The Pinkie Breaks Down the SEC Race

Another full set of SEC games, another set of teams suffers serious blows to their NCAA chances. Let’s jump straight to the action from Tuesday and Wednesday:

Vanderbilt 77 UK 63-Still trying to forget this.

LSU 72 Arkansas 69-It seems like UK was the only team that Arkansas has not had a lead on in SEC play. LSU trailed by as many as 18 early, but Marcus Thornton helped them to a close victory with 28 points. Courtney Fortson returned to the Hogs and put up 17 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists.

Mississippi 81 Tennessee 65-Tennessee is not a good enough offensive team to survive a second half where they give up 47 points. Ole Miss beat UT on the boards by 7 and shot 23-37 from inside the arc on their way to dealing the Vols a crippling loss.

Mississippi State 75 South Carolina 70-Mississippi State continued to jack up three (26), but this time they hit enough (9) to overcome a halftime deficit. Devan Downey is having trouble putting the ball in the hoop after back to back great games against UK and Florida in which he averaged 28 points, shot over 50 percent, and hit 10-14 from 3. In his last three games, he is shooting only 17-57 (29.8%). Let’s hope he’s still cold when UK heads to Columbia next week.

Florida 83 Alabama 74-What’s this? An SEC East contender gets a win? This was one of those games where a first look at the stats makes you think that Florida would have lost. They were outrebounded 41-34 and they shot only 40.3%. An advantage at the foul line, at the three point line, turning the ball over only 9 times, and Nick Calathes (22 points and 5 steals) allowed them to get a win.

Auburn 71 Georgia 59-This was the game nobody really cared about. Georgia came back to earth in a big way after knocking off the Gators for their first SEC win, scoring only 19 points on their way to 16 point halftime deficit. They shot 30.5% from the field for the game after shooting over 57% against Billy D’s boys (can you say “aberration”?). Tay Waller scored 20 points for the overachieving Tigers.

Here’s what these games did to the SEC standings:

Congrats to the LSU Tigers, who are probably one or two wins from sewing up the SEC title. Trent Johnson has done a phenomenal job with this team. John Brady was never without talent, and I think Trent Johnson is showing how bad of a coach he was (did he really make it to the Final Four?!?!). I think it’s pretty safe to say the Tigers are a lock for the Tournament. Even if they’re not, they are undoubtedly the closest thing to it in a muddled SEC.

The four teams atop the SEC East all have a shot at the Tournament, along with Mississippi State in the West. Let’s look at the remaining schedules and each team’s chances at heading to the Dances:

South Carolina (Arkansas, UK, @Vandy, Tennessee, @UGA)-A much more favorable schedule, but those three games in the middle could spell trouble. I think that the Tennessee-USC game is going to be a big one, and I look for the Vols to win on the road, but the easy schedule still gives the Gamecocks the inside track in East. Predicted finish: 3-2; NCAA chances: 70/30

Tennessee (@UK, Miss. St., @Florida, @South Carolina, Alabama)-With that remaining schedule, Tennessee is going to have to earn its spot. Fortunately for UT, they have that 22 RPI in their back pockets. Predicted finish: 2-3; NCAA chances: 60/40

Florida (Vandy, @LSU, Tennessee, @Miss. St., UK)-The trip to LSU is tough, but LSU has played a lot of close ones lately, so I have that one circled. A win for Florida would go a long way toward making up for the loss to UGA. Predicted finish: 3-2; NCAA chances: 50/50

Kentucky (Tennessee, @USC, LSU, Georgia, @Florida)-There are 3 home dates in there, but two are against tough opponents. Amazingly, Kentucky still controls its own destiny in the SEC East, but it’s not easy. The RPI is in the danger zone (65), but the potential is there for it to go up. With or without Patterson, it’s going to be an uphill climb. It’s a harsh reality, but we have to face up to it: Kentucky is an underdog to make an NCAA trip. Predicted finish: 2-3; NCAA chances: 35/65

Mississippi State (@Alabama, @Tennessee, Auburn, Florida, @Ole Miss)-Mississippi State kept its hope alive by beating South Carolina, but that RPI is really bad (78). They need to get to 11 wins or I think they will be left out, but a win at Tennessee changes things quite a bit. Predicted finish: 3-2; NCAA chances 20/80

If this plays out as I have outlined (although, let’s face it, there’s not a chance that’ll happen), Florida and South Carolina will get the byes in the East, and UK will have to win at least two Tournament games to think about the NCAA’s. I think we can be assured that, whatever happens, stakes will be even higher than usual in Tampa with all the Tourney bids up in the air. Stay tuned for my weekend wrap-up on Monday morning.