The Pinkie Maps Out Kentucky’s Path to the Final Four

There has been some unhappiness over the last 24 hours about UK’s draw in the NCAA Tournament. On the face of things, it does look pretty bad. UK could potentially lace ‘em up in the second round, Sweet Sixteen, and Elite Eight against a former number one team in the nation in the second round (Texas), a team that can grind it with the best and could trouble the ‘Cats (Wisconsin), and almost assuredly the two seed with the best case to be a one (West Virginia).

Honestly, though, I’m not nearly as upset some. Yeah, it would be nice to be down South where Duke is sitting, but sooner or later, a national title winning team is going to be stiffly tested. I kind of like the fact that UK will be a little mad about their draw. A mad Kentucky team is a focused Kentucky team and for the first time in a while, the games are going to be just as important to the ‘Cats as their opponent.

Enough of that, let’s take a look at what Kentucky’s potential path to winning the national title will be.

First Round
East Tennessee State Pirates (16)

Nick will be delving a little more deeply into this matchup in his preview on Wednesday, but what’s the deal with the Pirates? They won the Atlantic Sun conference title this year and make their second consecutive trip to the NCAA’s. You may remember them from last year, because they went punch for punch with top seeded Pitt before falling by ten.

This season’s Pirates make their living by forcing turnovers. They will mix in some zone looks and get in the passing lanes. They average 12 steals a game, 33rd in the nation. Offensively, they struggle a bit, but they do get after it on the boards. They are not very effective from three point range. If UK can close out possessions with defensive rebounds and limit turnovers as they did effectively in Nashville.

Second Round
Texas Longhorns (8)

There just aren’t many teams more talented than Texas. There also aren’t any teams who have done as little as Texas has with the talent on their roster. We all remember their number one ranking back in January, but they closed the season 7-9, beating only one Tourney team over that stretch (Oklahoma State twice).

Texas and Kentucky have a lot of similarities on paper: veteran four men (Damion James and Patrick Patterson), giant big men who struggle with foul trouble at times (Dexter Pittman and DeMarcus Cousins), and big time freshman classes. Texas doesn’t have John Wall though. Also, Texas is one of the better open floor teams in the country, but any time a team has tried to run with UK, it just hasn’t worked.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9)

Wake has lost five of six and there’s a pretty good chance, with Ishmael Smith running things, that they’ll try to run with the ‘Cats. They don’t shoot well from the outside and they aren’t very good in the turnover department on either side of the floor. They get after it on the offensive boards, but are not very good on the defensive glass. They have some glaring weaknesses, not much confidence, and will have one day to prepare to play UK. I think UK can exploit them.

Yep, the Deacon drives a motorcycle all the time

Smith and Al-Farouq Aminu are elite players, but they have a bunch of losses that make you scratch your head. If they knock of Texas, there probably stands a chance UK could overlook them, but this is a pretty good matchup for UK.

Sweet Sixteen
Wisconsin Badgers (4)

Lots has been made of how the slow it down style of a team like Wisconsin will give UK trouble. I don’t really give as much credence to this thought as some. UK has been well trained in the take the air out of the ball philosophy throughout SEC play. Yes, Wisconsin is better practiced at implementing it, but SEC opponents have grinded (ground?) it out all year and UK has dealt pretty well with it.

Wisconsin is a conservative team in most every way. They stay home on defense, contest shots, and rebound. On offense, they are mostly happy with holding on to the ball and getting back on defense after a missed shot. Like any team, they are much better when their guards (Jason Bohannon and Trevon Hughes) are hitting shots. They rely on their starters a bunch, with their bench playing just over 25% of their minutes. They are also not a particularly big team, with just one guy over 6-10 (Jon Leuer).

If UK were to stay within themselves in this matchup and a couple outside shots fell, I think UK would handle the Badgers.

Temple Owls (5)

According to Ken Pomeroy, Temple is the third best defensive team in the land. Opponents shoot about 28% from three against them and 42.5% from inside the arc. If they play Wisconsin in the second round, it will really be a match made in heaven. If you really like defense and you really don’t like more than 60 possessions in a game, tune in. I think it will be a toss-up between those two teams if it happens. They are a slightly worse shooting team that Wisconsin, but defensively better, at least according to stats.

Long Shot – Cornell Big Red (12)

A lot of people are pinning Cornell as the hot 12 seed that could do some damage…I don’t see it so much. Yeah, they played Kansas well and yeah they shoot it well from three, but they don’t play good enough defense to make a sustained run. Also, Temple is the second best three point defense in the nation, which will limit the damage they do from deep.

Elite Eight
West Virginia Mountaineers (2)

West Virginia is the highest rated two seed on the S-Curve according to most, so they are the very clear favorite to emerge from the bottom half of the East bracket. Shooting is an issue though. They will run 6-7 guys at you like it’s their job and get after you with Bob Huggins patented man defense. Guard play leaves a bit to be desired, which would give the ‘Cats an advantage. Also, they lack a big who can match up with DeMarcus Cousins.

Nevertheless, they are atletic enough and talented enough to stiffly test the ‘Cats and maybe even make it come down to shooting. They create mismatches for opponents (and themselves) all over the floor, so it would be very interesting.

New Mexico Lobos (3)

New Mexico has been highly rated all season, but they play out west in a non-BCS conference, so most people around these parts don’t know much about them. The Lobos are out to change that. Steve Alford has them playing some serious ball. Darington Hobson, in addition to being quite awesomely named, is a big time player on the wing and does a little bit of everything.

They aren’t really going to scare anybody on defense, but they have a bunch of guys who will take and hit the three. They have a bunch of tweeners on their roster who can do a lot of good things. Even though they don’t have a ton of size, they can rebound the ball very well.

Marquette Golden Eagles (6)

Pretty much anytime you turned on SportsCenter this season, they were giving somebody in the Big East everything they wanted. Unfortunately, they lost a lot more close ones than they won early in the year. Of late, though, they started to win them, closing the season 10-3 with three OT wins. Go ahead and pencil them in as a team likely to be featured in the “One Shining Moment” montage, because their games always come down to the last possession.

Buzz Williams team does it with almost no bench. Lazar Hayward carries a very heavy load for them on offense and defense, including guarding guys way bigger than him. They will hit a lot of threes on you and they just don’t turn the ball over. Their lack of size causes them to struggle on the boards, but they make up for it in heart. Whoever beats them in the Tournament will not do it without dealing with a fight.

Longshots – Clemson Tigers (7), Missouri Tigers (10), Washington Huskies (11)

I just don’t see any of these teams advancing past the second round, but you never know this time of year.