An early look at UK’s ’09-’10 rotation

When I found out once and for all that Xavier Henry would stick with his Kansas commitment, I immediately started wondering “How is John Calipari going to structure the rotation for his first team at Kentucky?” I figured that the best predictor of next year’s rotation would be the rotations for Calipari’s last few teams at Memphis.

Consequently, I researched a little bit into how minutes were distributed for John Calipari’s last 4 teams as the head coach of the Tigers. What I found is that Calipari has been very consistent in the depth of his rotation and his starting lineup. I consider a player “in the rotation when he averages over 10 minutes per game and plays in a majority of the team’s games:

2008-2009:
-9 man rotation
-5 players started at least 27 of team’s 37 games
-Same 5 players averaged at least 25 mpg
-1 player averaged more than 30.2 minutes

2007-2008:
-9 man rotation
-5 players started at least 33 of team’s 40 games
-Same 5 players averaged at least 25 mpg
-No player played more than 29.5 mpg

2006-2007:
-8 man rotation
-5 players started at least 35 of team’s 37 games
-7 players played at least 20 mpg
-No player played more than 28 mpg

2005-2006
-9 man rotation
-6 players started at least 21 of team’s 37 games
-Each of those 6 played at least 21.1 mpg
-No player played more than 27.3 mpg

As you can see, Calipari has used a 9 man rotation in 3 of the past 4 seasons and has found a pretty consistent starting lineup by the end of each year. Calipari’s starters generally get the bulk of the minutes and the 3 or 4 players off the bench play around 15 minutes a game. Also, in 2008-2009 Calipari had 2 players play 30 minutes a game (Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier), and that was the only time he had a player play that many minutes in the last 4 seasons.

I believe we can expect basically the same the same during the upcoming season. Let’s take a look at the 9 men who I believe will fit into this rotation. Players in bold are expected starters.

John Wall – G
Eric Bledsoe – G
Darius Miller – G/F
Patrick Patterson – F
DeMarcus Cousins – F/C
Daniel Orton – F/C
Ramon Harris – F
Darnell Dodson – G/F
DeAndre Liggins – G/F

The 3 players that I do not believe will factor into the rotation are Perry Stevenson, Josh Harrellson, and Jon Hood. I think each will get chances early in the year as Calipari learns his team, but I see the rotation shaking out like this.

Some will also argue against Ramon Harris factoring in the rotation, but Calipari has reportedly liked his defense. If you look at Calipari’s last 4 Memphis teams, it has been Antonio Anderson who has led the team in minutes the past 4 years. His defense got him minutes even though he average double figures just once. For this reason, I think you will see Ramon Harris on the court this year.

I also think DeAndre Liggins will be a part of the rotation because of his ability to play point guard in case Bledsoe and Wall are on the bench and the small forward position due to his size. I see him playing 15 minutes or so per game.

I also think that it is likely that 6 players on this years roster will play at least 20 minutes a game (5 starters plus Daniel Orton). You will notice that I include only 3 natural post players in the rotation. Patrick Patterson figures to play 30 minutes a game at either the 4 or 5 (maybe even the 3 from time to time), which leaves 50 minutes at those two positions. I think Orton and Cousins will get the vast majority of those minutes.

Also, people who have not been hearing reports about the pickup games in Lexington may be surprised to see Eric Bledsoe along John Wall in my forecasted backcourt. Bledsoe has been a revelation in these games, giving John Wall everything he wants and more. I think Bledsoe and Wall will be able to play very effectively together, although you have to imagine that a lineup with Wall and Bledsoe will see plenty of zone defense. That will put pressure on Darius Miller or whoever is playing the 3 to hit the outside shot. Even so, can you imagine a bigger upgrade in ballhandling in the backcourt from last season with these 2 playing together? Bring on the ball pressure!

Let’s take a look at how I see the minutes being divvied up at each position when UK plays a close game. Expect the 3 players not listed in the rotation to steal a minute or 2 here or there, but for simplicity’s sake I have excluded them.

PG – Wall (25), Bledsoe (10), Liggins (5)
SG – Bledsoe (13), Miller (10), Wall (5) Dodson (5), Liggins (7)
SF – Miller (15), Dodson (10), Liggins (7), Harris (8)
PF – Patterson (25), Cousins (5), Orton (5), Harris/Miller (5)
C – Cousins (17), Orton (17), Patterson (6)

Comment below if you disagree with any of this!

Tags: daniel orton, darius miller, darnell dodson, deandre liggins, demarcus cousins, eric bledsoe, john calipari, john wall, kentucky wildcats, Memphis Tigers, patrick patterson, ramon harris, robert dozier

Category: Kentucky