The Pinkie Breaks Down the SEC Race

A big win by the ‘Cats yesterday makes thinking about the rest of season a lot more fun. Things went basically according to script yesterday (with one exception) as all SEC teams were in action.

Here’s what went down:

UK 77 Tennessee 58

Florida 82 Vanderbilt 68-Florida raced out to an early 19-4 lead, and were never challenged by Vandy. There’s something about playing against the ‘Dores for Florida, because they have just shot lights out against them: yesterday they were 10-19 from three and in Nashville they were 15-25. Erving Walker led a balanced scoring attack with 17 points.

Alabama 87 Mississippi State 85-This is State’s second loss in double overtime in their last four games, and this one hurts. The Bulldogs now face a severely uphill climb to get the NCAA Tournament. Alonzo Gee and Senario Hillman led the way for the Tide with 28 and 21 points respectively. The Bulldogs again jacked up three after three, shooting 12-39 yesterday.

Mississippi 69 Georgia 47-Every game Georgia plays the rest of the way is going to make Florida wonder “what got into those guys when they beat us?” Georgia shot a paltry 14-56 (25%) from the field and only Terrance Woodbury reached double figures, with 19. Ole Miss, on the other hand, had four players in double figures, led by terrific freshman Terrico White, who matched Woodbury’s 19.

South Carolina 82 Arkansas 78-Again, Arkansas gave trouble to a top SEC team, this time holding a lead with 59 seconds left in regulation and again to start overtime. Devan Downey got back on track shooting the ball, scoring 25 points on 8-15 shooting (4-7 from three). Let’s hope he got that out of his system, because he is a tough matchup for UK even if he is shooting poorly. Freshman Jason Henry notched his second career double-double (also his second in three games), putting up 27 points and 12 rebounds. Courtney Fortson also put up a double-double, but not the kind you want. He had 12 points and 10 turnovers.

LSU 79 Auburn 72-With the win and Mississippi State’s loss, LSU clinches first place in the SEC West. LSU played its fourth close game in a row, so they are not immortal. Their next two are against Florida and at UK, and I look for them to lose one of those two. Marcus Thornton continued his tremendous senior season, scoring 25 points. He’s scored 22 points or more in 8 of his last 10 games, and is averaging 20.5 points and 5.4 rebounds. With all the backcourt talent in the SEC this year, he may be relegated to second team All SEC behind Nick Calathes, Downey, and Jodie Meeks. You have to think he and Jodie will matchup next weekend in Lexington, which will be a pleasure to watch.

Here’s what the standings look like with two weeks left in the regular season:

Although the SEC West winner is now clear, things are still murky in the East, and figure to come down to the last weekend. We do know that Tennessee is a step behind in the standings, have been swept by UK so would lose a tiebreaker to the ‘Cats, and face road games against the two other teams they trail. They are clearly the underdogs, but don’t count them out.

No one seems to have a clear advantage among the three tied atop the standings in the East, but South Carolina’s schedule is most favorable, hosting UK and UT and traveling to Vandy and Georgia. The only place where things are going to clear up is on the floor in three big midweek games, and that process starts Tuesday in Baton Rouge when LSU hosts Florida. LSU has two national TV games this week in which they will undoubtedly be trying to prove they belong on the big stage. Their seeding could change a pretty big amount based on how they play, so I would not expect them to mail it in having just clinched the West. It will be a big opportunity for both teams, but it will be a stiff test both ways. Florida struggles on the road, and the Pete Maravich Assembly Center will be rocking, so I predict that LSU will win.

The second big game this week comes when UK visits South Carolina in Columbia on Wednesday. UK will come in a very confident team, but Devan Downey and the Gamecocks already stole a win in Rupp. South Carolina is perfect at home and UK is the only team besides LSU in the SEC with a winning record on the road, so something has to give. I’m guessing this one will come down to the last minute just like it did in Lexington, but I think a healed Patrick Patterson makes the difference and UK will take a lead by itself in the East.

The last big game is the second half of a Lincoln Financial Sports doubleheader on Wednesday when Mississippi State heads to Knoxville for what I have to believe is an elimination game for the NCAA’s. Both teams are 7-5 in conference with 10 losses overall. Tennessee is still using a top 25 RPI ranking to stay on the right side of the bubble, but could ill afford another loss at home. Mississippi State, on the other hand, has fallen to 85 in the RPI, and needs wins fast. I see the Vols rebounding from their poor performance Saturday and dealing a death blow to State’s season.

These three games feature the six SEC teams that harbor realistic hopes to make the NCAA Tournament. I think LSU’s win this weekend takes them from near lock for the Tournament to mortal lock, but let’s take a look at the chances of the other 5 and their remaining schedules:

South Carolina (UK, @Vandy, Tennessee, @UGA)-The Gamecocks are closing in on a berth in the NCAA’s, but they still need to win a couple more games to be comfortable. The RPI is pretty good at 45, but they lack a real put-you-over-the-top quality win that would give them some room for error. Regardless, they look like a pretty solid bet. Predicted finish: 3-1; NCAA chances: 75/25

Florida (@LSU, Tennessee, @Miss. St., UK)-A win at LSU likely locks them up, but they’re still not there yet. They have a better profile that South Carolina (42 RPI with a win over number 18 Washington), but I put their chances just below the Gamecocks due to a more difficult finishing schedule. Predicted finish: 2-2; NCAA chances: 70/30

Kentucky (@USC, LSU, Georgia, @Florida)-They have a similar looking profile to Florida and South Carolina, except for that 62 RPI because of a lot of wins over 200+ RPI teams. They do have three top 25 wins (West Virginia-neutral, @UT, UT), which pretties up that resume. Just a few days ago, I listed their chances below 50%, but that was largely due to uncertainty about Patterson. Having Patterson back steadies this team a ton, and they can feel a much better. Predicted finish: 3-1; NCAA chances: 60/40

Tennessee (Miss. St., @Florida, @South Carolina, Alabama)-The loss on Saturday was damaging, but it was not nearly as troubling as the way they lost. It’s never a good thing when a coach says his team “quit”. Their saving graces are the strong RPI and the SOS rank of 2. They have some nice wins out of conference, including two over Big East opponents in Georgetown and Marquette, but if they venture much farther into double digit losses, they might not matter. Predicted finish: 2-2; NCAA chances: 50/50

Mississippi State (@Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, @Ole Miss)-Like I said, they are one loss from being removed from this group entirely. Nothing less than a 3-1 finish in conference and two wins in the SEC Tournament does it for them at this point. Predicted finish: 2-2; NCAA chances: 10/90