Monday Look at UK by the Numbers

Believe it or not, December is fast approaching. With Thanksgiving behind us, college basketball is finally about to start basking in the spotlight of the sports world and if you ask me, it’s not a second too late.

Now, most college teams have played out about half of their non-conference schedules, which means that statistics and rankings are beginning to have a shred of significance. I’m a nerd and I love stats, so starting today and continuing in the coming weeks as the season unfolds, we will be looking at some of the most significant numbers, stats, and rankings in UK basketball.

The Race to 2000

With UK’s 6-0 start, the winningest program in college basketball now has 1,994 wins. UK is preparing to enter the most difficult part of the non-conference schedule, including a matchup next Saturday against the second winningest program, North Carolina (1,989 wins). A UK win over UNC will all but guarantee that the ‘Cats will reach 2,000 first.

Let’s look at how the schedule plays out:

UNC-Asheville (Louisville) – Likely win
North Carolina – Toss-up
UConn (NYC) – Toss-up
@Indiana – Likely win
Austin Peay – Likely win
Drexel – Likely win
Long Beach State – Likely win
Hartford – Likely win

The three toughest games in this stretch are UNC, UConn, and IU. If UK wins 2 out 3 and take care of business in the others, they will win number 2,000 against Long Beach State on December 23. If UK wins just 1 of 3, number 2,000 will come against Hartford on December 29. If UK wins the next 6, number 2,000 will come against Drexel on December 21.

Individual Statistics

John Wall – 19.8 points per game (t-35th nationally)
6.6 assists per game (t-12th nationally)
7.4 free throws made per game (9th nationally)

Patrick Patterson – 10.8 rebounds per game (t-15th nationally)
69.6 field goal % (2nd nationally)

DeMarcus Cousins – 2.7 blocks per game (31st nationally)

Daniel Orton – 1.7 blocks per game (t-88th nationally)

RPI

I know, I know, it’s borderline ridiculous to be looking at the RPI standings at this point in the season. Don’t pretend like you’re not interested in knowing though.

The most recent rankings have UK at 41st nationally, which is purely a reflection of UK’s schedule to this point. Only Sam Houston State of UK’s 6 wins is ranked in the top 100 of the RPI as of today. A look at the current top 20 in the RPI (yes, that’s William & Mary at #10) tells you that you can’t put too much faith in the numbers right now, but it’s good news that UK is already this high.

Highest rated team in the SEC are currently Vanderbilt (22), Florida (29), Auburn (44), Ole Miss (49).

Ken Pomeroy

KenPom.com’s numbers are my favorite. The idea of looking at basketball on a per possession basis rather than a gross number perspective is so simple, yet such an important distinction. The result is a way to measure teams against one another that adjusts for pace of play.

UK, to this point in the season, is ranked number 77 in the country.

UK’s offense scores an average of 104.9 points per 100 possessions (119th in the country) and gives up an average of 91.7 points per 100 possessions (79th nationally). Looking at how UK arrives at those total rankings, you can clearly see one area that UK must improve upon throughout the season: turnovers.

Offensively, UK is 20th in the country in Effective FG%, 3rd in Offensive Rebounding % (rebounding 46.1% of their own misses), and 23rd in the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts.
However, the fourth major component of the offensive efficiency rating is Turnover %.

You don’t need stats to say that UK has turned the ball over too much this season, but the stats do point that direction. UK is 320th in the country out of 347 teams in offensive turnover percentage.

On the defensive end, UK is solid in Effective FG% (54th nationally), good in FTA/FGA (84th), above average in Offensive Rebounding % (126th), and really bad in Turnover % (257th).

Again, it’s not exactly an earth shattering revelation to say that UK has turned ball over too much offensively and not forced enough turnovers defensively, but a look at these numbers goes to show how good UK can really be if they do improve in that area.

Nick will have his preview of the UNC-Asheville game in Freedom Hall later today, so keep an eye out for that. The fighting Kenny George’s have had a very rough beginning to the season, including a 75 point loss to Tennessee, so this should be one of the poorer opponents UK faces this season.