The Pinkie Previews: Alabama (13-10, 3-6 ) at Kentucky (22-1, 7-1)

Alabama is a team that scores much better in transition than the do in the half-court. When forced into a half-court game or an offensive set the Crimson Tide struggle to get shots off. Despite these half-court struggles expect Anthony Grant to go against the grain a bit and attempt to slow the game down against the Wildcats. The Elephants of Alabama just do not have the depth or the guard play to run up and down the court with the ‘Cats.

In their last game, a 74-67 loss to Ole Miss, they employed this same type of strategy in an attempt to limit the Rebels’ talented trio of guards. Alabama played well despite the loss. They just haven’t found a way to close out close games. Three of their six conference losses have been by one point and each loss has been a result of not getting a last possession stop.

Against Ole Miss they jumped out to a 40-20 halftime lead, shot 50-percent from the field, 46-percent from deep, and assisted on 16 of 23 field goals, but still found a way to lose the game. Alabama even held a 56-45 advantage with 9:01 left in the second half before Ole Miss responded with a 14-0 run. Alabama then managed only one basket in the final two minutes.

Head coach Anthony Grant said the Tide’s late collapse was a microcosm of their entire season. Their inability to knock down big shots and their lack of depth.

JaMychal Green has been solid underneath all year long, but they have yet to find someone to take pressure off of him from the perimeter. Mikhail Torrence is their best outside shooter and leading scorer, but when the game is on the line the Tide have been unable to find someone to knock down the big shot. A lot of this can be immediately credited to their inability to manufacture points out of their half-court sets.

Alabama is usually in games late because of their defense. On the season they are holding opponents to just 42-percent from the field and only twice have teams shot over 50-percent against them (Kansas State & Florida). In their last 11 games they have allowed opponents to shoot over 40-percent just four times.

They have also been effective at guarding the perimeter, allowing just 32-percent from deep. In a three game stretch that included wins over LSU and Mississippi State, the Tide allowed just six three-pointers combined. Then in their next game, Auburn shot just 3-for-16 from beyond the arc. In conference play opponents are only shooting 25-percent from three range.

Their struggles have come in the rebounding and scoring department. They have been outrebounded by opponents this season but their big problem has been closing out possessions. Too many times they allow opponents second and even third chance opportunities by not bringing down defensive boards. In their 66-65 home loss to Florida, the Gators outrebounded them 35-24 and scored 21 second-chance points to Alabama’s six. Ole Miss outrebounded them 32-26 in their last loss.

Their inability to pull down boards does not bode well for them against a Kentucky that possesses one of the most talented and deepest frontlines in the country.

Like I mentioned earlier, the Crimson Tide offense revolves around the play of 6’9″ sophomore, JyMychal Green. Green, who is second on the team in scoring with 14.7 points-per-game, is a big post guy who has the ability to score in a multitude of ways. Whether he is facing the basket or has his back turned, he will find ways to score and often demands double teams. He has scored in double figures in all but four games this season and is shooting over 51-percent from the floor.

He is also an effective rebounder and shot blocker, averaging a team-leading 7.1 and 2.0 effectively.

Because of their struggles in half-court, the Crimson Tide often rely on shots from the perimeter despite their streaky shooting. Torrance, a 6’5″ senior guard, is their most consistent threat. He leads the team in scoring with 15.3 points and has knocked down 28 threes on the season, while shooting 36-percent. He has scored in double figures in all but one game this season. He is also an effective distributor of the basketball, leading the team in assists with 5.6.

His 22-point performance against the Gators was his sixth 20-point performance of the year. He also matched a career high with five 3-pointers in that contest. A game prior to his stellar performance against Florida, he experienced struggles late against rival Auburn. In the closing 22 seconds, he missed the front end of a one-and-one opportunity that could have given them a three-point lead with 21.9 seconds remaining. Then, with the score tied and Alabama in possession, he turned the ball over, dribbling into a steal by Auburn’s DeWayne Reed, leading to the game winning free throws.

Another example of Alabama not being able to close games late.

Freshman forward Tony Mitchell and junior guard Senario Hillman will also provide scoring for the Tide. Mitchell is averaging 9.3 points on the season but has really come on as of late. He has scored in double figures in six of his last eight and has become more of a threat from deep. He has connected on only 12 three-pointers all season long, but six of them have come in his last four games.

Hillman, who averages 7.6 points-per-game, has seen his numbers go in the opposite direction. He has scored in double figures just twice in conference play.

Charvez Davis and Anthony Brock are the three-point specialists for Alabama, both knocking down more than 31 shots from deep this season. However, their effectiveness as of late has really declined. After connecting on 5-for-7 from deep just four games ago against LSU, Davis has made only one three in his last three games and zero in his last two. Against Ole Miss he managed to see the court for just three minutes.

Brock has made at least one three in all but two SEC games.

Alabama is one of the few teams in the SEC that has the talent necessary underneath to potentially challenge Kentucky. Green and Justin Knox, a 6’9″ 240-pound forward, are physical enough to potentially get the Wildcat bigs into foul trouble and cause problems.

They also could get into DeMarcus Cousins’ head. After Kentucky’s last win over LSU, Cousins complained that he was getting fouled underneath but wasn’t getting the calls. Look for Green and Knox to take this into account and be extremely physical with him.

I still don’t think the Crimson Tide can score consistently enough to hang with the Wildcats. Especially in Rupp Arena.

Kentucky 84, Alabama 69