I don’t think the Bulldogs have the scoring to keep up with the Wildcats. On the other end Kentucky is going to have to be patient against the Bulldogs’ 2-3 zone and remember that Varnado is waiting underneath to redirect shots. If they can get the ball in the middle of the zone and force Varnado to move away from the basket, it should open up the lane for some easy baskets. Some high-low action from Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins should be very effective against the Bulldogs.

Cats take SEC title in Nasville and I go to sleep in the car and look to stop around 1pm to watch it somewhere.

Kentucky 71, Mississippi State 63