The Pinkie Previews: Mississippi State (3-5, 1-3) at Kentucky (4-3, 1-3)

The Mississippi State-Kentucky game is a game that both teams feel like they need to win. I know, every time a team takes they field they feel like they need to win. But, this game is different. Every year the matchup between the ‘Dawgs and the ‘Cats serves as sort of a swing game. They both mark their calendars at the beginning of the year and check this game. If they want to achieve what they set out to do at the beginning of the year, this is always a critical game.

Mississippi State enters this contest coming off of a 29-19 loss against #1 Florida. However, they entered the fourth quarter trailing only 16-13 and with Kentucky and Mississippi State playing at nearly the same time last week, this score raised some concern for many fans at Commonwealth.

However, statistics show that the game really wasn’t that close. You can say the same exact thing about Kentucky’s 36-13 victory over Louisiana-Monroe. The Bulldog defense allowed the Gators to run for 249 yards rushing, but were able to keep them out of the endzone. They held them to two 20-yard field goals and also had a 100-yard interception return touchdown from Jonathan Banks.

On offense, Mississippi State never really got it going. Their running game, which is their strength, could only muster 92 yards and they were held out of the endzone offensively. Both of their touchdowns were interception returns by Banks, the 100-yard return at the end of the first half that made it 13-10 and a 20-yard return at the end of the game that made the score more respectable.

Mississippi State defeated Kentucky 31-14 in 2007, the last time they visited Lexington. Last season, UK squeaked out at 14-13 victory in Starkville.

They have won their last two road games, a 15-3 victory at Vanderbilt in the third week of the season, their lone SEC win, and a 27-6 win at Middle Tennesse.

With only four games remaining on their schedule, they must defeat Kentucky if they even want to even sniff a bowl game opportunity. If they don’t, they will be forced to run the table to get to a bowl, which will be a monumental task. They face #2 Alabama at home, go to Little Rock to play Arkansas and close out the season at home against Ole Miss.

Under new head coach Dan Mullens, Mississippi State is scoring at a much higher rate. They have been held under 20 points only twice this season and have already compiled 211 points on the season. They have only surpassed the 300-point plateau four times in school history. At this pace, they will do it for the fifth time, with 317 points.

Like I mentioned earlier, the strength of this MSU team is  their running game and they are led by senior tailback Anthony Dixon. They run the ball nearly 64-percent of the time and have gained 1,625 yards (203.1 ypg) on the season, which ranks 18th nationally and fourth in the SEC in yards per game.

In their win at Middle Tennessee, Dixon surpassed Jerious Norwood’s school record for rushing yards in school history. He sits at 3,352 in his career, which ranks fifth in SEC history, as well. He is also MSU’s career leader in rushing attempts, touchdowns, 100-yard games, points scored and he ranks fourth in all-purpose yards.

This season, he has 749 yards, which ranks 15th in the country and third in the Southeastern Conference.

At 6-1, 235-pounds, Dixon is a bruising back with breakaway speed in the open field. The one knock on his game is his propensity to dance a bit, instead of just breaking through holes, but he has cut down on that a bit this season.

Their passing attack is led by senior quarterback Tyson Lee. The first thing that catches your eye, when looking at Lee’s statistics on the season, is his nine interceptions and three touchdowns. Some of those picks have come late in the game, with the Bulldogs feeling a little bit of desparation, and some have been tipped, but there is no way to make a 1-to-3 touchdown to interception ratio look good.

He has thrown for 1,126 yards and has completed nearly 60-percent of his passes this season. At times, he has also been a threat to run, rushing for 163 yards on the season with two touchdowns, including a 39-yard scamper at Middle Tennessee.

But, at just 5-10, Lee sometimes struggles seeing over the line and that is reason for some of his tipped passes, but MSU really does not have anyone else to go to.

Sophomore Chris Relf could also see some time under center. Relf is a running quarterback, who was extremely effective earlier in the season. He ran for 178 yards in the first three games, but has only seen action in one of their last three games.

On the defensive side of things, the Bulldogs are strong up front and have three talented linebackers. The UK offensive line will be forced to pay a lot of attention to junior DE Pernell McPhee. McPhee has 33 tackles on the season, 7.5 for a loss, and has recorded four sacks.

Despite Banks’ successes in their game against Florida, the secondary is still considered the weak link of the MSU defense. All season long they have had the inability to stop the big play. About midway through the season, they made some personnel changes and went younger with guys like Banks and Corey Bloomfield, a true freshman and a redshirt freshman. They have seen slight improvement but they are extremely inexperienced.

The key to this game is going to be the Mississippi State running game. With Micah Johnson playing at less than 100-percent, the Bulldogs are going to have to run the ball against a depleted UK defense to be successful. MSU loves to run the football as often as they possibly can. They want to get a lead and control the clock  by just handing the ball off to Dixon over and over again.

If Kentucky, on the other hand, can find a way to get their passing game going and beat the MSU secondary for some big plays early to grab a quick lead, it is going to be tough for the Bulldogs to get back in the game.

Simply put, you want these Bulldogs to play from behind and force them to rely on the arm of Tyson Lee.