Kentucky Player Trend Analysis

There are four games left in the regular season. Wow. At the most, we get to watch John Wall play in a Kentucky uniform for 13 more games…almost brings a tear to my eye.

UK has accomplished an awful lot on the way to a 26-1 record, but if expectations are going to be met, UK’s biggest achievements are still on the horizon. I’ve been wondering quite a bit about whether the ‘Cats are primed to peak at the right time. Cal’s ‘Cats had arguably their most significant week of basketball this past week when they pulled off two hard fought road victories, but are they positioned to play their best basketball the rest of the way.

My gut says ‘yes’, but that’s not quite enough for me.

Basketball, unlike any other sport in my opinion, is an amazing blend of individual play and team play. This edition of UK basketball has always been a stunning assembly of individual ability. The question has always been whether UK will ever get to the point where the team as a whole exceeds the sum of the parts (or maybe even equals it).

I really do believe UK is playing more and more effectively as a team. Team defense and communication has improved drastically, to the point where defense, not offense, allowed UK to pick up the ‘Cats best win of the season in Nashville. Even though John Wall and company have been far less able to get out and run like they want, UK is getting the right guys involved at the right times, even though bad shots and worse turnovers are still pretty common.

All that is highly subjective though and since basketball is so much about the individuals, I’m going to be looking at all the guys in UK’s rotation and how each is performing with a specific eye on whether their play is trending up or down. Enough rambling, let’s get down to it.

John Wall
Season – 16.8 PTS,6.3 AST, 4.1 REB, 4.0 TO, 46.3% FG, 34.7% 3′s
Last Five – 16.6 PTS, 4.2 AST, 6.6 REB, 3.4 TO, 39.1% FG, 18.8% 3′s

John Wall got off to such a phenomenal start to the season in so many ways. He scored, he distributed, he hit game winners. His unbelievable start made his decent start to SEC play look pedestrian by comparison.

In my opinion, he has adjusted very, very well the past five games and is playing his best basketball. Maybe the shot isn’t falling like it was and maybe the assists are down slightly, but John Wall is running this UK team better than he has all season. He is making better decisions with and without the ball, he is asserting himself when it’s appropriate, and he is getting to the foul line again, a surefire sign that he is being the aggressor when he should be. In his last four games, he has gotten to the line at least eight times.

Also, Wall is hitting the boards with a vengeance and playing his best defense. Take Saturday for example. He was assigned to guard Vandy sharpshooter John Jenkins for much of the night. Jenkins ran him off screens all game, but Wall stuck right with him and held a great shooter to only one three.

In short, John Wall is not a concern for this team.

TRENDING – UP

Patrick Patterson
Season – 14.8 PTS, 7.6 REB, 57.4% FG, 40.4% 3′s, 64.6% FT’s
Last Five – 13.4 PTS, 7.8 REB, 46.4% FG, 35.7% 3′s, 83.3% FT’s

Particularly in UK’s last two games, I have absolutely loved the way Patrick Patterson has played. He’s been demanding the ball, he’s been getting after it on the boards, and he is taking it upon himself to act as the THE leader on this team.

After failing to notch a double-double for nearly two months, he has such performances in back to back outings. Plus, he’s starting to his free throws again.

TRENDING – UP

DeMarcus Cousins
Season – 16.1 PTS, 10.1 REB, 54.5% FG, 63.7% FT, 1.0 AST
Last Five – 15.6 PTS, 11.6 REB, 55.1% FG, 55.8% FT, 1.6 AST

DeMarcus is becoming more and more unstoppable every time out. Opponents have forced him to post farther and farther from the basket, but he has added a little 8 foot jump hook in response. Additionally, he’s faced double teams a bunch lately, and has really stepped up his passing game. Whenever I hear people compare Cousins to Shaq, one thing I always say is that Shaq was an excellent passer. Cousins is making strides in this area.

Big Cuz has also turned into the best rebounder in the nation. In fact, he had double digit boards nine straight games until Vandy. Plus, he’s on the floor more because he is in better condition and is fouling less. He has played 20 minutes or more every game except one in SEC play and is consistently playing 25-30 minutes.

TRENDING – UP

Eric Bledsoe
Season – 10.7 PTS, 3.3 AST, 3.0 REB, 3.5 TO, 37.5% 3′s
Last Five – 9.8 PTS, 2.4 AST, 2.2 REB, 2.4 TO, 22.2% 3′s

Eric has played a couple very good games lately, especially against Tennessee, but he has had a bit of trouble lately. His confidence in his outside shot has wavered a bit, which has caused Calipari to look to other options more to play alongside Wall. He is still trying to do too much with the ball at times, but has cut down on the turnovers slightly.

TRENDING – FLAT

DeAndre Liggins
Season – 4.0 PTS, 2.7 REB, .8 AST, 42.9% 3′s, 16.1 MIN
Last Five – 6.0 PTS, 5.0 REB, 1.8 AST, 31.3% 3′s, 24.8 MIN

I just can’t get over the emergence of DeAndre Liggins. He’s gone from forgotten (and suspended man), to sparkplug off the bench, to crunchtime mainstay at the three. He’s provided his patented defense all along and now he is beginning to contribute in other areas as well.

He reverted against Vandy during a couple plays, but has been attacking the boards, shooting confidently, and making plays when they are there. He’s going to be a key component to what UK does the rest of the way.

TRENDING – UP

Daniel Orton
Season – 3.4 PTS, 3.5 REB, 1.5 BLK, 48.5% FG
Last Five – 2.8 PTS, 3.2 REB, 1.8 BLK, 60% FG

Early in SEC play, Orton’s minutes were a bit sporadic, but he has settled into a defense and rebounding role for around 15 minutes a night. Another positive development is that he has shown the ability to play alongside DeMarcus Cousins for extended stretches, which will allow him to stay on the floor more.

TRENDING – FLAT

Darius Miller
Season – 6.3 PTS, 2.2 REB, 1.7 AST, 39.1% 3′s, 20.7 MIN
Last Five – 2.8 PTS, .8 REB, 1 AST, 22.2% 3′s, 13.0 MIN

Darius reentered the starting lineup on Saturday against Vandy and showed some of the assertiveness his game has been missing, but he is still very much trying to find himself on this team. Any significant contribution he gives will be a bonus at this point, even though I still have high hopes for him the remainder of his career.

TRENDING – DOWN

Darnell Dodson
Season – 6.8 PTS, 2.5 REB, 37.4% 3′s
Last Five – 2.8 PTS, 1.8 REB, 13.3 3′s

Darnell played well enough to enter the starting lineup for six straight games, before starting on the bench in Nashville. In his first three recent starts, he had 38 points combined, but fell silent since, scoring just six points in his last four games. Dodson is not going to see many minutes in crunch time, but UK needs him to provide offense while he is on the floor for 10-20 minutes during the first half and early second. If he can hit the outside shot in those minutes, the ‘Cats are that much more dangerous.

TRENDING – DOWN

So, out of the eight guys in UK’s trimmed down rotation, four are trending “up” in my estimation, two are “flat”, and two are “down”. I think that’s pretty good. We know about what we’re going to get out of Wall, Patterson, Cousins, Bledsoe, Orton, and Liggins, but not so much out of the two guys who aren’t playing well in Dodson and Miller.

We’ve said contributions at the three would be a question mark all year. Liggins has emerged as a defensive presence and scorer when necessary, but still, UK could use more consistency from Miller and/or Dodson.